Bitcoin Must Break $97K To Restore Confidence Among Youngest Long-Term Holders – Details

Jupiter plans to unlock 53.74 million JUP tokens (about 1.73% of its released supply) on 28 December 2025 at 2 PM UTC. As documented by Tokenomist here, periodic token unlocks introduce new supply to the market, which may heighten volatility and prompt downward price reactions if absorption from buyers is insufficient. Monitoring wallets receiving unlocked tokens can provide additional clues to potential short-term market trends.

Hyperliquid will unlock 9.92 million HYPE tokens, representing about 2.59% of its released supply, at 7:30 AM UTC. According to the tokenomics outlined by Tokenomist here, such unlocks increase the circulating supply, which can exert downward pressure on price if demand does not keep pace. Traders should monitor liquidity and major holders' activity around the unlock, as significant token releases have historically preceded elevated volatility and sometimes price retracements.

On 31 December 2025 at 12 AM UTC, Optimism will unlock 31.34 million OP tokens, accounting for approximately 1.65% of its released supply. This scheduled release, detailed in the token supply calendar at Tokenomist here, could increase selling pressure as recipients may choose to realize gains. Historically, such events can create short-term price weakness unless offset by corresponding increases in ecosystem activity or large buyer interest.

Asset manager WisdomTree is first to market with an Ethereum exchange-traded product (ETP) that uses Lido, rather than a centralized entity, to earn staking rewards. 

The WisdomTree Physical Lido Staked Ether ETP, which debuted Thursday under the ticker LIST, holds only stETH minted by Lido, “offering a structure that avoids the unstaked buffers traditional products often use for creations and redemptions,” the firm wrote in a statement. 

The ETP will trade in Europe on the Deutsche Börse Xetra, SIX Swiss Exchange, and Euronext in Paris and Amsterdam. 

It reportedly hit the market with $50 million in committed assets under management, larger than some existing ETH-based funds like Invesco’s $27 million QETH fund and 21 Share’s $29 million TETH funds, according to SoSoValue. 

The fund is a significant first step towards the legitimization of decentralized finance by traditional asset managers, which tend to rely on centralized service providers like Coinbase Custody or in-house options to stake their assets held under management. 

VanEck filed for a Staked Ethereum ETF in October.

While staking products first debuted globally as early as 2019, it is a relatively new phenomenon in the U.S. Although key regulators like the Securities and Exchange Commission are more permissive of crypto experimentation during the second Trump administration, relatively few issuers have enabled staking, which locks up assets to secure a network in exchange for token rewards.

REX‑Osprey launched the first U.S. ETF offering SOL exposure with native staking rewards in July under an uncommon regulatory structure, while Grayscale’s ETH and ETH-mini funds were the first approved to stake billions worth of managed assets in October. 

BlackRock, issuer of ETHA, the largest Ethereum trust traded on an exchange, with nearly $11.5 billion in AUM, is reportedly mulling staking options.

“Europe has established a clear regulatory framework for physically backed crypto ETPs, including those that hold staked assets,” WisdomTree noted. “In this environment, launching LIST demonstrates how stETH can be incorporated into regulated market infrastructure and accessed through the channels institutions already use.”

Lido staking

Lido was a pioneer in liquid staked tokens and remains the largest issuer. Its stETH accounts for just under 25% of the Ethereum-based LSTs today, according to Dune. Users deposit ETH to Lido, which locks the tokens to accrue daily staking rewards while issuing stETH, a token that is freely usable across DeFi.

To some extent, Lido is a potential solution to problems caused by Ethereum’s proof-of-stake lockup mechanism, which features bonding and unbonding queues as part of its security mechanism, preventing asset managers from making immediate decisions about capital allocation. 

That said, Lido is not without controversy. Most notably, some Ethereum community members see the protocol as a centralizing force, particularly in the past when it accounted for a greater share of the liquid staking derivatives market. 

WisdomTree notes Lido distributes stakes around 8.5 million ETH across more than 650 node operators globally, while roughly $10 billion of stETH is used as collateral across DeFi.

“Lido Staked Ether sits at the centre of Ethereum’s transition to a yield-bearing network,” WisdomTree Director of Digital Asset Research Dovile Silenskyte said. The combination of income and utility within Lido Staked Ether reflects the growing maturity of the digital asset ecosystem and its evolution toward more functional, long-term use case.”

WisdomTree currently has approximately $139.5 billion in assets under management globally.

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

© 2025 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Mike McGlone, chief commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has opined that Bitcoin might be the leading indicator of the next recession. 

He argues that some asset-price signals (gold at record highs, falling Treasury yields, rebounding equity volatility) look like early warning signs historically associated with major economic reset events.

Bitcoin is a high-beta risk asset whose price reacts quickly to changes in global risk sentiment. If the flagship cryptocurrency starts to fall sharply, it may be an early market signal that leverage is unwinding. 

$10,000 price target 

McGlone has maintained a consistently bearish outlook on Bitcoin throughout the past two months. He argues that Bitcoin's sharp decline from its 2025 peaks indicates the onset of post-inflation deflationary pressures. 

This is a similar pattern to the one that was observed in 2007 when the Federal Reserve began easing rates, only for markets to eventually crater. 

McGlone frequently points to Bitcoin's tendency toward mean reversion. He has predicted that the cryptocurrency could revisit the $50,000 level, potentially plunging even lower toward $10,000 in a more severe scenario.

He has been consistently bullish on gold. The yellow metal has managed to shine in 2025 while Bitcoin, crude oil, and other risk assets have faltered. 

Late-stage bull market 

McGlone contends that the crypto's maturation and ETF inflows mark a late-stage bull market peak akin to dot-com excesses. He believes that the S&P 500 could record its third down year since 2008. The analyst has predicted possible trajectories toward 5,000 for the index alongside $50,000 Bitcoin in 2026. 

Strive, a Nasdaq-listed structured finance company that ranks among the world’s largest public bitcoin treasuries, has urged MSCI to reconsider a proposal that would bar bitcoin-heavy firms from major equity benchmarks.

In a letter sent this week to MSCI CEO Henry Fernandez, Strive said the exclusion would "depart from index neutrality" and asked the index provider to "let the market decide" how to treat companies whose bitcoin holdings make up a large share of their balance sheets.

Strive currently holds more than 7,500 BTC, placing it 14th among public corporate bitcoin holders, according to its disclosures. The firm said that its position gives it insight into how bitcoin-reserve companies operate and why a hard exclusion rule would be misguided.

The letter was penned in response to MSCI weighing whether to remove companies whose digital-asset holdings exceed 50% of total assets, a policy change that could affect Strategy, the largest public bitcoin holder with 650,000 BTC. JPMorgan estimated that the firm could face roughly $2.8 billion in passive outflows if MSCI drops it, with the total rising to $8.8 billion if other index providers follow.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said the potential impact is likely already reflected in Strategy’s share price and argued that nothing about MSCI’s decision would force the company to sell its bitcoin. MSCI is set to announce its decision on Jan. 15, 2026, ahead of the February index review.

Strive's own stock (ticker ASST) has been volatile since unveiling its bitcoin treasury strategy through a reverse merger earlier this year. Shares climbed from about $0.60 in May to more than $13 after the deal was announced, but have since fallen back below $1.

Neutrality vs. exclusion

Strive’s letter primarily focused on MSCI’s methodology.

The firm argued that the 50% threshold is "unjustified, overbroad and unworkable," noting that many large bitcoin-treasury companies operate real businesses in sectors such as AI data-center infrastructure and structured finance.

The category includes MARA, Riot, Hut 8, and CleanSpark — miners that are pivoting into renting excess power and compute to cloud and hyperscale clients as secondary revenue sources.

"Index providers do not exclude energy companies whose oil reserves dominate their balance sheets, or gold miners whose value depends largely on the metal they extract," the letter said. Creating a digital-asset-specific rule, it argued, would hard-code an investment judgment into benchmarks that are meant to be neutral.

Strive also warned that the proposal could create inconsistent outcomes across jurisdictions. Under U.S. GAAP, companies must mark digital assets to fair value each quarter, while issuers reporting under IFRS can hold them at cost. As a result, two companies with identical bitcoin exposure could be treated differently.

Instead of redefining eligibility for broad indices, Strive encouraged MSCI to offer optional "ex-digital-asset treasury" variants for clients that want to exclude the category.

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

© 2025 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.