Bitcoin Market Structure Echoes 2022 Bear Start, Glassnode Warns

Current market conditions will make it difficult for Bitcoin to replicate its early 2025 price gains going into 2026, says 21Shares co-founder Ophelia Snyder.

“It’s unlikely that the factors driving the current volatility will fully resolve in the short term,” Snyder told Cointelegraph.“A repeat performance next January will depend heavily on broader market sentiment.”

Snyder explained that January often sees “renewed inflows” into Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds as investors rebalance and reposition portfolios at the start of the year.

Downtrend isn’t “anything crypto specific”

Snyder said it is unclear how Bitcoin will perform in January, given the current low level of positive market sentiment.

Bitcoin reached a then-peak of $109,000 on Jan. 9, just one day before Donald Trump was set to be inaugurated, as traders bet his proposed plans for the crypto sector would spark a rally.

Friday is options expiry day, and there has been an increase in derivatives trading in recent weeks, with Binance futures volumes spiking as traders position themselves for a major shift in volatility.

Around 247,000 Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts are set to expire today. The tranche is less than a third of last week’s expiry event, which saw almost 720,000 contracts written off.

Over $4 Billion in Options Expiry Sparks Volatility Amid Mixed Sentiment

Data on Deribit shows that over $4.07 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options will expire today. For Bitcoin, the expiring options have a notional value of $3.4 billion and a total open interest of 36,906.

With a Put-to-Call ratio of 0.91, the maximum pain level for today’s expiring Bitcoin options is $91,000, slightly below the current BTC price of $92,279.

For their Ethereum counterparts, the notional value for today’s expiring ETH options is $668.95 million, with total open interest of 210,304.

Like Bitcoin, today’s expiring Ethereum options have a Put-to-Call Ratio below 1, with Deribit data showing a PCR of 0.78 as of this writing. Meanwhile, the maximum pain level, or strike price, is $3,050, slightly below the current ETH price of $3,180.

The maximum pain point is a crucial metric in crypto options trading. It represents the price level at which most options contracts expire worthless. This scenario inflicts the maximum financial loss, or “pain,” on traders holding these options. 

Notably, today’s expiring Bitcoin and Ethereum options are significantly lower than last week’s. On November 28, BeInCrypto reported that over $15 billion in expiring options was highlighted, featuring 145,482 BTC and 574,208 ETH contracts, with notional values of $13.28 billion and $1.73 billion, respectively.

A PCR below 1 indicates that more Call (Purchase) options are traded than Put (Sale) options. Therefore, this suggests a bullish market sentiment for Ethereum, and bearish sentiment for Bitcoin, which has more Puts than Calls.

With a PCR of 0.91, Bitcoin’s options market suggests an almost balanced sentiment, with a slight tilt toward hedging or defensive positioning. Traders are cautious but not aggressively bearish on BTC.

This balanced outlook comes as investors speculate whether the market will move higher or are hedging their portfolios in case of a sell-off.

Ethereum has a PCR of 0.78, suggesting more calls than puts, showing stronger bullish positioning.Traders are more optimistic about ETH compared to BTC at this moment.

Options Desks See Stealth Positioning Shift

Despite choppy spot prices, options data points to a quiet but meaningful rotation into mid-2026 maturities, particularly in Bitcoin.

Institutional desks are reportedly increasing call exposure tied to projected rate cuts, ETF demand, and improving liquidity conditions.

Open interest on derivatives platforms continues to rise, with fresh inflows signaling traders are preparing for a multi-quarter rebound. This aligns with observations from derivatives analytics firm Laevitas.

The data reflect a maturing derivatives market that is increasingly dominated by professional flows.

Analysts Track Bearish Skew—But Bullish Hints Emerge

Despite long-horizon optimism, analysts say near-term sentiment remains conflicted. In a December 2 update, Greeks.live described trader positioning as:

Greeks.live added that put skew remains elevated, indicating the market still prices in short-term downside:

However, volatility compression, especially in Bitcoin, has opened opportunities in ETH options, where traders see comparatively attractive volatility levels.

Capital Shifts Toward Yield and Preservation

Deribit echoed the broader pivot toward measured, sustainable strategies. As volatility steadily cools and more capital enters the space, traders are shifting from ‘5–10x flips’ toward capital preservation and sustainable yield.

Heading into today’s options expiry, traders should expect some volatility, which could influence short-term price action. However, markets could settle shortly after 8:00 UTC today when the contracts expire on Deribit as investors adjust to new trading environments

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a strong warning about the growing risks stablecoins may create for national currencies, especially in countries that already have weak financial systems. 

The IMF noted that 97% of stablecoins are tied to the US dollar and said governments should not allow digital assets to become legal tender.

Stablecoins Could Replace Weak Currencies

According to the recently released departmental paper, the IMF identifies stablecoins as a significant threat to central bank control, particularly in economies with weaker currencies. 

Since stablecoins are linked to strong currencies like the US dollar, people may slowly stop using their national money, which could hurt the country’s ability to control inflation or interest rates.

The concern is not new. In November, the European Central Bank also warned that dollar-based stablecoins could drain money from banks and reduce their financial stability.

Today, the stablecoin market is huge, worth about $316 billion in 2025. Most of it is controlled by USDT and USDC, which together hold over 90% of the market. Even euro- and yen-based stablecoins are growing, worth $675 million and $15 million, respectively.

Why Poorer Countries Are Most at Risk

Some countries with very high inflation are already turning to stablecoins to protect their money. For example,

• Argentina’s inflation went above 140% in 2023
• Turkey has inflation above 60%

Because of this, people are using stablecoins as a safer option, and transactions in these countries have increased by more than 300% in a year.

The IMF also explains that stablecoins are easy to access. Anyone with a smartphone can get them. Today, more than 420 million people around the world use crypto wallets, and stablecoins make up nearly 25% of all crypto transactions.

What the IMF Wants Countries to Do

The IMF says countries need stricter and clearer rules for stablecoins. Right now, only 45 countries have proper regulations, which leaves many gaps and increases risk.

To protect their own currencies, the IMF suggests two main steps. First, countries should strengthen their local currency by following strong economic policies. Second, they should set clear rules for stablecoins so these digital assets don’t end up being treated like official money.

The IMF also warns that digital assets should not become legal tender, because that would weaken a country’s ability to control its financial system.

According to analytics platform Santiment, XRP is behaving differently compared to Bitcoin in terms of fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD). 

Over the past two months, XRP has lost about 31% of its value, and social data shows that the current level of negative sentiment is the highest since October.

The silver lining 

On the chart Santiment provides, they use colored circles to show extreme sentiment days. Red circles appear when there are significantly more bullish comments than bearish ones, which they call the "greed zone." 

Green circles appear when bearish comments far outnumber bullish ones, called the "fear zone." 

The last time XRP experienced similar levels of fear on November 21st, its price quickly surged by 22% over the next three days before optimism returned and the rally stopped.

Santiment implies that the current conditions are somewhat similar to that previous scenario. This could potentially bode well for 

ETF hype has fizzled 

XRP has underperformed relative to expectations built on ETF hype. 

Despite multiple spot XRP ETFs launching since mid-November from issuers of the likes of Canary Capital, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, and 21Shares, the price has not managed to pull off a major breakout. Their launches were not even sell-the-news events because there were no preceding rallies. 

However, as reported by U.Today, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently rejected the idea that the ETF market is overhyped. He pointed to robust inflows that have already surpassed $700 million. This, according to Garlinghouse, shows that there is pent-up demand from institutional investors and those investors who want access to the token without having to deal with custody. 

Solana failed to stay above $144 and corrected gains. SOL price is now trading below $140 and might find bids near the $135 zone.

• SOL price started a downside correction below $140 against the US Dollar.
• The price is now trading above $135 and the 100-hourly simple moving average.
• There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $144 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
• The pair could extend losses if it dips below the $135 zone.

Solana Price Starts Downside Correction

Solana price failed to surpass $148 and started a downside correction, beating Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL dipped below $145 and $144 to enter a short-term bearish zone.

There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the $123 swing low to the $147 high. Besides, there was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $144 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair.

Solana is now trading above $135 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the $142 level. The next major resistance is near the $145 level. The main resistance could be $148. A successful close above the $148 resistance zone could set the pace for another steady increase. The next key resistance is $155. Any more gains might send the price toward the $165 level.

More Losses In SOL?

If SOL fails to rise above the $145 resistance, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $135 zone and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the $123 swing low to the $147 high. The first major support is near the $132 level.

A break below the $132 level might send the price toward the $128 support zone. If there is a close below the $128 support, the price could decline toward the $122 support in the near term.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for SOL/USD is gaining pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly Hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for SOL/USD is below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $135 and $132.

Major Resistance Levels – $142 and $148.

As institutional demand intensifies and the crypto market recovers, US spot XRP Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) continue to lead the sector with a 13-day streak and over $200 million in positive net flows this week, outshining Solana (SOL) ETFs, which recorded their third day of outflows in seven days.

XRP Funds Lead Crypto ETF Inflows

Spot XRP exchange-traded funds have extended their record-breaking streak after registering their thirteenth consecutive day of positive net flows, with $50.27 million in inflows on December 3.

The investment products have seen a remarkable performance since the launch of Canary Capital’s XRPC, the first single-token XRP spot ETF, on November 13, positioning the funds as the fastest-growing altcoin-based category.

Notably, XRPC surpassed all initial expectations and debuted on Nasdaq with a total volume of $58 million, recording around $357.54 million in positive net flows in 13 days. Last week, the second group of XRP funds went live, becoming the largest US ETF launches of 2025 with over $60 million in net inflows each during their first day.

Moreover, the category, led by Grayscale’s GXRP and Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ, surpassed other major ETFs in single-day inflows, including those based on the largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, Solana, Bitcoin (BTC), and Ether (ETH).

Amid this week’s market recovery, XRP ETFs saw $89.65 million on Monday, $67.7 million the following day, and an additional $50.27 million on Wednesday, for a cumulative net inflow of $207.66 million during the first three days of December.

As a result, the leading category surpassed both Bitcoin ETFs’ $52.4 million and Ethereum ETFs’ $51.3 million positive net flows, respectively, during the same three-day period.

With a total of $874.28 million in inflows in 13 days, spot XRP ETFs have surpassed the $618.62 million total inflows of SOL ETFs, which held the record among the second wave of altcoin-based investment products.

Solana ETFs Demand Loses Steam

While XRP ETFs take the spotlight, Solana funds’ momentum has slowed, seeing their largest days of outflows this week. According to SoSovalue data, the investment products recorded $32.9 million in outflows on December 3, marking their third negative net flows day since the category debuted on October 28.

Despite pulling out positive net flows, Bitwise’s BSOL, Fidelity’s FSOL, and Grayscale’s GSOL were unable to absorb 21Shares’ TSOL $41.8 million in outflows. This performance also marks the fourth negative day for TSOL over the past week.

As reported by NewsBTC, Solana ETFs experienced a record performance in November despite the market correction, with $613 million in inflows during their 22 consecutive day positive streak.

However, the remarkable streak ended a week ago when TSOL registered negative net flows for the first time, and the category was unable to absorb them, recording outflows of $8.1 million.

SOL-based investment products started December with outflows worth $13.5 million, which were followed by strong inflows worth $45.77 million on Tuesday. On December 3, the funds registered $32.19 million in outflows, amounting to a negative net flow of $700,000 for the first half of the week, despite the altcoin’s recent price recovery.