Bitcoin LTH Supply Rises Again Amid Bearish Market Dynamics

Bitcoin price fell below the $80,000 support level, hitting a nine-month low and wiping out $2.6 billion in trader positions.

According to BeInCrypto data, the 6% slide sent the token to $77,082 before a minor rebound. This marked the first time prices have sat this low since April 2025.

Bitcoin Sinks Below ‘Fair Value’ for First Time in Years

The price action pushed Bitcoin below critical on-chain benchmarks for the first time in years.

Glassnode data confirmed that Bitcoin fell below its True Market Mean—currently $80,500—for the first time in 30 months. The last breach occurred in late 2023, when the asset traded at just $29,000.

Historically, a breach of this level signals a transition from a bull cycle to a mid-term bear market.

As a result, BTC holders now face a grim reality as its Short-Term Holder Cost Basis has climbed to $95,400, while the Active Investor Mean stands at $87,300.

With the spot price significantly below these averages, the market now faces a substantial overhang of unrealized losses.

This technical breakdown triggered a violent deleveraging event across global derivatives exchanges.

Data from CoinGlass show that the collapse led to the liquidation of roughly $2.58 billion in trader positions.

Notably, the carnage hit one side of the market with extreme prejudice as “long” positions—bets on a price rebound—accounted for $2.42 billion of the total losses. This is the largest long liquidation event in the last three months.

Ethereum traders bore the heaviest burden, incurring $1.15 billion in liquidations, while Bitcoin-related wipes totaled more than $772 million.

This massive “long squeeze” shows that participants overleveraged their positions to defend the $80,000 floor, only to be crushed by accelerating downside momentum.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju tied this substantial decline to an exhaustion in BTC’s buyer liquidity. He attributed this to a “flatlined” Realized Cap, which confirms that the fresh capital required to sustain a bull market has simply vanished.

According to Ju, while early investors continue to take profits on holdings acquired during the 2025 surge, no new institutional “blood” exists to absorb the supply.

Considering this, he posited that the market would be forced into a “wide-ranging sideways consolidation” until a new floor emerges.

A UAE-backed investment vehicle quietly agreed to buy nearly half of World Liberty Financial, a cryptocurrency startup linked to President Donald Trump, just days before he returned to the White House, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal.

Aryam Investment 1, an Abu Dhabi entity backed by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, signed a deal in January 2025 to purchase a 49% stake in World Liberty Financial for $500 million, the Journal said, citing documents and people familiar with the matter.

Half of that amount was paid upfront, sending $187 million to Trump family-controlled entities, with additional tens of millions flowing to entities tied to co-founders, including relatives of US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, per the report.

The agreement was reportedly signed by Eric Trump. The Journal reported that the deal had not been publicly disclosed, despite World Liberty later revealing that the Trump family’s stake had fallen sharply.

Related: Sam Bankman-Fried turns up Trump support following Ellison’s release

Tahnoon’s ambitions grow after Trump election

Tahnoon, the brother of the United Arab Emirates president and the country’s national security adviser, has been central to Abu Dhabi’s push to become a global leader in artificial intelligence. Under the Biden administration, his efforts to secure advanced US-made AI chips were limited amid concerns that sensitive technology could reach China, particularly through companies such as G42.

Following Trump’s election, those efforts gained momentum. Tahnoon met multiple times with Trump and senior US officials, and within months the administration committed to granting the UAE access to hundreds of thousands of advanced AI chips annually.

A fresh whale on the XRP ledger moved a large chunk of tokens in a very short time, and traders are split on what it means.

According to on-chain records, a newly activated address received two equal transfers that together totaled $120 million XRP.

The transfers came through an intermediary wallet that shuffled the coins across multiple quick moves.

Whale Activity And The Flow Of Funds

Reports say the incoming batches were two transfers of $60 million XRP each. The intermediary took each batch and pushed them onward to a holding address within the hour.

That receiving account now shows a balance of $185 million XRP after adding a leftover $35 million it already held. Exchange tags are absent. No known custodial label appears next to these addresses. That makes the trail harder to read.

Why The Moves Could Be Routine

Large holders move funds for many reasons. Custodians tidy up wallets. Exchanges consolidate holdings. Firms rotate funds locked in cold storage for operational reasons.

Those are common explanations. Active traders watched the price around the same time. Reports note XRP had slid to the low $1.70 range, breaking below the $1.80 support and slipping about 10% since Jan. 29. Signals Traders Want To See

If this were a quiet buy-the-dip, market signs would usually show up. Price stabilization or an uptick might follow. Spot volume could climb. Net outflows from exchange wallets might be visible.

None of those clear, matching clues appeared right away. Instead, the funds sat put. That raises the chance this was internal reshuffling rather than aggressive accumulation.What The Intermediary Pattern Suggests

Routing through a central wallet is common. Some teams prefer to funnel receipts into a single address for accounting or security checks before dispersing them.

The pace of transfers can look dramatic on a block explorer. But drama does not equate to new money entering the market.

Without evidence that the source funds came from outside exchanges, or that they were purchased on the open market, the move should be treated as ambiguous.

Reports have disclosed similar on-chain activity in past months that later turned out to be either coordinated buying or routine housekeeping.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen and venture capitalist Tim Draper have launched Grow California, a $40 million political initiative designed to elect moderate state legislators and push back against labor unions, with a proposed wealth tax serving as the primary catalyst for Silicon Valley’s latest political mobilization.

According to , the effort, which began with $5 million checks from each founder in September, represents one of the most significant financial commitments from the tech and crypto sectors to reshape California politics.

The ballot measure that triggered this response, backed by Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West, would impose a one-time 5% tax on net worth exceeding $1 billion, including unrealized gains on assets not yet sold.

“Whoever designed that wealth tax in the unions — wow,” Larsen said. “They woke up the sleeping giant like I have never seen.“Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen. | Source: BloombergTech Billionaires Challenge Union Influence With Business-Friendly Candidates

Larsen, whose net worth is nearly $15 billion from Ripple holdings and crypto assets, said he expects to personally commit $30 million to the organization.

“If it takes a couple of cycles, fine — that’s what we’re here for,” he told The New York Times when asked about potential November losses.

The group plans to target about a dozen state legislative seats this year, focusing on public safety, homelessness, and budget discipline, according to Shaudi Fulp, the former Sacramento lobbyist leading daily operations.

While Democrats control more than two-thirds of seats in both legislative chambers, Grow California will not engage in the 2026 gubernatorial race or expensive ballot proposition campaigns.

Both founders come from the crypto industry, though they stress that the initiative does not represent the interests of the crypto sector specifically.

Larsen acknowledged learning lessons from Fairshake, the crypto super PAC backed by Ripple that spent over $100 million shaping the current Congress.

Draper, known for Bitcoin-themed accessories and his persistent campaign to split California into multiple states, did not respond to requests for comment.

“The government unions do a great job,” Larsen said, adding with a laugh, “I have respect for the job that they’ve done. They show up, and they’re there consistently. But that’s going to clash with a lot of the things that are going to make California successful if there’s no counterforce.“

🇺🇸 Crypto and tech leaders warn California’s proposed 5% billionaire tax on unrealized gains could trigger capital flight and an exodus of high-net-worth residents ahead of the 2026 ballot vote. — Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) California Crypto Politics Intensifies Amid Governor Race And Regulatory Expansion

The wealth tax debate coincides with former Assembly member Ian Calderon’s entry into the 2026 gubernatorial race on a pro-Bitcoin platform.

Calderon, 39, who served as Assembly Majority Leader from 2016 to 2020, declared his vision for California to become “the undisputed leader on Bitcoin” in his campaign announcement video.

Meanwhile, Governor Gavin Newsom has intensified criticism of President Donald Trump’s crypto-related pardons, launching a state-backed website tracking what his office calls “criminal cronies.“

The site prominently features Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, who received a full pardon in October after serving four months for Bank Secrecy Act violations, and Ross Ulbricht, whose life sentence for Silk Road operations was commuted.

🚨 California Governor Newsom slams Trump’s crypto pardons, calling 's CZ and Silk Road’s Ross Ulbricht “criminal cronies” in a new state tracker highlighting controversial pardons. — Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews)

Beyond political battles, California continues advancing digital asset infrastructure through the Digital Financial Assets Law, which takes effect in July 2025 and requires all crypto service providers to obtain state licenses.

The Assembly also unanimously passed AB 1180 in June, creating a pilot program for state fee payments using digital assets that runs through 2031.Global Tax Frameworks Contrast California’s Uncertain Trajectory

While California debates wealth taxation, other jurisdictions are implementing clearer crypto tax structures.

Japan’s 2026 tax reform blueprint reduces crypto taxation from up to 55% to a flat 20% for specified digital assets handled by registered businesses, though the exact qualifying criteria remain undefined.

Similarly, the European Union’s DAC8 tax transparency law took effect on January 1, requiring crypto exchanges and service providers to collect and report user information to national tax authorities, with data sharing between EU countries beginning July 1.

“Tax authorities now have an automated dashboard tracking your digital assets,” wrote Bitcoin educator Heidi Chakos.

🏛 DAC8 took effect on Jan. 1, giving the EU power to seize crypto linked to unpaid taxes, while negating privacy for individual holders. — Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews)

However, just like California, South Korea faces mounting uncertainty over its repeatedly delayed crypto tax regime, now scheduled for January 2027 despite lacking essential infrastructure.

Switzerland also postponed the automatic exchange of crypto account information with foreign tax authorities until at least 2027, though legal frameworks take effect in January 2026.

Step Finance, a major Solana DeFi platform, multiple treasury and fee wallets were compromised by a sophisticated attacker during Asian Pacific trading hours, resulting in the theft of approximately 261,854 SOL tokens worth roughly $30 million.

The breach sent shockwaves through the Solana ecosystem as blockchain security firm CertiK flagged that the stolen SOL “has been withdrawn after stake authorization had been transferred” to an unknown wallet address.

The incident triggered immediate market panic, with the platform’s native STEP token plummeting over 90% within 24 hours.Source: CoinGecko

While the team insists user funds remained unaffected, questions swirl over whether the breach represents a genuine security failure or a disguised exit scam, particularly given that the attacker appeared to have direct wallet access rather than exploiting smart contract vulnerabilities.

Earlier today several of our treasury wallets were compromised by a sophisticated actor during APAC hours. This was an attack facilitated through a well known attack vector. Immediate remediation steps have been taken, and we are working closely with top security professionals.…— Step☀️ (@StepFinance_) Emergency Response and Damage Control

Step Finance disclosed the security breach through a series of urgent social media posts, stating “several of our treasury and fee wallets were compromised by a sophisticated actor” and confirming the attack leveraged “a well known attack vector.“

The platform immediately activated emergency protocols and reached out to cybersecurity firms for assistance.

Solana media firm Solana Floor that on-chain data showed the stolen 261,854 SOL was “unstaked and moved during the incident,” suggesting the attacker had obtained authorization to control staking operations.

The team emphasized it had “notified the relevant authorities” and implemented immediate remediation steps while working with top security professionals around the clock.

We are contacting Cybersecurity firms to assist. Any firms who can assist feel free to slide into DMs— Step☀️ (@StepFinance_) Ripple Effects Across Linked Protocols

The breach extended beyond Step Finance’s own operations, impacting connected platforms including Remora Markets.

The protocol disclosed that as “majority LP, Step Finance experienced a hack of treasury wallets earlier today” with some affected assets including Remora rStocks.

Remora users that despite the incident, “Remora assets remain held 1:1 in our brokerage account” while constructing a process for handling redemptions.

The market’s swift verdict on Step Finance came through brutal price action, with the STEP token losing most of its value as traders fled amid uncertainty about the platform’s future viability and the legitimacy of the breach.

Remora Markets majority LP, Step Finance experienced a hack of treasury wallets earlier today. Some of the assets involved in the incident are Remora rStocks. An investigation is currently underway. Remora assets remain held 1:1 in our brokerage account. A process for handling…— Remora Markets (@RemoraMarkets) January’s Relentless Wave of DeFi Exploits

The Step Finance hack marks the latest in what security firms describe as a devastating month for cryptocurrency security.

According to CertiK’s comprehensive January 2026 , “combining all the incidents in January, we’ve confirmed ~$370.3M lost to exploits” across multiple attack vectors.

Major January incidents included Truebit’s $26.6 million smart contract exploit, SwapNet’s $13.3 million breach affecting Matcha Meta users, Saga’s $6.2 million exploit that forced the Layer-1 protocol to pause its SagaEVM chain, and through flash loan manipulation.

CertiK’s analysis revealed that phishing incidents accounted for $311.3 million of January’s losses, while code vulnerability attacks totaled $51.5 million.

🚨Combining all the incidents in January we’ve confirmed ~$370.3M lost to exploits.~$311.3M of the total is attributed to phishing with one victim losing ~$284M due to a social engineering scam.More details below 👇 — CertiK Alert (@CertiKAlert)

Notably, the Step Finance breach continues a troubling pattern affecting Solana-based protocols.

Swiss crypto platform SwissBorg lost $41.5 million worth of SOL tokens in September 2025 after hackers compromised partner API provider Kiln, while South Korea’s Upbit exchange suffered a $36 million Solana exploit in November 2025, exactly six years after its 2019 hack attributed to North Korean actors.

Beyond individual protocol failures, January also witnessed the largest single crypto theft of 2026, when a victim lost over $282 million in Bitcoin and Litecoin through a hardware wallet social engineering scam, as blockchain investigator ZachXBT described it, surpassing the previous record of $243 million set in August 2024.

The attacker “immediately began converting the stolen assets into Monero through multiple instant exchanges,” obscuring the trail across multiple blockchain networks.

CertiK’s data shows that despite these massive losses, less than 2-5% has been recovered so far, as investigations into many cases have only recently begun.

Even government-held crypto assets came under scrutiny, as the US Marshals Service it is investigating a possible hack of federal digital-asset accounts.

Patrick Witt, executive director of the President’s Council of Advisors for Digital Assets, acknowledged that the government seizure addresses were among the wallets from which hackers stole more than $60 million in late 2025.

In the past few hours, Bitcoin has dropped below $80,000 amid another wave of liquidations as January comes to a rather volatile close. Analysts at Kobeissi note there have been three notable liquidation events in the past 12 hours, resulting in a combined loss of $1.3 billion.

Such developments, coupled with a very fearful market after last week’s price slump, have pushed Bitcoin below a key price level. According to the renowned market expert Burak Kesmeci, Bitcoin’s behavior towards this $80,000 price zone holds significant consequences for the market trajectory.

Bitcoin Slips Under ETF Realized Price As Downside Risk Grows

In a recent X post, Burak Kesmeci outlines the technical and on-chain importance of the $80,000 price level to the Bitcoin market. Before Bitcoin’s recent breakdown below $80,000, the asset had twice retested this zone following the correction phase that began in early October 2025.

Each successful rebound from these retests reinforced $80,000 as a critical support level, with certain chart formations even hinting at potential trend reversal. This underscored the market’s technical sensitivity to this level before the recent loss. However, Kesmeci highlights an on-chain importance of the $80,000 price point in that it also functions as the cost basis of the Bitcoin Spot ETFs. Therefore, the recent price fall below $80,000 places a large cohort of institutional investors at risk of entering unrealized losses.

In January 2026 alone, the Bitcoin ETFs already witnessed massive levels of withdrawals, resulting in a total net outflow of $1.61 billion. However, these figures are likely to surge higher as sustained price decline below the ETF cost basis is expected to trigger a wide-scale, panic-driven redemption among investors. In addition to its on-chain and technical importance, Kesmeci also notes that $80,000 presently functions as the True Market Mean.

What Next For Bitcoin? 

According to Burak Kesmeci, a bearish scenario would require a weekly close below the $80,000 support level. If confirmed, the analyst warns that bearish momentum could intensify, potentially driving Bitcoin lower toward $72,000, $68,000, and eventually $62,000 in sequence. This is because these levels align with notable volume profile clusters, representing potential areas where liquidity could accumulate, and the price may temporarily stabilize.

Conversely, in a bullish scenario, Kesmeci notes that a sustained rebound from current levels could shift momentum back in favor of the bulls. The first major upside hurdle lies at $90,000, followed by the 111-period Simple Moving Average (SMA111) near $95,000, which is described as a critical level for confirming a medium-term trend reversal.

A decisive break above the psychological $100,000 resistance would further strengthen the bullish case and signal a potential resumption of the broader uptrend. At press time, Bitcoin trades at $77,832, reflecting a 7.1% loss in the past day.