Bitcoin fills new year CME gap with sub-$88K BTC price dip

By Steve Goldstein

What ribeye steak says about the global financial system.

Forget the consumer price index - this bitcoin evangelist is tracking ribeye steak prices for what he thinks is a better measure of inflation.

Parker Lewis, the author of "Gradually, Then Suddenly," talked about his habit on the "We Study Billionaires" podcast, in which he's been tracking the price of the same ribeye at the same store since 2020 over the last five years. Lewis said inflation using his ribeye method shows 72.5% cumulative inflation, or 19% annualized.

"One, it's a great way to distill everything that's happening in the world, because the ribeye doesn't lie," said Lewis. "It's still desirable, right? It's scarce and desirable. So it requires work to produce, and like there's food, energy, money, as kind of three key working systems that are very foundational to our economic system."

"You need to look at the things in your life that you consume, and measure inflation based on those things, because if the [Labor Department] is saying that CPI is 2 7%, but you're going to CVS and Walgreens, and things are rising at far higher rates, or if you're getting on planes to go visit family, or a flight use to cost $300 and now cost $600, that inflation is really the goods and services that you consume, and if your rate of inflation is not keeping pace with your wages, the net consequence to that is your standard of living has declined" said Lewis.

It should be noted the Bureau of Labor Statistics does actually keep track of steak prices. The numbers aren't wildly off from Lewis's one-store measure - before the pandemic, at the outset of 2020, a pound of steak was $7.64, and now it's $12.51, on the BLS numbers.

In bitcoin terms, however, ribeye steaks are actually getting cheaper.

Lewis, who advocated for Texas's move to create a fledgling bitcoin reserve, says the larger the cryptocurrency becomes, the harder it becomes to undermine.

"There's great downside if you were to be wrong, that even if you're discounting it and saying there's a 1 % probability [of bitcoin becoming the main economic system], you still have to be exposed to it," he said.

It should be noted that while bitcoin's price has skyrocketed, it doesn't tend to trade as a inflation hedge but rather moves with other risky assets like stocks.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on Wednesday was trading at just over $89,000, down 29% from its late October peak.

-Steve Goldstein

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The United States Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) Crypto Task Force “Written Input” page added two new submissions on Jan. 20 that focus on self‑custody rights and how proprietary trading in tokenized and decentralized finance (DeFi) markets should be regulated. 

One submission comes from “DK Willard,” centered on Louisiana retail users, and the other from the Blockchain Association Trading Firm Working Group on dealer rules for tokenized equity markets.

Submissions target self-custody protections, DeFi

The Louisiana submission cites state law HB 488, which affirms residents’ right to self-custody digital assets, and argues that upcoming federal crypto market structure legislation should preserve strong registration, transparency, and anti‑fraud and anti‑manipulation requirements. 

It warns that exemptions in some federal proposals could allow developers and platforms to avoid core investor protection obligations, increasing the risk of fraud and financial crime for consumers.

The Blockchain Association letter asks the SEC to clarify that firms trading tokenized equities and DeFi assets only for their own account, without customer solicitation, custody, or agency execution, should not automatically be treated as “dealers” required to register under the Exchange Act.

Ethereum price slipped nearly 6% over the past 24 hours and almost 13% in two days, extending a choppy January pullback. Price briefly dipped below key levels, raising fresh doubts about whether buyers can regain control.

Yet beneath the surface, large holders stepped in aggressively. Roughly $360 million worth of ETH was accumulated by whales near the dip. The rebound case looks tempting, but Smart money (informed traders) is not fully convinced yet.

Triangle Pattern And Bullish Divergence Face Off Against Heavy Supply Cluster

Ethereum is trading inside a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart. Sellers rejected the price near the upper trendline earlier, around January 14. Now price is testing the lower boundary. But can buyers save the breakdown now?

Momentum throws an important hint. Between November 4 and January 20, Ethereum printed a lower low while RSI formed a higher low. RSI measures momentum by comparing recent gains and losses. This bullish divergence suggests selling pressure is weakening, even as the price tests support.

This kind of signal mattered before. In early January, a bearish RSI divergence preceded the recent drop. Now the opposite setup is forming, hinting at a potential reversal rather than continuation.

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The possible bounce, however, faces a clear obstacle. Cost basis data shows a dense supply cluster between roughly $3,146 and $3,164. About 3.44 million ETH was accumulated in this zone.

Many holders are near breakeven. That often turns the area into strong resistance. Any rebound must clear this cluster to prove strength and turn into a reversal, as the RSI hints.

Whales Buy the Dip, but Smart Money Waits

Whales are acting with conviction. As Ethereum fell from around 13% (between January 19 and January 21), whale holdings rose from roughly 103.42 million ETH to about 103.71 million ETH. That increase represents close to $360 million in accumulation near current prices. This is not new behavior.

Similar whale buying appeared around January 14, shortly before a sharp bounce. Plus, the Ethereum whales started picking up supply again over the past few hours.

This steady accumulation signals confidence that the downside is limited near current levels. Whales are willing to absorb supply during weakness.

Smart money tells a different story.

The smart money index, which tracks informed positioning, remains below its signal line. Smart money typically moves early and aggressively before sustained rallies. In December, when this indicator surged above the signal line, Ethereum rallied about 26% in ten days. A similar move at the end of December preceded a 16% advance into mid-January.

That kind of confirmation is missing now. Smart money appears to be waiting for proof that resistance is cleared. The heavy cost basis cluster above the ETH price likely explains the hesitation. Until supply is absorbed, patience makes sense.

Ethereum Price Levels Reveal The Key Zone

Everything now funnels into a narrow range of levels.

The first level to reclaim is $3,050. Ethereum lost this multi-touchpoint support during the latest selloff. A daily close back above it would signal initial stabilization.

Above that, all eyes turn to the $3,160 area. This level has multiple touchpoints and aligns with the cost basis supply cluster. A clean daily close above it would represent roughly a 6% move from current prices. More importantly, it would break heavy resistance and could invite smart money back in. Post that, the reversal setup can take form.

If that happens, momentum could accelerate quickly. A confirmed breakout opens the path toward $3,390, where a broader bullish reversal would take shape.

On the downside, losing the lower triangle support near $2,910 weakens the rebound thesis. A sustained break there exposes $2,610 as the next major support.

Ethereum’s sellers may have won the recent battle, but the war is still on. Whales are already positioning for a bounce. Smart money is waiting for proof. If Ethereum can clear the $3,160 supply wall, hesitation may turn into momentum fast.

Grayscale Investments has moved to convert its existing Near-linked closed-end trust into an exchange-traded fund, filing a Form S-1 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday.

The Grayscale Near Trust, a Delaware statutory trust formed in November 2021, was established to hold NEAR, the native cryptocurrency of the Near Network, and to offer investors exposure to the asset through publicly quoted shares rather than direct ownership. Upon effectiveness of the registration statement, the firm intends to rename the vehicle the Grayscale Near Trust ETF and uplist it from over-the-counter trading to NYSE Arca.

According to Grayscale’s website, the trust currently has approximately $900,000 in assets under management. The page also notes that the product “has not met its investment objective” and that its shares, quoted on OTC Markets, have traded at both premiums and discounts to net asset value, “with variations that have at times been substantial.”

The prospectus also addresses staking, a feature that has drawn scrutiny in recent crypto ETF filings. The trust agreement permits staking only if specific conditions are met. As of the filing date, those conditions have not been satisfied, and the trust is prohibited from staking its NEAR holdings.

If enabled in the future, the trust proposes a “Provider-Facilitated Staking” model where a third-party validator would be used, with the trust retaining ownership of the tokens and receiving staking rewards solely in NEAR, Grayscale said in the filing.

A growing list of crypto ETF hopefuls

The filing represents the second active application for a spot NEAR ETF in the U.S. It follows a similar S-1 registration statement submitted by asset manager Bitwise in May 2025 for a product designed to give investors exposure to NEAR through a traditional brokerage account.

This push for a NEAR-specific product is part of a broader wave of crypto ETF applications that has accelerated amid a perceived pro-crypto regulatory environment under President Trump. Issuer interest has rapidly expanded beyond the established Bitcoin and Ethereum funds to include a wider array of single-asset and multi-asset products.

 In December 2025 alone, Bitwise filed applications for 11 new "strategy" ETFs, according to regulatory filings. Those proposed funds seek to track Aave, Canton, Ethena, Hyperliquid, NEAR, Starknet, Sui, Bittensor, Tron, Uniswap, and Zcash.

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The crypto market shed $150 billion in capitalization as Bitcoin plunged below $88,000 amid a brutal leverage unwind, while gold surged past $4,800 per ounce for the first time in history.

The sharp divergence came as President Donald Trump’s escalating tariff threats against European allies over Greenland triggered a broad flight from US risk assets, with geopolitical tensions reaching their highest point since the Liberation Day tariff announcements of April 2025.

Bitcoin tumbled 9% in 48 hours to $87,000, wiping out $360 million in leveraged long positions in a single hour late Monday.Source: TradingView

The selloff intensified pressure on an already fragile market structure, with short-term holders (those who purchased Bitcoin within the past 155 days) now underwater for eight consecutive weeks, requiring a recovery above $98,000 to return to profitability, according to Glassnode data.Market Sentiment Hits Multi-Year Lows

CoinGlass liquidation data revealed 181,570 traders were wiped out over 24 hours, with $998.33 million in long positions liquidated versus just $71.39 million in shorts.

Bitcoin accounted for $440.19 million in forced selling, while Ethereum accounted for $392.38 million in liquidations, as the cascade accelerated during thin Asian trading hours.

Rex from R89Capital the despair gripping crypto natives, stating, “sentiment has bottomed out for sure. No one gives a single fuck about crypto. Die hard crypto natives who’ve shown up daily for years are trading stock shitters and commodities.”

He added that “it literally can’t get any worse for sentiment than right now,” noting that even during the COVID crash bottom, people still believed in the industry.

Sentiment has bottomed out for sure. No one gives a single fuck about crypto. Die hard crypto natives who've shown up daily for years are trading stock shitters and commodities. No one wants to make angel investments in this space, no one believes any of the bullshit narratives..…— Rex (@R89Capital)

Another analyst, TheGreekGod11, this frustration, observing that the industry executed “an excellent job at making crypto look like absolute dogshit” by voting in the first pro-crypto president, only to crash the market.

Mike Novogratz also that “the gold price is telling us we are losing reserve currency status at an accelerating rate,” adding that “$BTC is disappointing as it is still being met with selling.”

He reiterated that Bitcoin “has to take out 100-103k to regain its upward trend,” though he believes it will happen in time.

Joe Consorti a contrarian take, stating, “Bitcoin plummeting on geopolitical escalation, rather than ripping with gold and silver, tells you how early we are. The largest informational asymmetry in markets is still alive and well.“

Bitcoin plummeting on geopolitical escalation, rather than ripping with gold and silver, tells you how early we are.The largest informational asymmetry in markets is still alive and well.Mispricing like this is where generational wealth is acquired. — Joe Consorti (@JoeConsorti) Gold Rally Signals Deeper Structural Shifts

Gold extended its historic rally to $4,874.21, marking a 2.3% gain and continuing a three-session surge that has now pushed the precious metal within reach of $4,900.

According to , Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG in Sydney, stated that investors’ shedding of dollar-denominated assets reflects “a loss of confidence in the US administration and rising strains in international alliances following Trump’s latest threats.“

Daniel Ghali, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, also told that the surge is spurring “fear of market-led debasement in the rest of the world,” adding that “gold’s rally is about trust. For now, trust has bent, but hasn’t broken. If it breaks, momentum will persist for longer.”

Goldman Sachs co-head of commodities research Daan Struyven also declared, “Gold remains our highest conviction,” reiterating the bank’s base case scenario of gold rising to $4,900 per ounce, with risks to the upside.

In fact, Benjamin Cowen bluntly that “metals outperformed crypto in 2025 and will likely do so again in 2026,” warning that when metals eventually correct, “crypto will likely drop more.“

Metals outperformed crypto in 2025 and will likely do so again in 2026.Metals will likely have a big correction later this year, but when they do, crypto will likely drop more.Trade the market you have, not the market you want.— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) Institutional Positions Show Mounting Stress

Traditional equity markets suffered parallel damage, with the S&P 500 falling 2.06% and the Nasdaq Composite dropping 2.4% on Tuesday after markets reopened following Monday’s holiday.

Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings came under scrutiny, with analyst Maartunn that “40% of Strategy’s Bitcoin supply is currently sitting at a loss,” adding that “pressure’s building.”

40% of Strategy’s Bitcoin supply is currently sitting at a loss 🔻Pressure’s building. — Maartunn (@JA_Maartun)

Analyst CrediBULL Crypto cautious optimism, pointing out that “for the first time in 7 months, LTH (long term holders) have shifted from being net sellers to net buyers,” suggesting the reversal may be just around the corner.

However, analyst Ted Pillows that “$BTC must hold above the $89,000 level. Losing this zone will end the short-term uptrend.“

must hold above the $89,000 level.Losing this zone will end the short-term uptrend. — Ted (@TedPillows) Geopolitical Tensions Drive Safe Haven Rotation

Trump reiterated Tuesday there would be “no retreat” from his goal of controlling Greenland, threatening 10% tariffs on eight European nations beginning February unless they withdraw objections to US annexation.

French President Emmanuel Macron directly rebuked Trump’s tactics at Davos, while the EU prepared emergency countermeasures, including retaliatory tariffs worth €93 billion on US imports.

For now, no known agreement has been reached, as fear remains heightened in the market.

Bitcoin’s collapse alongside traditional risk assets, rather than rallying with gold, exposed the asset’s continued treatment as a speculative asset rather than a proven safe haven during geopolitical crises.

While the broader crypto market remains fragile and short-term momentum across altcoins fades, Chainlink is quietly flashing a different signal under the surface. Chainlink price has slipped back into a major demand zone near the $12 region. At first look, the price action looks bearish, but on-chain data suggests something more calculated is unfolding.

As speculative flows slow down, large holders appear to be positioning early, treating the current range as a high-conviction accumulation zone rather than a breakdown risk. 

Chainlink Price Returns to Demand Zone: Major Reversal Rally Ahead?

Chainlink’s price chart shows a clear downtrend over the past few weeks. It has traded within a descending channel and continued to form lower low swings. Currently, LINK price trades around the $12 demand zone. This latest retracement follows a failed attempt to sustain upside above the $14 level, which triggered short-term profit-taking amid broader market selling pressure.