Bitcoin Eyes Sub-$100K Liquidity — Watch These BTC Price Levels Next

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin reaches a key battleground at $104,000, but bulls are starting to struggle with upside momentum as new all-time highs suddenly come within reach.

Key points:

Bitcoin is at its highest levels since January, and traders are eyeing key levels to watch for what’s next.

After hitting $104,000, BTC/USD is retracing to establish support, but the fate of $100,000 is among the concerns for market participants.

Current price action represents an important battleground, as measured from the $75,000 lows this year.

” Headline driven” BTC price gains draw scrutiny

Just $6,000 from new all-time highs, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, BTC price action has stunned the market by jumping 10% in days.

The pace of the BTC price gains has come as a surprise for many, but longer-term perspectives show where the most difficult battleground lies.

“Since this current impulse was primarily headline driven again this puts markets into a crucial & critical trading day,” trader Skew said about the impetus for the move in an X post on May 8.

Skew refers to a common theme uniting BTC price volatility in recent weeks and months. Bitcoin and risk assets have become highly sensitive to headlines and even social media posts involving US President Donald Trump and his trade tariffs.

The latest event involves a trade deal between the US and UK, but how long optimism endures remains an open bet.

“I’m sure markets are hoping this has a kick on effect to get trade deals on the table for other major trade parties like EU & China,” Skew continued.

Another X post said what is needed now are “passive flows,” strong volume to support newly revisited levels and turn them into strong support.

Skew added:

“Passive flows will be important for accepting higher value especially after such a large market bid which led price to break $100K.”

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Fibonacci levels spotlight crucial bull market battle

Current local highs for BTC/USD have breached the $104,000 mark, and zooming out, Fibonacci retracement analysis reveals that price is now in a key zone.

“$BTC is at the last technical level to clear before new ATHs,” commentator Patric H. announced in an X post.

“Bitcoin has already decisively cleared the 1.618 FIB and is now trading at the volume-area high (VAH) + a weak resistance trendline.”

BTC/USDT 1-day chart with Fibonacci levels. Source: Patric H./X

An accompanying chart offered important Fibonacci levels as measured from Bitcoin’s local lows around $75,000.

Another trading account, Kingpin Crypto, revealed a conspicuous breakout attempt for the 1.618 Fibonacci level on the monthly chart.

“Rejection and pullback from 1.618 lasted a bit longer till May. However, can’t deny how beautifully the fib level played out,” it said.

Bitcoin Eyes Sub-$100K Liquidity — Watch These BTC Price Levels Next_3

BTC/USDT 1-month chart with Fibonacci levels. Source: Kingpin Crypto/X

Liquidations waiting in the wings

A cautionary note involved order book liquidity at current levels.

The latest data from monitoring resource CoinGlass showed price eating away at bids immediately below $103,000, with the bulk of interest clustered below $100,000.

To the upside, however, little friction remained, with the bulk of liquidations having already occurred on the return to six figures.

Bitcoin Eyes Sub-$100K Liquidity — Watch These BTC Price Levels Next_4

Bitcoin liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

“There’s much less short liquidity clustered above,” trader TheKingfisher confirmed on X.

“This notable imbalance makes the downside liquidation zone a potential key area to watch for volatility or price attraction.”

Bitcoin exchange order book liquidity data. Source: TheKingfisher/X

Source: Cointelegraph

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Adam

Stocks

U.S. stock index futures were subdued on Friday after a rally in the previous session, when a new trade agreement between the United States and Britain had fueled expectations of more such deals to ease the sting of the global trade war.

Investors are also awaiting meetings between U.S. and China representatives over the weekend in Switzerland.

Wall Street closed higher on Thursday after Britain and the U.S. struck the deal - the first of its kind since President Donald Trump paused his initial tariffs last month.

Under the new agreement, Britain will lower its tariffs on U.S. goods and provide greater import access, while the U.S.-imposed 10% baselines tariffs will remain in place.

However, the limited nature of the agreement brought up questions about its actual impact and potential to be used as a template for deals with other countries.

"Yesterday's price action suggests that investors are eager for good news and react positively — even if the news isn't that great... it's all in how it's delivered," said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.

Meanwhile, Reuters reported India had offered to slash its tariff gap with the U.S. to less than 4% from nearly 13% now, in exchange for an exemption from Trump's tariffs, according to sources.

The Switzerland meetings between U.S. and China representatives will also grab focus, after Trump said he expected substantial negotiations and that China tariffs would come down from 145%.

"In the best-case scenario, talks go well, both countries commit to finding a reasonable deal, markets rally on Monday. Or… the talks break down, Trump says something he shouldn’t, and we wake up to another hectic week," said Ozkardeskaya.

A tit-for-tat tariff policy between the world's two biggest economies has raised concerns over the hit to global economic growth, leaving markets, companies and the U.S. Federal Reserve in wait-and-watch mode.

Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday the economy was in good shape, but acknowledged the heightened risks of inflation and unemployment and that it was unclear what the appropriate monetary policy response was at the moment.

At 05:36 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 48 points, or 0.12%, S&P 500 E-minis were up 3.5 points, or 0.06%, and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 36.25 points, or 0.18%.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are set for marginal declines this week.

In a light day for earnings, Trade Desk shares jumped 14% in premarket trading after the ad firm posted first-quarter revenue and profit above Wall Street estimates.

Pinterest climbed 13.4%, a day after it forecast current-quarter revenue above estimates.

Expedia slipped 9.4% after the online travel platform missed quarterly revenue estimates.

A host of Fed officials including presidents John Williams, Austan Goolsbee and Thomas Barkin are scheduled to speak through the day, in the first appearances after the latest Fed decision.

Source: finance.yahoo

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Adam

Commodity

China–U.S. Trade War

Oil extended gains as the market turned its attention to trade talks between the US and China this weekend, after President Donald Trump announced an agreement with the UK.

Brent climbed toward $64 a barrel, following a 2.8% gain in the previous session. The Trump administration is weighing a dramatic reduction of tariffs on China to de-escalate tensions and temper the economic pain both countries are already starting to feel.

Crude has tumbled from a mid-January peak on concerns tariffs will dent economic growth, while OPEC+ moved to revive idled production. Measured optimism on trade negotiations has helped prices recover some ground after starting the week near their lowest since 2021.

“There is renewed trade optimism across financial markets, including oil, following yesterday’s signing of the first UK–US trade agreement,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management. “There is strong support for oil prices in the $60–$64 range.”

Still, while the US president hailed the pact with the UK as historic, specifics of the deal indicated it fell short of the “full and comprehensive” agreement he had promised. And even though Trump said negotiations with China would result in tangible progress, Beijing reiterated on Thursday its call for the US to cancel tariffs ahead of talks.

The US, meanwhile, sanctioned a third so-called teapot refinery in China — along with port terminal operators, vessels and individuals — for allegedly facilitating the trade of Iranian crude. Hebei Xinhai Chemical Group was the main target of the action.

The UK also plans to sanction as many as 100 tankers that it says are part of the shadow fleet helping Russia move its oil. The measures, which target ships carrying more than $24 billion worth of cargo since the start of last year, will be announced later Friday.

Source: finance.yahoo

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Blue River

Technical Analysis

The dollar index edged lower from one month high on Friday, but remains constructive, as the latest bullish acceleration broke and establishes above psychological 100 level, which repeatedly capped attacks in past three weeks.

The dollar is also on track for the third consecutive weekly gain that contributes to signals of possible stronger recovery.

Profit-taking from sharp fall in past three months lifted the dollar’s price, with brightening outlook after the US reached trade deals with a number of large economies and signals of talks with China, adding to supportive factors, along with the latest remarks from US policymakers that persisting uncertainty would continue to offset expectations for rate cuts in coming months.

The recovery is supported by formation of bear trap pattern (under 98.92 Fibo support) on weekly chart, with improving technical picture on daily chart (strengthening positive momentum / 10/20 DMA turned to bullish setup and formed a bull-cross) although more work at the upside will be required to verify positive signals.

Weekly close above 100 level (psychological / near Fibo 38.2% of 104.30/97.65 bear-leg) will be the minimum requirement to keep alive optimisms for further recovery, with lift above 100.97 (50% retracement) to validate bullish signal.

Res: 100.69; 100.97; 101.76; 102.00.
Sup: 100.19; 100.00; 99.22; 98.85.

Source: ACTIONFOREX

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Warren Takunda

Stocks

London stocks were still in the black by midday on Friday as optimism over US trade deals boosted sentiment.

The FTSE 100 was 0.5% firmer at 8,571.72.

After the UK and US struck a trade deal on Thursday, investors were looking ahead to talks between the US and China, due to take place over the weekend in Switzerland.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said: "With the UK having basked in trade deal glory yesterday, the spotlight has now turned to China.

"China is America’s biggest rival in the trade war and any sign of a compromise in their tit-for-tat tariff spat could be taken positively by markets. It would help to settle nerves and dial down uncertainty in the markets, something that could easily put investors back in risk-on mode.

"US-China trade talks are scheduled for this weekend and they could be make or break for the Chinese economy. New data shows that China’s exports went bananas in April as overseas manufacturers raced to stockpile materials from the Asian superpower for fear of tariffs getting out of control.

"Failure to convince Trump to ease back on tariffs would mean China has to lean even harder on domestic consumption to prop up its lofty economic growth goals, and that’s already proved to be a challenge even before Trump returned to the White House.

"Yesterday’s UK-US trade deal happened just before the UK market closed which meant quite a few investors won’t have had time to soak it all in and adjust portfolios accordingly. The FTSE 100 shrugged off the event in the heat of the moment, but advanced 0.4% in early trading on Friday as investors belatedly celebrated the agreement.

"Notably, the FTSE 100 top risers’ list was full of UK-listed stocks that do business in the US, such as retailer JD Sports, rat catcher Rentokil and industrial groups Smiths and Spirax.

"The trade deal was smaller than expected but strategically significant as it puts the UK in the friend zone for the US, a status whose importance shouldn’t be underestimated."

In equity markets, shares in BP sparked after it was reported that a range of possible suitors were running a slide rule over the oil and gas major.

According to the Financial Times, Shell, Chevron, ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies and Abu Dhabi’s Adnoc have run the numbers on a potential acquisition. Oil trader Vitol, meanwhile, is also thought to be potentially interested in parts of the business.

British Airways owner IAG rose as it held annual guidance after a surge in first-quarter operating profits, adding that second quarter revenue was ahead of last year. Operating profit before exceptional items increased by €130m to €198m as strong revenue growth and a lower fuel price offset expected cost increases, IAG said.

Rightmove reversed earlier gains as it reiterated its full-year 2025 guidance, expecting 8% to 10% revenue growth and a 70% underlying operating profit margin, supported by continued ARPA growth and rising membership across its Core business.

Travis Perkins rallied after the builders’ merchant said it has appointed Gavin Slark - the current chief executive of construction group SIG - as its new CEO with effect no later than 1 January 2026. SIG shares tumbled.

Urban Logistics REIT advanced after agreeing to be bought by LondonMetric in a £698.9m deal.

Source: Sharecast

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Adam

Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

U.S. stock futures were subdued ahead of the final day of the trading week, with markets gauging the potential for a series of new U.S. trade deals. Sentiment was buoyed on Thursday by a new trade agreement between the U.S. and U.K., with the spotlight now shifting to upcoming talks between American and Chinese officials this weekend. Elsewhere, artificial intelligence-darling Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is reportedly planning to downgrade its China-focused chip in a bid to meet stringent U.S. export controls.

Futures muted

U.S. stock futures hovered around both sides of the flatline on Friday, as investors assessed the implications of a recently-announced trade agreement between the U.S. and Britain.

By 03:38 ET (07:38 GMT), the Dow futures contract had dipped by 41 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 futures had inched up by 3 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had gained 38 points, or 0.2%.

The main averages on Wall Street gained on Thursday, fueled by optimism that the new U.S. deal with the UK could help thaw global trade tensions.

While a baseline 10% U.S. tariff on imported British items will remain in place, the UK has said it will lower its duties to 1.8% from 5.1% and grant greater access to U.S. goods.

Plane parts made by engine manufacturer Rolls-Royce (LON:RR) (OTC:RYCEY) were also exempted from U.S. levies, bolstering airline stocks like Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL), which spiked by 7.2%. The sector-wide S&P 500 passenger airlines index climbed by 5.4%.

Boeing (NYSE:BA) shares advanced as well after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the UK had agreed to purchase $10 billion of aircraft from the jetmaker.

The U.S. dollar strengthened following the announcement, with analysts at ING saying the greenback was benefiting from "Trump shifting to market-appeasing mode" after his punishing -- and now partially delayed -- tariffs rocked investor confidence last month.

U.S.-U.K. trade agreement

Although it came with heightened fanfare from Trump, analysts noted that Thursday’s announcement was relatively light on substance, providing more of an outline that a detailed trade deal.

Still, hopes remain that the accord may be the first of many to come during the ongoing 90-day pause to Trump’s elevated "reciprocal" tariffs.

Speaking in the Oval Office with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer listening in on a speaker phone, Trump said Britain had notched a "good deal", adding that other trading partners may end up with higher tariffs because they have larger trade surpluses with the U.S.

"[T]his rush to demonstrate progress on ’deals’ reveals a rising desperation within the administration to rollback tariffs before they hit gross domestic product growth and inflation," said Paul Ashworth, Chief North America Economist at Capital Economics, in a note. "That is still good news, however."

Trump previously slapped sweeping tariffs of up to 50% on goods from dozens of countries at a White House event in early April, arguing that the moves were necessary to bolster government revenues, reshore lost manufacturing jobs, and correct perceived trade imbalances. Despite postponing them a few days later, several tariffs are still in place, including the universal 10% levies and duties on other products like steel, aluminum and auto parts.

Many economists have warned that the tariffs could cause a "demand shock" in the world economy that eats away at global activity. Gross domestic product in the U.S. contracted in the first quarter, but there have been signs of resilience in consumer spending and the labor market.

U.S.-China trade talks ahead

Markets are now turning their focus to crucial talks this weekend between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and top trade negotiator Jamieson Greer and their Chinese counterparts in Switzerland.

Crucially, China was omitted from Trump’s tariff pause and now faces U.S. duties of at least 145%. Beijing has responded with its own reciprocal levies of 125%, sparking concerns over an intensifying trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies.

Trump suggested on Thursday that the much-anticipated discussions in Geneva on Saturday and Sunday will be substantive, saying he expects the soaring tariffs would eventually be lowered.

China’s Vice Foreign Minister has said the country has full confidence that it can handle trade issues with the U.S., adding that the draconian nature of the Trump administration’s tariff agenda cannot be sustained. Beijing has previously accused the U.S. of using the tariffs as a "coercion" tactic.

Nvidia planning to modify China-focused AI chip - Reuters

Nvidia is planning to release a less-powerful version of its H20 artificial intelligence chip in China within the next two months, as it moves to meet stricter U.S. export restrictions, Reuters reported on Friday.

The semiconductor giant has informed several major Chinese customers, including cloud computing services providers, of the move, Reuters reported, citing three sources familiar with the matter.

The H20 is the most powerful chip that Nvidia is allowed to sell in China, at least under Biden-era export controls. But the Trump administration recently signaled that it will impose new regulations on technology shipped to China, including rules requiring Nvidia to obtain a license to export the chip to the country.

Downgrading the H20 -- largely by lowering its computing power and slashing its memory capacity -- is expected to help Nvidia bypass the updated controls. The chip is at the forefront of China’s AI development efforts, and is used by a slew of companies ranging from AI startup DeepSeek to internet giants such as Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) and Alibaba (NYSE:BABA).

Oil climbs

Oil prices edged higher Friday, adding to the previous session’s gains as trade tensions eased ahead of talks between top oil consumers U.S. and China and after the announcement of the trade deal with Britain.

At 03:39 ET, Brent futures climbed 1.2% to $63.60 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 1.3% to $60.69 a barrel.

Both contracts settled nearly 3% higher on Thursday. Despite these gains, oil prices still remained close to four-year lows, as worries heightened economic uncertainty and its impact on crude demand remained.

source : Investing

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Michelle

Economic

Forex

China–U.S. Trade War

President Donald Trump needs to declare victories in his global trade battles soon or risk triggering a recession that could cost Republicans their slim majorities in Congress, according to analysts at Yardeni Research.

“President Donald Trump will need to declare victories in his trade wars with multiple countries around the world sooner rather than later,” the firm wrote. “He and his fellow Republicans have to avoid a recession caused by his tariff wars.”

The firm added that legal pressure is also mounting. Yardeni said, “Court cases are piling up that challenge the President’s legal authority to declare a crisis to justify his tariff hikes.”

They believe a ruling against the tariffs could give Trump an off-ramp: “He still could declare that he won the trade wars and so doesn’t need tariffs anymore.”

Markets have responded positively to signs of progress. “On April 9, stock investors were overjoyed that Trump postponed his April 2 Liberation Day reciprocal tariffs,” Yardeni said, adding that the S&P 500 has “regained almost all its losses” from early April’s “Annihilation Days.”

Recent announcements — including a U.S.-U.K. trade deal and upcoming talks with Chinese officials — have helped sustain the market’s momentum.

However, Yardeni warned that “the stock market will soon have deals fatigue and tire of Trump’s declarations of victory.”

Yardeni expects trade tensions to recede by midsummer: “We think the trade issue will be behind us by July or August,” the firm wrote.

After that, they believe attention could shift to the economic damage already done. Still, the firm remains optimistic, citing resilient unemployment data and temporary hits to productivity.

“We’re still betting on a Roaring 2020s scenario,” Yardeni said, driven by “technological innovations boosting productivity and real economic growth while keeping a lid on inflation.”