Bitcoin Breaks $114K As Cooling US PPI Data Boosts Fed Rate Cut Bets

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin (BTC) surged above $114,000 for the first time since Aug. 24, extending its recent recovery as US inflation data came in far cooler than expected.

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin broke $114,000 as data showed PPI inflation cooled sharply in August.

Traders believe the data could push the Federal Reserve to cut rates in September.

Long-term onchain trends show short-term turbulence occurring after Fed rate cuts, then longer-term upside.

Bitcoin (BTC) surged above $114,000 for the first time since Aug. 24, extending its recent recovery as US inflation data came in far cooler than expected. The move follows the release of the August Producer Price Index (PPI), which dropped to 2.6% year-over-year versus forecasts of 3.3%. Core PPI, which strips out food and energy, fell to 2.8%, well below the 3.5% consensus.

Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

On a monthly basis, PPI even turned negative, marking only the second contraction since March 2024, according to the Kobeissi newsletter. Adding to the dovish tone, inflation figures from July were revised lower as well, with headline PPI adjusted to 3.1% from 3.4% and core PPI to 3.4% from 3.7%. In addition to the historic US jobs data revision earlier this week, which erased 911,000 jobs from the past 12 months, markets are viewing interest rate cuts as increasingly imminent.

Market analyst Skew noted that producer inflation trends often lag behind those of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by one to three months. This means sticky CPI readings could still appear in the short run, though the broader trajectory points to cooling inflation into Q4. While the PPI slowdown is encouraging, hedge flows may continue until CPI confirms the easing trend.

Bitcoin’s historical reaction to Fed rate cuts

With Federal Reserve interest rate cuts looking extremely likely, Bitcoin’s history shows a consistent pattern of turbulence followed by upside. Two onchain metrics, Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) and Whale Ratio, shed further light.

MVRV compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to its realized capitalization (the aggregate value at which coins last moved). When MVRV hovers near 1, BTC is typically undervalued, and levels near 3–4 suggest overheated valuations.

Meanwhile, Whale Ratio measures the share of large holder transactions in exchange flows, showing when whales are sending coins to sell or pulling them back for storage.

Source: CryptoQuant

Data from CryptoQuant highlights that in March 2020, interest rate cuts sent MVRV collapsing toward 1 as panic wiped out investors’ speculative gains, while the Whale Ratio spiked on heavy whale selling.

As liquidity flooded in, the MVRV rebounded, and whales shifted to accumulation, fueling Bitcoin’s 2020–2021 bull run. A similar pattern repeated during the late 2024 easing cycle, when both indicators reflected short-term selling before stabilizing into another rally.

If history rhymes, Fed easing in 2025 could again bring initial volatility, but overall provide the liquidity backdrop for Bitcoin to approach new highs.

Source: CoinGecko

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Adam

Stocks

S&P 500 Futures Inch Higher as Traders Eye PPI and Fed Rate Path

Daily E-mini S&P 500 Index

Stock index futures were mixed early Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 inching higher while Dow futures slipped, as investors braced for the first of two critical inflation updates that could set the tone for the Federal Reserve’s next move. With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at record highs on Tuesday, momentum remains positive—but fragile—as attention shifts to the producer price index (PPI) due this morning at 12:30 GMT.

Will the PPI Report Support a September Rate Cut from the Fed?

Today’s PPI release is the first of two inflation readings that could sway the Fed’s rate decision next week. Wall Street expects both headline and core producer prices to rise 0.3% in August, a pace that would signal persistent input cost pressures. Traders are pricing in a 25-basis-point cut at the September 17 FOMC meeting, but hotter-than-expected numbers could cast doubt on that move.

Early Wednesday, the 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.09%, while the dollar and gold were steady—reflecting a wait-and-see mood ahead of the data.

Oracle Rockets on AI Cloud Deals—Can the Rally Hold?

Daily Oracle Corporation

Oracle shares surged 29% premarket after disclosing $455 billion in remaining performance obligations, driven by four multibillion-dollar AI cloud deals. This backlog is up 359% year-over-year. Despite missing Q1 earnings estimates, the company forecast 14%–16% revenue growth for Q2 and expects cloud infrastructure revenue to hit $18 billion this year. Oracle also plans to invest $35 billion in data center expansion, potentially increasing that number based on demand. If the stock holds gains, it would mark Oracle’s best single-day performance since 1999.

UnitedHealth Lifts Dow as Buffett’s Bet Gains Credibility

UnitedHealth jumped 8.6% Tuesday after reaffirming its 2025 earnings outlook and calming fears over Medicare Advantage star ratings. Roughly 78% of its MA plan membership is estimated to fall within the four-star-or-higher category, supporting reimbursement levels. Warren Buffett’s $1.57 billion stake in the insurer has gained 12% in value since Q2, adding to bullish sentiment.

OPEC+ Supply Gains Keep Oil Traders Cautious Despite Middle East Tensions

WTI crude rose modestly to $62.90 a barrel despite geopolitical tensions following Israel’s strike on Hamas leadership in Qatar. Traders remained focused on the supply picture, as OPEC+ raised October output by 137,000 barrels per day. The EIA sees global supply outpacing demand, projecting inventories to build and pressure prices lower heading into year-end.

What’s Next for Markets? Watch CPI and Fed Reaction

The CPI report on Thursday could be the deciding factor for a September rate cut. JPMorgan warns that even a confirmed cut might trigger a “sell-the-news” reaction as investor positioning appears stretched and retail momentum is cooling.

With AI-linked names like Oracle gaining steam and gold drawing renewed interest as a hedge, traders will be monitoring inflation trends, Fed commentary, and retail participation closely to assess sustainability in this record-setting market.

Source: fxempire

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Damon

Central Bank

A Senate committee on Wednesday approved the nomination of White House economic adviser Stephen Miran to the Fed's board of governors, setting up a likely approval by the full Senate, which would make Miran the third Trump appointee to the seven-member board.

The White House has pushed for an expedited Senate approval of Miran, who was nominated by President Donald Trump to replace former Fed governor Adriana Kugler, who stepped down Aug. 1. Miran would, if approved, simply finish her term, which expires in January. He may be approved in time for the Fed's meeting next week, when it is widely expected to reduce its key short-term interest rate.

The committee voted to approve Miran on partisan lines, 13-11, with all Democrats voting against confirmation.

Miran's nomination has raised concerns about the Fed's independence from day-to-day politics, particularly since he said during a hearing last week that he would keep his job as head of the White House's Council of Economic Advisers while on the Fed's board, a historically unusual arrangement. Presidents have nominated members of their staffs to the Fed's board before, but the nominees have always given up their White House jobs.

The vote comes a day after a federal court blocked Trump's effort to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook, who he has accused of mortgage fraud.

“The Federal Reserve was designed to make decisions free from political interference, guided by data and the long-term stability of our economy, not the political agenda of any one president," Sen. Mark Warner, a Democrat from Virginia, said in a statement before the vote. “Donald Trump has made clear he wants to tear down that independence, just as he has with so many of the institutions that have kept our democracy and our economy strong.”

Miran said he would step down from his White House position if he is chosen for a longer term. Yet he can remain on the board after Kugler's term ends in January, if no replacement is named. He has said in that case he would consider keeping his White House job even if he remains on the board after January, sparking fresh criticism from Democrats.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Samantha Luan

Economic

Forex

Political

Schroders Plc has become the latest global asset manager to be caught up in Hong Kong’s commercial property meltdown.Within just a few months, two assets managed by its property investment arm have been seized by bank creditors.Now it faces a new challenge relating to a loan for a three-floor commercial space at Harbourfront Landmark in Hong Kong’s Hung Hom district. The facility was not repaid on the original maturity date. The lender, Bank of Communications (Hong Kong) Ltd., is now weighing various options for the loan including potentially demanding immediate repayment and then enforcing it, according to people familiar with the matter. No final decision has been made, they added.

Schroders’ losses underscore the increasing strain global firms face from Hong Kong’s slumping property market. Like many other financial sponsors, Schroders uses special purpose vehicles to act as borrowers for loans against its Hong Kong property assets. When troubles arise, lenders’ main option is to seize the underlying collateral, even if its value doesn’t cover the outstanding debt.In recent months, some bank creditors have ramped up pressure on firms with property-related debt in the city, as they see few signs of a market recovery and are eager to offload troubled assets. Average prices of office buildings and retail space in the city are down by 48% and 39%, respectively, from their 2018 highs, according to Hong Kong government data, eroding the value of collateral backing many bank facilities.

Schroders’ three troubled assets were part of its Pamfleet portfolio, which the company acquired in 2020, in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic and a crackdown on social unrest in Hong Kong. Pamfleet had $1.1 billion of assets under management at the time of the acquisition, which Schroders said would add expertise in the Asian real estate market.However, the cashflow generated by the properties had fallen short of expectations, according to people familiar with the matter.

The first property of the three to run into problems was the Nate, a serviced apartment tower located in the Tsim Sha Tsui district, which entered into receivership in July. A buyer later agreed to pay HK$272 million for the asset, a 49% discount from Schroders’ original purchase price of HK$530 million. Occupancy at the Nate dropped off during the 2019 protests in Hong Kong and didn’t pick up subsequently amid the city’s economic challenges, one of the people said.A Schroders’ spokesperson said the sale of the Nate is progressing and the company has secured a lease for all three floors of Harbourfront Landmark, but declined to comment further about other matters. Bank of Communications didn’t respond to a request for comment.

In August, bank creditors appointed receivers for another asset in the portfolio, the Worfu Mall in the North Point area, according to company registry records. The mall was used as collateral for a roughly HK$1.5 billion loan that a joint venture backed by Schroders and Chelsfield Asia Fund 1 defaulted on earlier this year. The shopping center was put up for sale in January, but no deal was reached.The venture paid HK$2 billion for the mall around the peak of the city’s commercial property boom in 2018, 88% above the appraised value at the time. The fund spent about HK$250 million on renovations to the property, aiming to boost rental prices, according to the people. The work was finished in 2020, just as the pandemic took hold.

As the property market in Hong Kong continues to languish, Brian Wong, a director at Quantuma International, a restructuring and insolvency services advisory firm, said his company has been fielding inquiries over potential receivership appointments.“We expect that more enforcement actions will occur in the next six months,” he added.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Commodity

Market Overview

Gold and silver extended gains in Asian trading on Wednesday as investors positioned for a more accommodative U.S. monetary policy. Markets now anticipate the Federal Reserve could lower borrowing costs as early as next week, with futures pricing in three rate cuts by year-end 2025, according to CME FedWatch data.

Traders also see a 15% probability of a larger 50-basis-point cut, reflecting concerns over slowing economic momentum.

A weaker U.S. labor market reinforced these expectations. Nonfarm payrolls for August showed subdued job creation and a rise in unemployment, adding to evidence that growth is cooling.

“The Fed’s challenge is balancing inflation control with mounting risks to employment,” said a Johannesburg-based commodities analyst.

Safe-Haven Demand Supports Metals

Silver, like gold, drew inflows on renewed safe-haven demand. Tensions escalated after Israel conducted an airstrike in Doha, Qatar, targeting Hamas leadership. The development followed months of regional instability, with military activity also reported in Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.

In Europe, Poland raised its air defenses in response to heavy Russian attacks near its border, underscoring risks of conflict spillover.

Political uncertainty added another layer of volatility. France’s government faced turbulence after Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned following a failed confidence vote, while Japan’s Prime Minister announced his intention to step down. These developments, analysts note, have contributed to a cautious global investment climate.

To build consistency in gold trading, it’s essential to study Trend Following With Commodities: How To Implement A Classic Trading Strategy.

Dollar Strength and Equities Temper Momentum

Despite these tailwinds, gains in precious metals were capped by a modest rebound in the U.S. dollar and record highs on Wall Street. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both notched new peaks on Tuesday, buoyed by stronger corporate earnings, which drew some flows away from defensive assets.

Still, legal and institutional developments in Washington helped steady sentiment in bullion markets.

A U.S. federal judge blocked former President Donald Trump from removing Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a move seen as preserving the central bank’s independence. Traders now turn to U.S. producer and consumer price index releases later this week for clearer guidance on the Fed’s path.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold holds near $3,644 with support at $3,627 and resistance at $3,652–$3,674. Silver trades around $41.13, targeting $41.68–$42.00 while support sits at $41.00–$40.72.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold – Chart

Gold is trading near $3,644, holding within a short-term uptrend channel on the 2-hour chart. Price recently tested resistance at $3,652, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci level, before easing back.

Immediate support lies at $3,638 (38.2% retracement), with stronger backing around $3,627 and the trendline.

Momentum is steady, with the RSI at 59 suggesting mild buying strength without being overbought. A close above $3,652 could open the way to $3,674, while failure to hold above $3,627 may trigger a pullback toward $3,616.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading around $41.13, moving within an upward channel on the 2-hour chart. Price recently bounced from the lower boundary near $41.00, supported by the 50-EMA at $40.96, keeping the broader bullish structure intact. The next resistance levels sit at $41.38 and $41.68, both aligning with the mid- and upper-channel lines.

Momentum remains steady, with the RSI at 53 showing balanced conditions after recovering from oversold territory. If buyers sustain above $41.00, silver could extend toward $41.68–$42.00.

On the other hand, a break below $40.72 would weaken the current channel and expose support at $40.47. Overall, the trend favors the upside while price holds above $41.00, with traders watching for confirmation near $41.38.

Source: fxempire

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Michelle

Economic

Forex

U.S. wholesale inventories increased a bit less than initially thought in July, suggesting businesses were not rushing to rebuild inventory after stocks were depleted in the second quarter.

Stocks at wholesalers edged up 0.1%, instead of rising 0.2% as estimated last month, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had expected last month's estimate would be unrevised.

Inventories, a key part of gross domestic product, gained 0.2% in June. They advanced 1.3% on a year-over-year basis in July. Wholesale stocks of motor vehicles dropped 1.6%. But stocks of apparel surged 1.9%, while those of prescription medication increased 1.8%. Grocery inventories increased 2.0%.

Inventories decreased at a $32.9 billion annualized rate in the second quarter, subtracting 3.29 percentage points from GDP. That was, however, more than offset by a record 4.95 percentage point contribution from a smaller trade deficit.

The economy grew at a 3.3% annualized rate last quarter after contracting at a 0.5% pace in the first quarter.

Sales at wholesalers jumped 1.4% in July after rising 0.7% in June. At July's sales pace it would take wholesalers 1.28 months to clear shelves, down from 1.29 months in June.

Source: Yahoo Finance

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Keir Starmer is tightening his grip on economic policy by beefing up a committee that will help shape the 26 November budget.

Pensions minister Torsten Bell and Starmer’s new chief economic adviser, Minouche Shafik, will co-chair the “budget board”, that will meet weekly to discuss the details of the statement.

Government sources said the meetings were aimed at ensuring No 10 and No 11 were aligned and that there was not a repeat of the backlash from businesses that followed Rachel Reeves’s maiden budget.

Starmer has looked to increase his grip on economic policy in recent weeks, by appointing Shafiq, poaching Reeves’s No 2, Darren Jones, and appointing a longtime Treasury civil servant to be his principal private secretary.

Reeves and her team were blamed for a series of political missteps last year, including slashing the winter fuel allowance, while business lobby groups have blamed her £25bn increase in employer national insurance contributions (NICs) for raising the cost of hiring and forcing them to push up prices.

With the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) widely expected to downgrade its forecasts, the chancellor is expected to have to find significant tax increases in November, to avoid busting her fiscal rules in five years’ time.

Bell, the former director of the Resolution Foundation thinktank, has previously suggested a series of radical tax policies, including on inheritance tax, pensions and national insurance.

But government officials confirmed the panel would also include Reeves’s chief of staff, Katie Martin, who recently took on the job of liaising with businesses on Reeves’s behalf, and Varun Chandra, who canvasses firms for No 10. The trio are expected to bring a business perspective to the discussions, which is likely to inject a note of caution around more radical policies.

Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, who was seen by some in government as one of the driving forces behind the botched welfare reforms at the spring statement, will also attend.

The prime minister’s new chief secretary, Darren Jones – previously a Treasury minister – and the communications directors from both No 10 and No 11, will sit on the board, too, officials confirmed.

Also on the board will be Starmer’s new communications chief, Tim Allan, a veteran of Tony Blair’s time in government, with the former prime minister once describing him as “even more right wing than me”.

Business groups have insisted Reeves should look elsewhere if she wants to raise more revenue, with the CBI’s chief executive, Rain Newton-Smith, arguing in the Guardian on Tuesday that Labour should instead consider breaking its manifesto pledges not to increase taxes on “working people”.

She also called for radical tax reform, including on VAT thresholds for firms, and the much-criticised stamp duty.

In the aftermath of last year’s budget, which included £40bn of tax rises, Reeves told the CBI’s annual conference that she was “not coming back with more borrowing or more taxes”.