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Chip design and fabrication companies such as Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia and TSMC are the major drivers of the US tech stock market. TSMC market cap size alone is 43 times larger than the leading Taiwanese packaging company with US listing, Advanced Semiconductor Engineering (ASE), which has a market cap of US$22 billion . After the design phase, advanced (semiconductor) packaging is the agglomeration of manufacturing processes combining multiple semiconductor chips into a single electronics circuit or device.

Traditionally, chip packaging relied on manual processes but as automation enabled faster and cheaper production, innovative processes increased device capability and quality while reducing energy, material consumption and costs. As demand for AI models grew, the need for advanced packaging technologies has grown in tandem significantly, since packing multiple chips and processes into one component could enable higher computing power, memory and bandwidth while reducing heat, energy and space. The smaller and more powerful the computing chip package (dense chip integration), the greater their use in mobile devices and smart defence equipment.

The megatrends of AI, high-performance computing, automotive and specific application chips are driving the growth of advanced packaging. Recent integrated circuit (IC) statistics from Yole Group show that advanced packaging revenue accounted for 44% of the total IC packaging market in 2023. The advanced packaging market is expected to surpass traditional packaging by 2028.

Nvidia leads the generative AI market with its GPUs, experiencing strong growth in data centre business, while AMD’s MI300 and Intel’s Gaudi are also catching up. In addition, major cloud tech giants like Amazon, Google and China’s Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent and Xiaomi (BATX) are developing their own AI cloud chips to reduce reliance on GPUs from fabless companies. Both GPUs and AI cloud chips require extensive vector and matrix calculations for training and inferencing, and advanced packaging is crucial to ensure low latency, high speed and low power consumption while increasing denser chip integration.

Global advanced packaging revenue reached almost US$40 billion in 2023 and outsourced semiconductor assembly and testing (Osat) companies are the main players in this field, with Taiwan’s ASE, American global packaging company Amkor and China’s Jiangsu Changjiang Electronics Tech Co (JCET) together accounting for 45% of high-end IC packaging revenues. Meanwhile, according to Yole Group estimates, integrated device manufacturers (IDMs) and foundries such as Intel, Samsung and TSMC accounted for around 28% of the advanced packaging market, with a frontrunner lead in 3D stacking technology. Of this, Taiwan’s ASE alone contributed half of the global Osat revenue, which surpassed the combined revenues of Intel and Samsung. Although ASE and TSMC compete in the same market space, ASE has been able to access TSMC’s broad client base, particularly smartphone manufacturers that require specific packaging technologies.

Taiwan is the world’s largest IC packaging hub for both fabless companies and foundries, supplying more than 50% of the chips to China. While China falls behind global competitors in design and fabrication, it still plays a significant role in the global chip industry by providing 38% of the world’s IC packaging. JCET, the world’s third largest Osat company, is currently valued at US$7.8 billion, which is comparable with its US counterpart, Amkor, with a revenue of US$6.5 billion in 2023 compared with JCET’s US$4.2 billion.

With AI chips becoming more complex and powerful, the demand for advanced packaging will continue and even increase, yet supply remains constrained. As former TSMC Chairman Mark Liu replied during an interview at Semicon Taiwan 2023, “it’s not the shortage of AI chips. It’s the shortage of our Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate (CoWos) capacity”, which is a stacking technology. Since complex packages determine chip performance, the IC packaging industry will require more R&D and package designers to transform the ecosystem. Moreover, Boston Consulting Group has identified multichip package design as an area that will significantly enhance IC packaging value added.

Two weeks ago, Intel announced the finishing of its advanced packaging facility upgrade project in Penang but will align its operations to market conditions due to financial restructuring. Currently, ASE has recently completed its first plant in Malaysia, with a second plant underway in Penang. In addition, Siliconware Precision Industries , a subsidiary of ASE, as well as other Chinese and local Osats are developing advanced packaging technologies in Malaysia. Carsem, a subsidiary of Bursa-listed Malaysian Pacific Industries and ranked 19th in advanced packaging worldwide, saw its revenue growth averaging 14% between 2020-2023 due to rising chip demand for EV applications.

By comparison, Vitrox, an automated testing equipment (ATE) supplier, saw its revenue growth averaging 8% over the same period. The prospects for the advanced packaging market remain strong. Since it is part of Malaysia’s semiconductor strategy goals, small domestic companies in the supply chain will have to increase innovation, forge deep connections with large companies and leverage the latest technology processes in order to stay competitive.

Source: The edge markets

The World Bank has raised its forecast for Malaysia's economic growth for 2024 to 4.9%, up 0.6 percentage points from its previous forecast of 4.3% in April 2024, following the country's stronger-than-anticipated performance in the first half of the year that reflected robust growth in consumption, investment, and trade activity.

As an open trading economy, Malaysia is benefiting from the upcycle in global economic growth, which is expected to stabilise around 2.6% this year, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and high interest rates, according to the World Bank’s lead economist for Malaysia, Dr Apurva Sanghi.

"Overall, the Malaysian economy is in a rather good place. Growth is back — the second quarter growth of 5.9% exceeded expectations. Inflation is less than 2% — it is higher than in recent quarters but still moderate. Investments are on an uptick — year-on-year investments grew in the first half of the year, both approved foreign direct investments (FDI) and domestic investments," he said during a press briefing on the World Bank's Malaysia Economic Monitor October 2024 report.

Domestically, Malaysia's own political stability and an increasingly conducive positive environment are among factors that have contributed to the country's strong economic growth, which has boosted investors' confidence and mobilised more investments in the country, he said.

The World Bank's forecast is within the higher end of Malaysia's official projection of a gross domestic product growth of between 4% and 5% for 2024, following a 3.7% expansion in 2023.

Malaysia to achieve high income status by 2028

Based on its assumptions for USD/MYR exchange rate of 4.54 and an average annual growth rate of 4.3%, the World Bank anticipates Malaysia to reach high-income nation status by 2028, which is within its previous 2021 projection that it would happen between 2024 and 2028.

"These projections are highly sensitive to the assumptions, but this is what we project so far. And if the US dollar-ringgit exchange rate stays at the current levels of about 4.2, then the high income goal will be reached a year earlier — in 2027," Apurva said.

However, the economist warned that "high income" does not necessarily mean "high development" and that there is always the risk of reversal.

"So even if Malaysia were to reach high income, say in 2027 or 2028, if you look at countries such as Argentina, Russia in the past, [and] Venezuela; these countries have reached high income but due to poor macro-fiscal management or poor management of commodity exports and revenues, they slipped back to middle-income status," he said.

Source: The edge markets