Bear Market Rebound in Crypto Is Likely to Continue

Key takeaways:

The spike in trend score indicates a transition from distribution to accumulation across almost all cohorts. This shift mirrors a similar accumulation pattern observed in July, which aligned with Bitcoin’s rally to the previous all-time high of $124,500 reached on Aug. 14, from sub-$100,000 levels in June.

Bitcoin accumulation trend score. Source: Glassnode

Additional data from Glassnode reveals a resurgence in buying by small to mid-sized entities holding between 10 and 1,000 BTC, which have accumulated aggressively over the past few weeks.

Bitcoin accumulation trend score by cohort. Source: Glassnode

Notably, Bitcoin’s yearly absorption rate by exchanges has plunged below -130% as outflows continue. This signals a growing preference for self-custody or long-term investment.

Bitcoin yearly absorption rates. Source: Glassnode

Meanwhile, larger holders (100+ BTC) are scooping up almost one and a half times the new issuance, marking the fastest rate of accumulation among sharks and whales in Bitcoin’s history.

Bitcoin yearly absorption rates of whales and sharks. Source: Glassnode

“STHs account for the bulk of the losses, while LTH losses stay comparatively contained, indicating that the stress is largely on recent buyers.”Bitcoin realized losses by LTHs and STHs. Source: Glassnode

Source: Cointelegraph

Consumer spending, adjusted for changes in prices, was little changed in September, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data out Friday. That followed a downwardly revised 0.2% advance in August. The report was scheduled for release on Oct. 31 but was delayed by the government shutdown.

The so-called core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy items, rose 0.2% from August, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data out Friday. From the prior year, it was up 2.8%.

The BEA said the next release is yet to be rescheduled.

The pullback among consumers suggests the US economy's main growth engine was slowing before the longest-ever government shutdown started on Oct. 1. More recent data show that Black Friday sales were solid as shoppers searched for deals, but consumers are increasingly anxious about the job market and spending is largely being driven by wealthier households.

Separate data Friday showed consumer sentiment rose in early December for the first the first time in five months. The increase in the University of Michigan's index reflected more optimism about the outlook for personal finances as inflation expectations improved.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi speaks at a press conference following the arrest in the D.C. pipe bomber investigation, at the Justice Department in Washington, D.C., U.S., December 4, 2025. REUTERS/Jessica Koscielniak

U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi on Thursday ordered federal law enforcement to step up investigations into the anti-fascist antifa movement and similar "extremist groups," and asked the FBI to compile a list of entities possibly engaged in domestic terrorism, according to an internal memo reviewed by Reuters.

The memo, which was sent to prosecutors and federal law enforcement agencies, calls on the Justice Department to prioritize investigating and prosecuting acts of domestic terrorism, including any potential "tax crimes" involving "extremist groups" who defrauded the Internal Revenue Service.

It comes several months after President Donald Trump signed an order, opens new tab targeting antifa as a terrorist organization and pledged to go after left-wing groups following the assassination of Charlie Kirk.

Antifa, short for anti-fascist, is a "decentralized, leaderless movement composed of loose collections of groups, networks and individuals," according to the Anti-Defamation League, which tracks extremists.

A Justice Department spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the memo.

"These domestic terrorists use violence or the threat of violence to advance political and social agendas, including opposition to law and immigration enforcement; extreme views in favor of mass migration and open borders; adherence to radical gender ideology, anti-Americanism, anti-capitalism, or anti-Christianity," Bondi wrote in the memo.

She wrote that the FBI's Joint Terrorism Task Forces "shall prioritize the investigation of such conduct."

She also ordered federal law enforcement agencies to scour their files for any intelligence they may have on antifa groups and provide it to investigators.

The FBI and joint terrorism task forces will also be asked to investigate incidents over the past five years that may have involved acts of domestic terrorism, from the doxxing of law enforcement to the targeting of Supreme Court justices, according to the memo.

After the FBI compiles a list of possible groups engaged in alleged acts of domestic terrorism, the agency is required to develop new strategies similar to those used to counter violent and organized crime to "disrupt and dismantle entire networks of criminal activity."

The memo also calls on the department's grant-making offices to prioritize awarding funding to states and municipalities that have programs designed to protect against domestic terrorism, and it instructs the FBI to update and improve its tip line so that "witnesses and citizen journalists can send media of suspected acts of domestic terrorism."

Source: Reuters

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett backed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's call for a new residency requirement in the appointment of presidents of Federal Reserve banks.

"The reason we have all these regional Feds is that we want to make sure that we have a federalist system, where the different regions of the country that have different concerns" have voices at the table, Hassett, a frontrunner to become the next US central bank chief, said Friday on Fox Business.

Bessent on Wednesday said he will push for a new rule that candidates for regional Fed presidents must have lived in that district for at least three years — the latest move in a sweeping push to remake the Fed, which the Trump administration has accused of "mission creep" beyond monetary policy.

Fed presidents serve terms that are up for re-authorization every five years by the Board of Governors in Washington, with the current terms coming up in February. Asked whether a residency guideline would "derail" the approvals in February, Hassett said "that's something I've not discussed with everybody yet."

The NEC chief, whom Bloomberg reported last week is the top candidate to succeed Chair Jerome Powell when his term is up in May, was also asked wither President Donald Trump plans to veto any Fed president who hasn't lived in their district for three years. Hassett said "I've not discussed that with him."

"The unfortunate thing about the current design of the Federal Reserve is that the only folks who always get a vote on interest rates are the people who live in Washington and the people who live in New York," Hassett said. He said he and Bessent had discussed changing that, while adding, "I think it wouldn't require anybody to go in and fire anybody who's there now."

Hassett reiterated his expectation that Fed policymakers will lower interest rates at their meeting next week. "It's a good time for the Fed to cautiously reduce rates again," he said.

Hassett also said he anticipates a boom in economic growth in early 2026 as the country bounces back from a hit from the recent federal government shutdown and sees the fruits of new factories coming online. And he predicted a surge in productivity, helped by investments in artificial intelligence.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Source: finance.yahoo

Gold prices rose on Friday as expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week gained traction, with investors awaiting U.S. inflation data that could clarify the central bank's next move.

Spot goldrose 0.7% to $4,235.59 per ounce, as of 1416 GMT, and was on track for a 0.1% weekly gain.

U.S. gold futuresfor February delivery edged 0.6% higher to $4,266.50 per ounce.

"The odds are there for a rate cut... gold is retesting and reaffirming the $4,200/oz level. Although it has been volatile, the trajectory and momentum has been positive this week," said Alex Ebkarian, COO at Allegiance Gold.

Lower interest rates generally support gold, which is a non-yielding asset.

CME's FedWatch tool now shows an 87.2% chance that the U.S. central bank will cut rates next week.

Traders are waiting for September's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data later today after it was delayed due to the government shutdown. The release is expected to show a 0.2% monthly rise and 2.9% annual growth.

This follows Wednesday's labor market data, which showed private payrolls fell in November by the sharpest margin in over 2-1/2 years.

Several Fed policymakers have adopted a dovish tone recently.

Morgan Stanley projected a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed at its December 9-10 meeting, in line with estimates from J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, and a majority of Reuters-polled economists.

Meanwhile, physical gold demand in India and China eased this week as buyers wait for a correction in spot prices.

Silverrose 2.2% to $58.34 an ounce, up 3.5% for the week, after touching a record $58.98 on Wednesday.

The white metal has rallied 101% this year, fueled by supply deficits and its designation on the U.S. critical minerals list.

Platinumfell 0.4% to $1,640.23 and was set for a weekly loss, while palladiumgained 1.2% to $1,465.29 and was poised to end the week higher.

Source: TradingView