Barron's Stock Picks Beat the Market in 2025. What We Got Right — and Wrong. — Barrons.com

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Paramount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock

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Dollar General

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Madison Square Garden Sports

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Sphere Entertainment

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By Ben Levisohn

As it turns out, a little chaos can be very good for stock-picking.

For investors, last year will be remembered for Trump's Liberation Day selloff and the massive rally back from the brink; for DeepSeek's challenge to the dominant artificial-intelligence companies; and gold's continued rally in what was either a search for a haven or the ultimate risk-on trade. In other words, it was a mess.

But with the dominant themes being challenged, last year wasn't all about Big Tech. And that meant that Barron's stockpickers stood a fighting chance when it came to beating the market. And beat it they did, with the average Barron's pick last year gaining 10.4% from the time we recommended it to the end of the year, outperforming the average benchmark gain of 9.2% over the same periods.

Many of our best picks resulted from a willingness to go against the grain with out-of-favor stocks — and impeccable timing. We recommended buying Dollar General on Jan. 31, 2025, when it was near its lowest level in more than six years, arguing that the company's problems were more than reflected in the price. Shares gained 87% through the end of 2025, easily beating the S&P 500's 14% rise over the corresponding period. Similarly, we recommended buying Paramount Skydance on Aug. 8, immediately after the completion of its merger, a moment that was portrayed as hopeless for the newly combined company. Instead, shares climbed 28%, beating the benchmark's 7.7% rise.

We also managed to turn the so-called Dolan discount into a premium. James Dolan, of Madison Square Garden Sports and other MSG companies, has never been known as the most shareholder-friendly of owners, resulting in many of his companies underperforming. Last year bucked that trend. Barron's recommended buying Sphere Entertainment, which operates a high-tech theater in Las Vegas, on May 9, arguing that its success would lead to more Spheres globally. The stock gained 193%, beating the S&P 500's 24%.

But Sphere wasn't the only Dolan property to outperform in 2025. Madison Square Garden Sports, owner of the New York Knicks and Rangers, gained 20% after we recommended it on Sept. 19, outpacing the benchmark's 0.3% rise over the same period, as billion-dollar deals for teams like the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers pushed the stock higher.

We even managed to capitalize on volatility in the AI trade. When DeepSeek, a Chinese AI company, announced results that caused a selloff in everything connected to artificial intelligence, we recommended scooping up shares of Amphenol on the dip. The maker of connectors, cables, and other electrical components is the proverbial picks-and-shovels play, and as the AI trade rebounded, so did Amphenol. Its stock rose 96% after we recommended it on Jan. 29, besting the S&P 500's 15% rise. Another AI play, Arista Networks, gained 38% after we recommended it on June 5, outpacing the index's 16% increase.

Other winners included cruise-line operator Viking Holdings, which gained 61% to the benchmark's 11%; Innodata, which rose 39% against its benchmark's 6.1% rise; and miner Newmont, which rose 46% as gold prices surged, beating the S&P 500's 6.7%.

We had our fair share of stinkers. In the cases of Pinterest and Phreesia — two of our worst picks, with declines of 25% and 38%, respectively — our bull cases simply proved to be, well, too bullish. Others suffered from bad timing, such as when we recommended buying Dell Technologies and Netflix after both stocks had gone on serious runs and were trading at premium valuations. In the case of pet-food purveyor Freshpet — our worst pick, with a decline of 54% — we not only misunderstood the company's moat but got the timing wrong, too.

Still, we feel pretty good about our performance. Even with just two of the Magnificent Seven outperforming the S&P 500 last year, it was still a tough year for stockpickers, with just 152 stocks in the benchmark, or about 30%, outperforming the index. Against that backdrop, our 44% success rate looks pretty decent, as does our outperformance.

With more mayhem on the docket in 2026, we'll aim to be even better.

Write to Ben Levisohn at ben.levisohn@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

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Q3 Earnings Roundup: E.W. Scripps (NASDAQ:SSP) And The Rest Of The Broadcasting Segment

Stock Story

The end of an earnings season can be a great time to discover new stocks and assess how companies are handling the current business environment. Let’s take a look at how E.W. Scripps and the rest of the broadcasting stocks fared in Q3.

Broadcasting companies have been facing secular headwinds in the form of consumers abandoning traditional television and radio in favor of streaming services. As a result, many broadcasting companies have evolved by forming distribution agreements with major streaming platforms so they can get in on part of the action, but will these subscription revenues be as high quality and high margin as their legacy revenues? Only time will tell which of these broadcasters will survive the sea changes of technological advancement and fragmenting consumer attention.

The 7 broadcasting stocks we track reported a mixed Q3. As a group, revenues were in line with analysts’ consensus estimates while next quarter’s revenue guidance was 0.8% below.

In light of this news, share prices of the companies have held steady as they are up 2.7% on average since the latest earnings results.

E.W. Scripps

Founded as a chain of daily newspapers, E.W. Scripps is a diversified media enterprise operating a range of local television stations, national networks, and digital media platforms.

E.W. Scripps reported revenues of $525.9 million, down 18.6% year on year. This print was in line with analysts’ expectations, and overall, it was a satisfactory quarter for the company with a solid beat of analysts’ adjusted operating income estimates but a significant miss of analysts’ EPS estimates.

Local Media division core advertising revenue was up 2% in the third quarter, driven by the services category and overall growth in national advertising due to strong sales execution and Scripps’ sports strategy. During the fourth quarter, the company expects strong core revenue growth, buoyed by its new agreement with the National Hockey League’s Tampa Bay Lightning, continued growth across live sports markets and the comparison to last year’s political advertising displacement of core advertising. The Scripps Networks division continues to capitalize on the networks’ broad distribution on streaming platforms to grow connected TV revenue, up 41% in the quarter and helping to offset softness due to economic uncertainty. Networks revenue came in better than peers at about flat for Q3 and, combined with a 7% reduction in expenses, the division delivered a 27% margin. The WNBA season on ION wrapped successfully, with linear and connected TV revenue growing 92% over the 2024 season despite Caitlin Clark’s absence due to injury. Demand for the WNBA and other women’s sports on ION in this year’s upfront cycle was strong, with sports volume up 30% and commanding premium ad rates. Scripps recently announced the sale of two network-affiliated stations: WFTX in Fort Myers, Florida, to Sun Broadcasting, and WRTV in Indianapolis to Circle City Broadcasting, with total proceeds of $123 million. These transactions follow plans announced in July to swap stations across five markets in four states with Gray Media. This optimization of the Scripps portfolio supports the company’s strategy to improve the operating performance of its local stations and pay down debt. On Aug. 6, Scripps closed on the placement of $750 million in new senior secured second-lien notes at a rate of 9.875%. Proceeds were used to pay off the company’s 2027 senior notes; pay down $205 million of its 2028 term loan B-2; and pay off a portion of its revolving credit facilities. The company has since paid off the remaining balance on its revolving credit facilities. Net leverage at the end of the third quarter was 4.6x, down from 4.9x at the end of the first quarter and in line with the company’s projected year-end leverage. Scripps’ local television stations led an employee- and on-air campaign to raise money for the Scripps Howard Fund’s ninth annual “If You Give a Child a Book …” campaign, and proceeds will allow the Fund to invest a record-breaking $1.8 million during the 2025-2026 academic year to provide more than 300,000 books to children at low-income schools across the United States.

Interestingly, the stock is up 63.7% since reporting and currently trades at $3.36.

Best Q3: FOX

Founded in 1915, Fox is a diversified media company, operating prominent cable news, television broadcasting, and digital media platforms.

FOX reported revenues of $3.74 billion, up 4.9% year on year, outperforming analysts’ expectations by 4.6%. The business had a stunning quarter with a beat of analysts’ EPS estimates and a solid beat of analysts’ EBITDA estimates.

FOX scored the biggest analyst estimates beat and fastest revenue growth among its peers. The market seems happy with the results as the stock is up 13.5% since reporting. It currently trades at $69.

Paramount

Owner of Spongebob Squarepants and formerly known as ViacomCBS, Paramount Global (NASDAQ:PARA) is a major media conglomerate offering television, film production, and digital content across various global platforms.

Paramount reported revenues of $6.70 billion, down 3.4% year on year, falling short of analysts’ expectations by 5.6%. It was a softer quarter as it posted a miss of analysts’ Filmed Entertainment revenue estimates and a miss of analysts’ TV Media revenue estimates.

Paramount delivered the weakest performance against analyst estimates in the group. As expected, the stock is down 25.4% since the results and currently trades at $11.38.

Read our full analysis of Paramount’s results here.

Gray Television

Specializing in local media coverage, Gray Television is a broadcast company supplying digital media to various markets in the United States.

Gray Television reported revenues of $749 million, down 21.2% year on year. This result met analysts’ expectations. Taking a step back, it was a satisfactory quarter as it also logged a beat of analysts’ EPS estimates but revenue guidance for next quarter missing analysts’ expectations.

Gray Television had the slowest revenue growth among its peers. The stock is down 8.6% since reporting and currently trades at $4.21.

Read our full, actionable report on Gray Television here, it’s free.

iHeartMedia

Occasionally featuring celebrity hosts like Ryan Seacrest on its shows, iHeartMedia is a leading multimedia company renowned for its extensive network of radio stations, digital platforms, and live events across the globe.

iHeartMedia reported revenues of $997 million, down 1.1% year on year. This print surpassed analysts’ expectations by 1.9%. Taking a step back, it was a softer quarter as it logged a significant miss of analysts’ adjusted operating income estimates and a significant miss of analysts’ EPS estimates.

The stock is down 30.2% since reporting and currently trades at $3.19.

Read our full, actionable report on iHeartMedia here, it’s free.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Dj How To Fix Disney: A Road Map For The Next Ceo - Barrons.Com

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Paramount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock

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Warner Bros Discovery

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Dj Sec Is Still Crushing The Big Ten On Tv

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Disney

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JPMorgan Flags Upside For Low-End Consumer Stocks On Trump Affordability Push — DLTR, DG, LUV, CHH On The List

Stocktwits

JPMorgan Chase’s (JPM) head of equity strategy, Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, believes that U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration is likely to increase its affordability efforts ahead of the midterm election season and this will boost companies targeting low-income consumers.

Lakos-Bujas said in a note to clients, according to a CNBC report, that while the White House’s affordability efforts at present have not had widespread impact, this would likely change ahead of the November midterm elections.

“A shift in policymaking towards affordability has favored value-oriented themes as the administration positions itself ahead of the November midterm elections,” Lakos-Bujas said in the note.

The bank named 10 U.S. companies likely to benefit from its exposure to lower-income consumers.

Analyst Rationale

Lakos-Bujas said that he continues to favor stocks catering to the low-end consumer, a group that has been strained by persistently high inflation, adding that tax cuts in the “big beautiful bill” and falling gasoline prices are reasons to be optimistic about this group.

The analyst also highlighted Trump’s efforts to cap credit card rates in the short term and ban large institutions from buying houses as signs of the president’s growing focus on affordability.

Trump said earlier this month that he would introduce a one-year 10% cap on credit card interest rates, citing the exorbitantly high rates at present. The President also said that he will ban large institutional investors from buying single-family homes to address housing affordability amid soaring home prices. Separately, Trump also said he would be instructing representatives to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds to bring down mortgage rates and make the cost of owning a home more affordable.

The Companies That Made The Cut

Consumer retailers Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) and Dollar General Corp. (DG) made it to the list, along with off-price retailer Burlington Stores Inc. (BURL) and multinational company Walmart Inc. (WMT).

Hunt-focused value retailer Dollar Tree recently received a downgrade from BNP Paribas to ‘Underperform’ from ‘Neutral’ and a cut in its price target to $87, down from $118, citing a weaker sales environment and a fall in consumable units. However, DLT shares have gained over 78% in the past year.

Meanwhile, Walmart has been gaining from a recent surge in AI-driven traffic, emerging as a key product discovery entry point for consumers. WMT shares have risen over 25% in the last one year.

Financial companies Citigroup Inc. (C) and Western Union Co. (WU) also made the cut. AI-lending platform Upstart Holdings (UPST), and credit card company Bread Financial Holdings (BFH) were the other financial companies that Lakos-Bujas named as potential beneficiaries from Trump’s affordability push.

Others on the analyst’s list include low-cost flyer Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) and hospitality company Choice Hotels International, Inc. (CHH).

Shares of C and BFH have gained over 38% and 6% in the past year while shares of WU and UPST have each lost over 8% and 35% respectively in the same period.

LUV stock has risen over 32% while CHH stock has lost over 28% in the last 12 months.

Meanwhile, S&P Retail Select Industry Index (SPSIRE), which features discount retailers, gained over 10% in the past year and the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) gained over 6%.

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