Arthur Hayes Deploys $3.4 Million into 4 DeFi Tokens: Bet on 2026 Comeback?

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, has recorded its very first red candle after the halving year in history. 

 This means that Bitcoin's four-year cycle is pretty much over since there was no post-halving supply shock. 

The "four-year cycle" theory relied on the post-halving year being the most explosive period of growth.

Bitcoin used to experience enormous rallies during post-halving rallies (2013, 2017, and 2021). The supply shock of the halving forced price appreciation within 12–18 months. 

Diminishing returns 

The chart shows a clear trend of "diminishing returns". Each subsequent green candle is smaller than the last. 

Due to the introduction of ETFs and institutional capital, Bitcoin has become a "macro asset" with lower volatility. It is no longer being viewed as a high-growth speculative bet.

The "broken" cycle in 2025 was essentially foretold in early 2024.

This cycle was historically unique because the flagship cryptocurrency broke its all-time high in March 2024. This happened roughly one month before the halving actually occurred. 

During previous market cycles, ATHs would arrive 12–18 months after the halving events. 

The launch of spot ETFs is believed to be the main reason why the cycle started so early. This sucked all the liquidity out of the future. By the time 2025 arrived, the "institutional wall of money" that everyone expected had already been deployed in 2024. 

More broken stats

Bitcoin used to operate on a strict "1 bear year, 3 bull years" cadence. The data shows that 2025 just killed this streak. This is the first time since the 2014 bear market that Bitcoin failed to complete a trilogy of green candles.

On top of that, this is the first time that Bitcoin concluded a year with a price change of less than 10%. This once again shows that Bitcoin has lost its volatility.

Bitcoin price enters 2026 stuck in the same buyer-seller fight that kept it muted through late 2025. The price is almost flat over the past 30 days, down about 0.6%, which shows how neither side has taken control.

It is still down about 7% year on year. This balance of pressure has turned into a stalemate. However, a 1% or even a 3.5% move from here could decide the next direction if the right conditions appear.

Buyer and Seller Pressure Meet Inside a Symmetrical Triangle

Bitcoin is trading inside a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart. This shape shows the market trapped between lower highs and higher lows, hinting at the buyer-seller tussle. Capital flows are not helping the upside.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has trended lower since December 10. For the unversed, the CMF measures how much money flows into or out of an asset. It shows a bearish divergence now because the BTC price has trended higher between December 18 and December 31, while the CMF made lower lows. That signals continued outflows and selling pressure.

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This negative capital flow is being partially offset by exchange outflows.

Exchange net position change shows coins leaving exchanges. That often hints at accumulation. On December 19, exchange outflows were about 16,563 BTC. By January 1, they rose to 38,508 BTC.

That is an increase of about 132%. This push of coins leaving exchanges helps price stability and keeps the lower trendline of the triangle protected.

Smart Money Highlights Indecision

Smart Money Index readings confirm the lack of direction. The Smart Money Index compares how larger, informed traders position versus the broader market. The line is hugging its signal line with no clear separation. That hints that larger traders are waiting for a breakout and not betting on either direction yet.

Until the breakout happens, the triangle stays neutral.

This matches what CMF and exchange flow data are saying. Outflows signal pressure. Exchange withdrawals signal support. Together, they cancel each other and hold the BTC price still. And even the most informed traders are unsure as to which side would win.

Heat Map and Bitcoin Price Levels Reveal The Trigger Window

The cost basis heat map highlights clusters where many buyers last bought. These clusters often act like support or resistance. The nearest resistance zone is around $88,082 to $88,459, where about 200,035 BTC sit.

Bitcoin is trading near $87,480. A daily close roughly 1% higher would put the price above that zone. That could act as the first bullish trigger and settle the upper triangle break. On the BTC price chart, the level aligning with this cluster is $88,300, which needs to break first.

Downside levels look stronger (harder to break) near term. The closest high cost basis support sits at $84,449 to $84,845, where about 396,645 BTC rest.

On the price chart, the closest level to this cost basis support is $84,430. The Bitcoin price would need to fall about 3.5% to test that area. So bearish validation sits lower and needs more movement to confirm.

The chart and heat map align. Breaking $88,300 is the first bullish signal. A clean daily close above it turns focus to $89,500 and then $90,690. Losing $84,430 completely flips the setup downward and signals that sellers have won the fight.

Ripple, the San Francisco-headquartered enterprise blockchain company associated with the XRP token, has executed its scheduled monthly release for the start of the new year. A total of a billion tokens have been released in three separate tranches, according to the latest data provided by Whale Alert. 

Early clarity 

Ripple used to hold roughly 60% of the total XRP supply in its own wallets. Since there were no rules, no one knew how many tokens the San Francisco-based company would sell in a given month. 

Then, the company voluntarily locked 55 billion XRP into a series of cryptographically secured escrows on the ledger. These contracts were programmed to expire on the first day of every month (one by one). As noted by Ripple CTO David Schwartz, the escrow actually restricts the company's power to sell. 

This January 2026 unlock appears to have executed smoothly and "on time". 

In mid-2025, Ripple started moving funds internally and "re-locking" tokens before the main unlock appeared on trackers. This reversal confused some community members, and it even fueled some conspiracy theories. 

However, as reported by U.Today, the company went back to the familiar pattern later in the year. 

Ripple's re-locks 

What happens after the unlock is probably the most misunderstood part of this process. Historically, Ripple rarely uses the full 1 billion. They typically sell a portion to provide liquidity to ODL customers or fund operations. The company typically re-locks the remainder.

For instance, if they unlock 1 billion but only need 200 million, they will put the remaining 800 million into a new escrow contract that will open in the distant future. 

In the coming hours or days, Whale Alert will report several "re-lock" transactions. 

A cryptocurrency analyst has explained how XRP could be at risk of a drop toward $0.80 based on the data of some on-chain indicators.

XRP Has Seen Bearish Developments In On-Chain Data

In a new thread on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about why XRP may be at risk of seeing a decline to the $0.80 level. “First, network activity has cooled sharply,” noted Martinez. There are many ways to gauge network activity, but the analyst has used the Active Addresses on-chain indicator.

This metric keeps track of the total number of addresses that are taking part in some kind of transaction activity on the blockchain every day. A chart shared by the analyst earlier showed a drawdown in this metric for XRP.

Generally, a decline in the metric is a sign of a drop in interest around the asset. “Daily active addresses have fallen to roughly 38,500, pointing to fading participation and interest,” said Martinez.

Another on-chain indicator has also shown a development recently: the supply held by the whales. Whales refer to the big-money investors of the market who carry significant amounts in their wallets.

As the below chart shows, these investors participated in selling of about 40 million tokens recently.

Due to the massive size of their holdings, whales are considered to be influential entities on the network, so their behavior could be relevant for the cryptocurrency. As these massive hands have been selling on the XRP blockchain recently, it’s possible that the coin could feel a bearish effect. If nothing else, the trend reflects that the asset’s key investors are showing weaker confidence.

Finally, the analyst has shared a chart for the cryptocurrency’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD). This indicator basically tells us about the amount of supply that investors last purchased at the various price levels that the coin has visited in its history.

From the chart, it’s visible that a notable amount of supply has its cost basis at the $1.77 level, which isn’t too far below the current XRP spot price. It’s possible that if the asset retests this level, these investors who purchased there could show some kind of reaction.

When the market mood is bullish, this reaction tends to be dominated by buying. Given the current sentiment in the digital asset sector, however, the support may not be sufficient. “If selling pressure continues, XRP risks losing the $1.77 support,” explained Martinez. “A breakdown there opens the door to the next major support zone near $0.80.”

This support zone near $0.80 is currently the largest demand zone beyond the $1.77 level.

XRP Price

At the time of writing, XRP is floating around $1.86, unchanged from one week ago.

The key policy maker who oversaw the launch of regulated Bitcoin futures in the US has returned as the Commodities Futures Trading Commission’s chief of staff after a six-year hiatus. 

In a Wednesday announcement, the CFTC welcomed back Amir Zaidi with chairman Michael Selig emphasizing the wealth of experience Zaidi will bring. 

“I’m grateful for his willingness to return as chief of staff and for his continued dedication and service to both the CFTC and our stakeholders. Amir was instrumental in the historic launch of CFTC-regulated bitcoin futures contracts during President Trump’s first term,” Selig said.

“With Congress poised to send digital asset market structure legislation to the President’s desk, he will bring tremendous experience and expertise to the CFTC as it develops fit-for-purpose regulations for our rapidly evolving commodity markets,” he added. 

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has urged countries to focus on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) over privately-issued stablecoins, citing concerns about financial stability.

In its December financial stability report, released on Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) argued that CBDCs preserve the “singleness of money and the integrity of the financial system,” and should remain as the “ultimate settlement asset,” and the “anchor for trust in money.”

“The RBI, therefore, strongly advocates that countries should prioritise central bank digital currencies over privately issued stablecoins to maintain trust in money, preserve financial stability and design next generation payments infrastructure that is faster, cheaper and secure.”

The RBI also argues that introducing stablecoins can create new channels for financial stability risks, particularly during periods of market stress, and that it’s “vital that jurisdictions carefully assess the attendant risks and determine policy responses appropriate to its financial system.”

The government of India indicated in its Economic Survey 2025-2026 that it was considering regulations for stablecoins, while the RBI advocated a more cautious approach to crypto. 

Central banks often shape the rules of money through policy and regulation, and the RBI will likely play a key role in how crypto is treated in India.

RBI says CBDCs are like stablecoins, but better

CBDCs are a hotly debated issue. Critics are concerned CBDCs could infringe on privacy and undermine the financial sector by allowing users to become direct customers of central banks, while advocates argue that CBDCs could improve payment efficiency and expand financial inclusion.

In its latest financial stability report, the RBI said CBDCs can achieve all the same benefits stablecoins offer, efficiency, programmability, and instant settlement, but with the credibility and safety of central bank money.

“The RBI maintains a cautious stance on crypto assets, including stablecoins, prioritising sovereign digital infrastructure to safeguard monetary sovereignty amid global shifts and preserve financial stability,” the bank said in the report.

Related: China to let banks pay interest on digital yuan wallets from January 2026

A range of financial institutions across the US, Europe, and Asia are moving into stablecoins for benefits such as faster, lower-cost transfers compared to traditional finance rails.

The interest has seen the market capitalization of the sector continue to grow, starting in 2025 at around $205 billion and ending the year at $307 billion, according to data aggregator DefiLlama.