April Empire State Manufacturing Index Indicates Slower Contraction

By Ed Frankl

Factories in New York State saw activity decline again this month after dropping steeply in March, as concerns rise about the economic outlook in the wake of President Trump's tariff policies.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Tuesday that its statewide manufacturing index rose 11.9 points but remained in negative territory at minus 8.1 in April. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expected a slightly weaker reading of minus 12.4.

Firms notably turned pessimistic about the outlook, with the index for future business conditions index falling to its second lowest reading in the more than 20-year history of the survey, the New York Fed said.

"After declining sharply last month, business activity continued to contract modestly in New York State ... Firms turned pessimistic about the outlook for the first time since 2022," said Richard Deitz of the New York Fed.

Survey responses were collected between April 2--the day of President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement--and April 9--when he pared back some of his so-called reciprocal tariffs.

Notably, input and selling price increases picked up by the fastest pace in more than two years, Deitz noted, climbing for a fourth-straight month. Input and selling price increases are expected to pick up, and supply availability is expected to worsen over the next six months, the survey said.

New orders fell modestly in April, shipments edged lower and inventories continued to expand, the New York Fed added.

Write to Ed Frankl at edward.frankl@wsj.com

By Robb M. Stewart

OTTAWA--Canadian manufacturing activity picked up for a fifth straight month in February, with sales of primary metals and chemical products leading gains.

Factory shipments increased 0.2% from the month before to a seasonally adjusted 72.94 billion Canadian dollars, the equivalent of about $52.56 billion--the highest level since September 2023, Statistics Canada said Tuesday.

The result was stronger than the data agency's advance estimate for monthly dip of 0.2%, following a downwardly revised 1.6% rise in sales in January.

Compared with a year earlier, manufacturing sales in February were 2.1% higher.

Sales in constant dollars were unchanged for the month at C$54.93 billion, an indication the strength in sales was buoyed by higher prices. The industrial product price index rose 0.4% for the month.

Write to Robb M. Stewart at robb.stewart@wsj.com

By Robb M. Stewart

OTTAWA--Canada's annual inflation rate eased in March despite the federal government's temporary tax break rolling off, with consumers paying less at the pumps and for travel tours and airfares.

The country's consumer price index rose 2.3% from a year earlier, Statistics Canada said Tuesday. The market was expecting the index to climb 2.7%, according to economists at TD Securities.

After coming in at or below the central bank's 2% target six months running, inflation in February picked up to 2.6%.

On a month-over-month basis, prices rose 0.3%, softer than the consensus forecast for an advance of 0.7%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, CPI was unchanged from the previous month.

The average of the Bank of Canada's preferred trimmed mean and weighted median measures for underlying inflation was little changed, easing only slightly to 2.85% on-year from an eight-moth high 2.9% in February.

Write to Robb M. Stewart at robb.stewart@wsj.com