Analyst Says Dogecoin Price Is Ready To Fly, Here’s Why

The European Commission’s proposal to expand the powers of the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) is raising concerns about the centralization of the bloc’s licensing regime, despite signaling deeper institutional ambitions for its capital markets structure.

On Thursday, the Commission published a package proposing to “direct supervisory competences” for key pieces of market infrastructure, including crypto-asset service providers (CASPs), trading venues and central counterparties to ESMA, Cointelegraph reported.

Concerningly, the ESMA’s jurisdiction would extend to both the supervision and licensing of all European crypto and financial technology (fintech) firms, potentially leading to slower licensing regimes and hindering startup development, according to Faustine Fleuret, head of public affairs at decentralized lending protocol Morpho.

“I am even more concerned that the proposal makes ESMA responsible for both the authorisation and the supervision of CASPs, not only the supervision,” she told Cointelegraph.

The proposal still requires approval from the European Parliament and the Council, which are currently under negotiation. 

If adopted, ESMA’s role in overseeing EU capital markets would more closely resemble the centralized framework of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, a concept first proposed by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde in 2023.

Related: Bank of America backs 1%–4% crypto allocation, opens door to Bitcoin ETFs

EU plan to centralize licensing under ESMA creates crypto and fintech slowdown concerns

The proposal to “centralize” this oversight under a single regulatory body seeks to address the differences in national supervisory practices and uneven licensing regimes, but risks slowing down overall crypto industry development, Elisenda Fabrega, general counsel at Brickken asset tokenization platform, told Cointelegraph.

“Ultimately, the effectiveness of this reform will depend less on its legal form and more on its institutional execution,” including ESMA’s operational capacity, independence and cooperation “channels” with member states, she said.

In a not-so-surprising turn of events, the bearish orientation of the Bitcoin price has continued into the month of December, suggesting that the premier cryptocurrency could end the year in the red. Interestingly, recent on-chain data has offered insights into the likely direction of Bitcoin based on the integrity of an important price level.

Active Market Participants’ Cost Basis At $82,000

In a December 5 post on the X platform, market analyst Burak Kesmeci shared an interesting outlook on the direction of the Bitcoin price. 

The analyst disclosed that whatever happens around the $82,000 mark could make or mar Bitcoin’s trajectory in the near term. To demonstrate why this price region is so important, Kesmeci pointed out that it appears to be the convergence point of two highly influential cost bases in Bitcoin’s history. 

Kesmeci revealed that the Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds have an average purchase cost of approximately $82,000. Because ETFs are one of Bitcoin’s strongest demand sources, tracking the values of their average cost-basis could serve as a good means to tell where the market stands institutionally.

The crypto pundit also referenced the Bitcoin True Market Mean metric, which monitors the cost at which active investors procured their holdings—except for mined or rarely-moved BTC. Notably, in the current market cycle, Bitcoin’s active participants mostly purchased their coins around a valuation of $82,000. 

What Happens If $82,000 Fails? 

Usually, when price slips beneath any major price support, there is, in turn, an increase in overall selling pressure, as buy-side liquidity is converted to bearish momentum via losses incurred by investors. Hence, in the scenario where $82,000 fails to hold, a wave of bearish pressure is expected to ensue, as Bitcoin’s active investors try to cut their losses. 

However, Kesmeci expects something even more specific to follow. According to historical data, whenever Bitcoin falls beneath its active market participant cost basis, it often falls further downwards, as though it is targeting its Realized Price.

At the moment, the Bitcoin Realized Price sits near $56,000 — a price level significantly beneath its investors’ average cost basis. Kesmeci therefore warned that a slip beneath $82,000 could precede Bitcoin’s sharp downturn towards $56,000.

This would represent an almost 40% decline from the current price point. As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $89,310, reflecting an over 3% dip in the past 24 hours. 

Bitcoin has seen a “complete reset” of sell pressure after dropping below $90,000, says new research.

Key points:

• Bitcoin long-term holders have reset their selling habits as BTC price action returns below $90,000.

• A derivative of the popular SOPR metric is now tapping its lowest levels since early 2024.

• Recent price moves have resulted in some classic knee-jerk trading decisions by short-term holders.

Bitcoin SOPR “Ratio” hits key 1.35 level

In one of its “Quicktake” blog posts Saturday, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant eyed two-year lows in a key Bitcoin hodl metric.

Bitcoin long-term holders (STHs) have effectively abandoned their BTC sales after fell to its lowest levels since April.

CryptoQuant reveals a major shift in the profitability of unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) created by the LTH cohort versus their speculative counterparts, short-term holders (STHs).

The labels “LTH” and “STH” refer to wallets hodling a given amount of BTC for more than or less than 155 days, respectively. 

Using an iteration of the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric, which measures the proportion of UTXOs in profit and loss, CryptoQuant confirms that it is now STHs responsible for the majority of in-profit transactions.

“The Bitcoin SOPR Ratio (LTH-SOPR / STH-SOPR) has dropped to 1.35, marking its lowest level since the beginning of 2024. This decline coincides with Bitcoin’s price correction to the $89.7K level,” contributor CryptoOnchain summarized.

Input Output, the engineering firm best known for building Cardano, has begun a sweeping restructuring that includes a name change and a move into technology sectors far beyond its blockchain origins.

The company said on December 5 that it will drop “Global” from its name and operate as Input Output Group. It plans to expand into quantum computing, digital identity, fintech, and healthcare.

Why is Cardano’s Engineering Firm Expanding Operations?

Charles Hoskinson, the company’s founder, said the redesign reflects how far the organization has evolved from its initial focus on blockchain protocol engineering.

He described the new phase as an effort to build a global technology group capable of addressing complex problems across fintech, privacy, artificial intelligence, and healthcare.

Hoskinson added that the firm will continue to support Cardano’s core development.

The shift mirrors a broader trend in the crypto industry as firms diversify into areas that blend distributed systems, data infrastructure, and machine intelligence.

A recent UN analysis estimates that rapid innovation could push the AI sector toward $5 trillion within a decade. That scale, the report said, will shape adjacent fields such as digital identity and quantum computing.

By adding these sectors to its portfolio, Input Output aims to expand its commercial pipeline and attract enterprise clients.

Notably, the company has already advanced its privacy technology work through Midnight. The blockchain is designed to support data protection and compliance for institutional users.

Meanwhile, the restructuring arrives at a difficult time for Cardano, which has struggled to keep pace with competitors such as Solana and Ethereum.

For context, Cardano hosts less than $50 million in stablecoin supply. On the other hand, rival ecosystems like Ethereum support hundreds of billions of these assets.

Considering this, Hoskinson argued that Cardano’s slower uptake stems from narrative challenges, not technical limits.

Input Output is trying to counter that gap through a new coalition with Cardano’s founding organizations. The effort aims to accelerate integrations for tier-one stablecoins and custody providers.

The firm hopes these additions will improve liquidity, deepen infrastructure, and strengthen Cardano’s appeal to developers and financial institutions.