AI Trade Fragmentation Weighing on SoftBank Shares — Market Talk

Investing.com – India stocks were lower after the close on Tuesday, as losses in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods, Healthcare and Consumer Durables sectors led shares lower.

At the close in NSE, the Nifty 50 lost 0.29%, while the BSE Sensex 30 index lost 0.37%.

The best performers of the session on the Nifty 50 were Bharat Electronics Ltd (NSE:BAJE), which rose 1.56% or 6.30 points to trade at 410.10 at the close. Meanwhile, Hero MotoCorp Ltd (NSE:HROM) added 1.50% or 90.00 points to end at 6,072.00 and Hindalco Industries Ltd. (NSE:HALC) was up 1.44% or 11.15 points to 785.80 in late trade.

The worst performers of the session were Adani Enterprises Ltd (NSE:ADEL), which fell 2.94% or 70.60 points to trade at 2,328.60 at the close. Tata Motors Ltd (NSE:TAMO) declined 1.59% or 5.70 points to end at 352.60 and Trent Ltd (NSE:TREN) was down 1.49% or 64.40 points to 4,246.50.

The top performers on the BSE Sensex 30 were State Bank Of India (BO:SBI) which rose 1.44% to 984.25, Tata Steel Ltd (BO:TISC) which was up 0.60% to settle at 166.30 and IndusInd Bank Ltd. (BO:INBK) which gained 0.54% to close at 840.45.

The worst performers were Tata Motors Ltd (BO:TAMO) which was down 1.55% to 352.70 in late trade, Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd (BO:PGRD) which lost 1.30% to settle at 272.80 and Infosys Ltd (BO:INFY) which was down 1.25% to 1,530.00 at the close.

Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones on the India National Stock Exchange by 1266 to 1209 and 48 ended unchanged; on the Bombay Stock Exchange, 1996 rose and 1978 declined, while 148 ended unchanged.

Shares in Hero MotoCorp Ltd (NSE:HROM) rose to 52-week highs; rising 1.50% or 90.00 to 6,072.00. Shares in Trent Ltd (NSE:TREN) fell to 52-week lows; falling 1.49% or 64.40 to 4,246.50. Shares in State Bank Of India (BO:SBI) rose to all time highs; gaining 1.44% or 13.95 to 984.25.

The India VIX, which measures the implied volatility of Nifty 50 options, was down 8.24% to 12.15.

Gold Futures for February delivery was down 0.13% or 5.30 to $4,164.70 a troy ounce. Elsewhere in commodities trading, Crude oil for delivery in January fell 0.48% or 0.28 to hit $58.64 a barrel, while the February Brent oil contract fell 0.38% or 0.24 to trade at $62.48 a barrel.

USD/INR was up 0.06% to 89.19, while EUR/INR rose 0.20% to 102.91.

The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0.09% at 99.98.

Investing.com -- The early-November wobble in equities may be fading faster than expected, according to Yardeni Research, which argues that the conditions that triggered the downturn are already shifting.

Yardeni notes that it had anticipated weakness as the Bull-Bear Ratio signaled “too many bulls,” a setup that often precedes a pullback. The question now is whether the drop has run its course.

“Could the pullback be over already? It might be if the Fed delivers a rate cut on December 10,” Yardeni wrote in a Monday note.

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But the backdrop changed quickly. New York Fed President John Williams offered a more dovish tone on Friday, followed by similar comments from other policymakers. As a result, the market’s implied odds of a December cut surged to 80.9%, providing what Yardeni calls the familiar “Fed Put.”

In turn, stocks bounced accordingly, with AI-linked names leading Monday’s advance. Alphabet rose 6.3%, while Nvidia gained 2%. Bitcoin also recovered from $81,180 on Friday morning back to $89,000 by Monday afternoon.

The dollar, meanwhile, has held steady near 100 on the DXY. Yardeni attributes this to robust net capital inflows, which reached $1.5 trillion over the past 12 months through September.

The market research firm pushes back against the popular view that foreign investors are retreating from U.S. assets, pointing to $492.7 billion in private foreign purchases of Treasuries over the past 12 months and record foreign holdings of $9.2 trillion during September.

Equity inflows have been even stronger. Yardeni flags that foreign private purchases of U.S. equities hit an unprecedented $646.8 billion over the past year.

“Over the past 12 months, foreign private purchases of U.S. equities outpaced those of U.S. Treasury notes and bonds,” Yardeni said.

Overall, Yardeni believes that the market’s direction largely depends on the Fed’s December call, but the flow data points to steady foreign interest rather than any meaningful pullback from U.S. assets.

Investing.com - The failure of Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide drug to help slow the progression of Alzheimer’s disease represents a "big missed opportunity to transform sentiment" around the stock, according to analysts at Kepler Cheuvreux.

In a note to clients, the analysts including David Evans said they previously thought that the treatment for the brain-wasting illness had "huge theoretical upside in the event" the trials proved to be successful, "combined with close to zero market expectations."

This presented a "good risk/reward despite the evidently high uncertainties and risks to the chances of the readout," they said, but added that "the outcome was a clear negative."

Still, the deep fall in Novo’s share price on Monday seemed to be "greatly excessive compared to what value had ever been included in [its] valuation for Alzheimer’s," the analysts flagged, joining a chorus of other observers who described the decline in the stock has overblown.

An Alzheimer drug had never represented more than 5% of Novo’s share price, the Kepler analysts said. As a result, any cuts to consensus forecasts for Novo results on the back of the failed Alzheimer trials is likely to be "minimal," they argued.

The comments come after Novo said the trials of an older version of its semaglutide drug, which had been closely-monitored as an indicator of a potentially expanding market for so-called GLP-1 medications beyond obesity, had come to an end without showing an ability to slow the cognitive decline in thousands of patients suffering from mild forms of Alzheimer’s.

A positive result could have been a boon for Novo, which has been grappling with intensifying competition in obesity and diabetes drugs, a burgeoning, multi-billion dollar segment the Danish group previously dominated. Although acknowledging such a result as a long-shot, Novo and its investors had been hoping the trial could offer another avenue of revenue growth for the company’s blockbuster Ozempic and Wegovy, which both contain semaglutide.

However, observers will not have to wait long for the next "very significant catalyst" for Novo, the Kepler analysts said. The potential U.S. approval for, and subsequent launch of, the firm’s weight-loss tablet oral semaglutide -- dubbed by the analysts as "Wegovy in a Pill" -- may be coming by the end of 2025, they said.

"This launch is greatly underestimated by consensus in our view, and is Novo’s key near-term chance to turn around the extremely low current market sentiment," the analysts said.