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By Teresa Rivas
The case for the artificial-intelligence trade is the technology is so revolutionary that eventually it will be well worth the trillions that have been invested to develop it.
But that argument means many investors don't bother to distinguish between AI-related companies with solid fundamentals and those on shakier ground.
In reality, the shares of most AI winners have traded on hopes for the far-flung future during this bull market, rather than the here, now, or near future, notes Trivariate Research President Adam Parker.
That's based on his work dating back to early 2023. As Parker details in a note Friday, his firm created three baskets of AI plays back then — 10 semiconductor stocks, 19 software, and 20 "other" companies, which included a mix of names like Amazon.com, Dell Technologies, and Snowflake. Those baskets were then further divided into companies with high, low, and negative free cash flow.
After tracking these stocks, Parker found that the market doesn't care about free cash flow. The stocks in the "other" group have a median FCF yield — free cash flow as a percentage of firm's market value — of 4.3%, well above the rest of the market. Meanwhile, semiconductor companies now have significantly less FCF than those in other categories, yielding a paltry 1.7%. And yet semiconductor stocks have outperformed, as the clear winning group since the White House shook markets with its widespread tariffs announcement back in April.
In other words, AI believers aren't paying attention to free cash flow yield, a valuable metric to gauge a company's current performance.
"Semiconductors with low free cash flow have strongly outperformed those with high free cash flow, and Software with negative free cash flow (albeit a small sample size) have beaten those with positive free cash flow," Parker writes. "Among other AI companies, high- and low-free-cash-flow stocks have performed similarly."
Even near-term revenue growth forecasts haven't had much impact on stocks so far — even though those can be predictive for a company's profit margins and expected growth. Parker looked at 12-month forward forecasted revenue growth versus FCF yield in each AI bucket, and, again, didn't see any aggregate relationship.
"We can only conclude that movements in AI stocks are driven by perceptions far out in the future, not by current capital spending and its impact on FCF, or the next year's revenue growth," he writes.
One might expect that this would be the case during the good times, and that investors would want the comfort of more well-capitalized companies with stronger near-term outlooks when things go sideways. But that hasn't proved to be the case, either: Shares of solid companies with strong revenue growth outlooks or higher FCF yields have struggled this year, in many cases just as much or more than those with weaker fundamentals.
Across the board, all stocks in Parker's analysis — with the sole exception of MongoDB — are down from their 2025 highs, ranging from 3.4% for Zoom Communications to nearly 60% for C3.ai.
It is true that the four companies with negative FCF yields — Oracle, Alpha & Omega Semiconductor, SoundHound AI, and C3.ai — are all off between 36% and 59% from their 2025 highs. Yet the three companies with double-digit FCF yields — Concentrix, Sprinklr, and Five9 — fared nearly as badly as a group.
In short, when it comes to the AI stocks that have powered this rally, the question isn't what have you done for me lately, but what will you do for me...eventually?
Write to Teresa Rivas at teresa.rivas@barrons.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
By Abby Schultz
No one should turn away free money, especially parents struggling to get by, let alone save for their children's future, but Trump accounts — seeded for newborns with $1,000 by the federal government — may not be the best option.
There are several reasons that parents and guardians may want to consider other vehicles. One is that Trump accounts become traditional individual retirement accounts when a child turns 18. That means any earnings from a Trump account will be included in the child's total unearned income and taxed for the year if withdrawn before he or she turns age 59 1/2 .
Those withdrawals may also be subject to a 10% penalty unless the funds are used for higher education. A beneficiary can also use $10,000 toward a first-time home without penalty.
"I would suggest parents take this free money if it's available to them, but then I wouldn't focus much of my energy on saving more into that account unless you have fully exhausted all of your other savings options," said Kate Ashford, a wealth management specialist at NerdWallet, in an interview.
Other options include Roth IRAs, 529 education plans, and custodial accounts such as UGMA and UTMA. Each has pluses and minuses but generally offer more flexibility, and some tax advantages, relative to the Trump accounts.
Among concerns that experts have with Trump accounts is a $5,000 cap for contributions outside of gifts provided by the government (including state and local governments), philanthropists, and charitable groups.
For families who may not have the means to save, the cap won't be a deterrent. "But for people who are trying to save a lot toward college...that is a cap to keep in mind," Ashford said.
Trump accounts were created in July through federal tax and spending legislation, and can be set up and funded beginning on July 4, 2026, according to the government, which released guidelines on Tuesday. U.S. citizens who were born this year through 2028 will each receive $1,000 in their accounts, once they are activated. But parents and guardians can open a Trump account for any child under age 18.
Funds in these accounts grow tax-free, but contributions from family and friends are made with after-tax dollars. Contributions into custodial accounts — including UGMA and UTMA accounts as well as Roth IRAs — also are made with after-tax contributions, but the majority of states allow for varying levels of tax deductions for 529 plans.
An advantage of 529 plans is that withdrawals are entirely tax-free if spent on education, Ashford says. That can include higher education, but also K-12 tuition or trade school.
In addition, the parent or guardian is in control of the account, while a Trump account will be controlled by the child after they are 18, meaning that it may count "significantly against their ability to access financial aid," said Adam Frank, head of wealth planning and advice at J.P. Morgan Wealth Management, in an interview.
Another advantage of a 529 plan is that any unused funds can be transferred to someone else, which isn't the case with a Trump account, according to Dianne Mehany, EY Private's national tax leader.
Dell Technologies founder and CEO Michael Dell and his wife, Susan, announced on Tuesday that they would put $250 in the accounts of 25 million children ages 10 and under born in 2024 or earlier who live in areas with a median family income of $150,000 or less. Their gift — from various charitable vehicles — amounts to $6.25 billion.
Contributions by philanthropists such as the Dells, by charitable organizations, and by state and local governments don't count toward the $5,000 annual cap. Similarly, the $1,000 from the federal government also doesn't count toward the cap.
The fact gifts such as these can exceed the $5,000 limit is a clear benefit in encouraging families to save — whether the money is used for education, homeownership, or starting a business, Frank says.
"But compared with a custodial account — a plain-vanilla UTMA or UGMA — these accounts are a little bit more restrictive," he says. "It isn't clear that this is going to be a better place for parents to contribute money."
One reason that Frank prefers custodial accounts is they allow the parent or guardian to invest the assets in a range of financial choices, not just a low-cost equity index fund or exchange-traded fund, as the Trump accounts require.
Another benefit is flexibility: "That money can be pulled out and used for anything," Ashford says.
One plus of Trump accounts is that employers can contribute to them, with the first $2,500 per employee a year excluded from the employee's income.
But Mehany notes that the $2,500 employer cap is per employee, so if a worker has two children, they would have to split the contribution between them. Also, although the contribution would be tax-free to the employee and their child, the distributed funds are ultimately taxable to the beneficiary, Mehany said in an email.
Write to Abby Schultz at abby.schultz@barrons.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
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