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Peter Brandt flags two major BTC downside targets

Bitcoin just picked up a warning from trading legend Peter Brandt, whose latest chart calls for a drop to $81,852 or even $59,403 per BTC.

• BTC to $59,000. Peter Brandt’s newest Bitcoin chart outlines a weekly five-leg climb followed by a curve break.

Peter Brandt's new Bitcoin chart gives a straight message that bulls will not like. His weekly setup shows a clear five-leg climb, a broken curve and two landing zones that are far below today's price. The first one sits near $81,852, and the deeper one is around $59,403 per BTC.

The trader with 50-year experience in markets does not see them as panic markers, but as the natural clean-up after a run that stretched too far while traders priced in an endless policy pivot.

• Bigger picture. Brandt compares late 2025 to late 2021 in reverse: prices falling while traditional indexes like the S&P 500 remain stable.

The bigger picture helps explain why Brandt's targets do not look extreme. It is like late 2025 is the same as late 2021, just the opposite. Prices are dropping, but the major indexes like S&P 500 are still doing okay. Four years ago, the market was getting ready for quantitative tightening, now it is the easing narrative.

The main issue is that a lot of assets already trade as if rates are going to drop quickly. Crypto followed the same logic, ignoring that future cuts may already be in the chart.

Ripple's $500 million share sale secures $40 billion valuation 

Wall Street's $500 million move into Ripple at a $40 billion valuation is met with scrutiny, putting the company's real value and XRP's role at the forefront.

• Institutional capital. Ripple’s November share sale reached $500 million.

According to Bloomberg's latest reporting, Ripple's November share sale landed exactly where the company has been trying to position itself for years: at the center of institutional capital that wants crypto exposure but insists on structured protection. 

The round brought in $500 million, setting Ripple’s valuation at $40 billion, the highest private valuation recorded for a digital asset firm in this cycle.

As the news circulated, XRP traded higher inside the day, approaching $2.09. This increase aligned with the market strength rather than being a standalone reaction, but it showed that traders are tracking the news.

• Bayback option. If Ripple itself initiates the repurchase, the return rises to 25% annually.

The deal's notable aspect was not the investors (Citadel Securities, Fortress, Marshall Wace, Brevan Howard, Galaxy and Pantera), but the terms. According to Bloomberg, investors secured the right to sell their shares back to Ripple after three or four years, earning a 10% annual return. 

If Ripple initiates a repurchase, the return increases to 25% annually. A liquidation-preference clause was also added, ensuring that the new money sits at the front of the line in the event of a sale or restructuring.

Bitcoin and XRP gain Wall Street traction through Bitwise index launch

Bitcoin and XRP expanded their Wall Street footprint as part of Bitwise's index listing on NYSE Arca amid $935 million ETF inflows.

• Almost $1 billion. Bitwise’s 10 Crypto Index Fund (BITW) began trading on NYSE Arca, expanding Bitcoin and XRP’s visibility in traditional markets.

Bitcoin and XRP got some more attention from Wall Street today. The 10 Crypto Index Fund by Bitwise finally got the green light from regulators and started trading on NYSE Arca, which means these two popular assets are becoming more connected to traditional investments. 

Journalist Eleanor Terrett says it has been a tough go for the company, with the SEC causing delays that put the product on hold for a while. 

• 10 assets. Current allocation: Bitcoin 74.34%, Ethereum 15.55%, XRP 5.17%.

As Bitwise explains, BITW keeps track of 10 major assets, which it divides up based on market capitalization and rebalances every month. 

The latest composition makes it clear where market weight stands: Bitcoin takes the lead with 74.34%, Ethereum follows with 15.55% and XRP takes third place at 5.17%.

In the meantime, XRP's ecosystem is already moving full steam ahead on its own. On Dec. 8, spot ETF products linked to the token saw $38.04 million in daily net inflows, bringing the total to $935.39 million. This also increased the total net assets to $923.71 million, with the price trading near $2.09. 

Shiba Inu whale spike points to rising volatility

SHIB could be on track to experience more volatility following an uptick in whale activity. 

• Whales awakening. Santiment reports the highest number of large SHIB transfers since June 6.

Shiba Inu , one of the leading meme cryptocurrencies, has experienced a lot of activity from "whales." Specifically, there have been more large transfers than on any day since June 6, according to the data provided by analytics platform Santiment. 

At the same time, the total amount of Shiba Inu held on exchanges increased by 1.06 trillion SHIB. This essentially means that a lot of coins are now available on exchanges (possibly for selling). 

• High volatility. Analysts warn this combination typically precedes heightened short-term volatility.

Due to these factors, the token is likely to experience more volatility in the next few days, Santiment warns. 

According to CoinGecko data, SHIB is up by nearly 6% over the past 24 hours. The token's market cap is currently sitting just below the $5 billion mark. As reported by U.Today, a moderate relief rally could be in the cards for the popular meme coin, but traders should not anticipate a sharp price spike. 

Shiba Inu sees major eight-trillion-token outflow

Shiba Inu's market structure is rapidly changing as the asset starts regaining what has been lost in the last few months.

• Exchange outflows. More than 8 trillion SHIB exited centralized exchanges in 24 hours, marking one of the largest single-day outflows in months.

More than eight trillion SHIB left centralized exchanges in a 24-hour period, making it one of the biggest single-day exchange outflow events in months. 

When that volume of liquidity leaves exchanges, it typically indicates one of two things: either large holders' strategic repositioning, or accumulation. The first option is much more likely given SHIB's recent actions.

Nevertheless, rather than continuing to bleed out, the price is stabilizing above local lows, creating a short-term consolidation range. That alone indicates that the negative is being mitigated.

• Bullish sign. Large holders typically move tokens off exchanges to reduce sell-side risk when planning to hold.

When you combine this with the eight trillion SHIB outflow, the story becomes more apparent. In order to lessen sell-side pressure, large holders withdraw liquidity from exchanges when they intend to hold, stake, deploy into DeFi, or just take tokens out of circulation.

A partner at the investment arm of Itaú Unibanco, the largest private bank in Latin America, is urging investors to allocate a portion of their portfolios to bitcoin as a "dual opportunity" for asset diversification and currency protection. 

In a recent research note, Renato Eid, Itaú Asset Management’s head of beta strategies and responsible investment, recommended a "calibrated" allocation of 1% to 3% in the cryptocurrency. He also warned against trying to time the market and emphasized maintaining a long-term horizon.

"The idea is not to make crypto assets the core of the portfolio, but rather to integrate them as a complementary component," Eid wrote. "The goal is to capture returns uncorrelated with domestic cycles, partially protect against currency devaluation, and add potential for long-term appreciation."

The column explicitly references its own BITI11 fund, a Brazilian-listed product that offers bitcoin exposure through an ETF wrapper. The ETF began trading on Brazil’s B3 exchange in 2022 as part of a partnership between Galaxy Digital and Itaú Asset. The ETF has assets under management worth about $115.6 million, per TradingView data. 

"Maintaining and/or adding BITI11 to your portfolio represents a dual opportunity — international diversification + currency protection/global store of value," Eid wrote. 

Eid’s pitch leans heavily on a Brazil-specific problem: currency swings. Brazil’s real slid to record lows in December 2024 — Reuters reported it fell as low as 6.30 per U.S. dollar during the month — which bolsters the argument for holding some globally priced assets as partial protection against FX shocks. The currency is currently trading at about 5.42 per U.S. dollar.

The note also fits with Itaú’s recent crypto buildout. Itaú Unibanco launched bitcoin and ether trading inside íon in December 2023, with the bank acting as custodian. Brazil's central bank recently released new rules for domestic digital asset firms, mandating they register with the central bank to operate legally in the country, The Block previously reported. 

Bank of America recently recommended a similar 1-4% crypto allocation for its wealth clients, bringing the TradFi giant in line with Wall Street's growing acceptance of crypto. 

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

© 2025 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

In a recent social media post, Blockstream CEO Adam Back has dismissed quantum FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) around Bitcoin, exposing that some fearmongering stems from the lack of understanding of how Bitcoin actually secures its network.

Writer Josh Otten has argued that a quantum computer could use Shor’s algorithm to break "the encryption guarding Bitcoin’s earliest wallets."

"This would expose the private keys to Satoshi Nakamoto’s fortune, likely crashing the market and destroying trust in the whole system," he predicted. 

According to Otten, this is the likeliest scenario that could push the price of Bitcoin to nearly zero in virtually no time. 

This implies that the private keys to early Bitcoin addresses could be exposed. 

However, Bitcoin wallets rely on elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) for signing transactions, specifically the secp256k1 curve.

Private keys are used to sign transactions while public keys and addresses allow verification. This is not the same as encrypting data. Encryption implies that data is hidden and can be decrypted. Bitcoin's security model is based on signatures that prove ownership without exposing the private key.

Quantum computers threaten the signing algorithm, not encryption per se.

A sufficiently powerful quantum computer could theoretically use Shor’s algorithm to derive private keys from public keys. However, addresses don’t reveal public keys until you spend from them. Early Bitcoin wallets that have never spent their coins haven’t revealed their public keys. 

Assessing quantum threat

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has warned that the quantum threat is real and measurable. 

Solana's Anatoly Yakovenko has estimated that there is a 50/50 chance that enough quantum power could exist to threaten Bitcoin’s cryptography within the next five years. 

However, Back has explicitly stated that Bitcoin is unlikely to face a meaningful quantum computing threat for 20–40 years (if ever). 

Even the most advanced systems today have high qubit counts but lack the error‑corrected logical qubits needed to run algorithms like Shor’s at scale. Moreover, post-quantum cryptography already exists. 

At first glance, XRP's on-chain payment volume declining to almost zero levels appears concerning, but the background is more important than the headline. At the moment, timing market mechanics and the source of liquidity–or lack thereof–are more important than XRP's structural flaws.

XRP is still moving down

After failing to recover important moving averages, XRP is still stuck in a wider declining channel on the price side. With the 200-day serving as far-off overhead resistance, the asset stays below its 50-day and 100-day averages. Instead of being impulsive, this keeps price action constrained and responsive. Chart by TradingView">

Momentum indicators show this reluctance: the RSI is in the low 40s, not oversold, but obviously weak. The price is weak, but not broken, to put it briefly.

The XRP Ledger payments volume chart, which displays activity collapsing toward zero, is the more perplexing signal. This is the point at which many people make incorrect assumptions. The decline does not indicate that XRP use has abruptly stopped or that the network is dead. 

The weekend effect associated with institutional and ETF-related activity is the primary driver. The recent volume expansions of XRP have been significantly impacted by the U.S.-based engagement, especially via regulated platforms like Coinbase. It's important because in the U.S. the way that markets function varies throughout the week.

Liquidity is suspended

Over the weekend, ETF-related flows, institutional desks, and numerous compliance-focused participants essentially stopped or reduced their activity. On-chain payment volume can quickly dry up once those players leave, particularly if retail isn't making up for it. This dynamic explains why the volume of payments falls, but the price does not. Liquidity has been suspended, not eliminated.

Similar declines have historically happened during times when institutional demand momentarily vanished, only to sharply reappear after traditional markets reopened. If ETF-related flows and U-return during weekday sessions, what should investors anticipate?

A debate broke out on social media on Saturday about the potential effects of a quantum computer hacking Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin stash and then dumping those coins onto the market.

The debate began when YouTuber Josh Otten shared a price chart of BTC crashing to $3.00 and said that this could happen if a sufficiently powerful quantum computer emerges and steals pseudonymous Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto’s 1 million BTC and sells them.

“Many OGs would buy the flash crash. The Bitcoin network would survive; most coins are not immediately vulnerable,” long-term Bitcoin holder Willy Woo said.

Experts are increasingly signaling a potential crypto bull run in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, driven by a convergence of macroeconomic factors.

Analysts suggest Bitcoin could surge between $300,000 and $600,000 if these catalysts materialize.

Five Macro Trends Fueling a Potential Rally in Q1 2026

A combination of five key trends is creating what analysts describe as a “perfect storm” for digital assets.

1. Fed Balance Sheet Pause Removes Headwind

The Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT), which drained liquidity throughout 2025, ended recently.

Simply halting the liquidity drain is historically bullish for risk assets. Data from previous cycles suggest Bitcoin can rally up to 40% when central banks stop contracting their balance sheets.

Analyst Benjamin Cowen indicated that early 2026 could be the time when markets begin to feel the impact of the Fed ending its QT.

2. Rate Cuts Could Return

The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates, with its commentary and Goldman Sachs forecasts indicating interest rate cuts could resume in 2026, potentially bringing rates down to 3–3.25%.

Lower rates typically increase liquidity and boost appetite for speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies.

3. Improved Short-End Liquidity

Increased Treasury bill purchases or other support at the short end of the yield curve could ease funding pressures and reduce short-term rates. The Fed says it will start technical buying of Treasury bills to manage market liquidity.

The Fed periodically comes in during short-term funding markets amid instances of liquidity imbalances. These imbalances manifest in the overnight repo market, where banks borrow cash in exchange for Treasuries.

Recently, multiple indicators point to a rising short-term funding pressure, including:

• Money market funds sitting on elevated levels of cash,
• T-bill issuance tightening as the Treasury shifted its borrowing mix, and
• Increasing seasonal demand for liquidity.

The Fed initiated a controlled purchase plan of Treasury bills to prevent short-term interest rates from deviating from the target Federal Funds Rate. These are the shortest-maturity government securities, typically ranging from a few weeks to one year in duration.

While not a classic QE move, this measure could still serve as a significant liquidity tailwind for crypto markets.

For Q1 2026, the broader implications for risk assets, such as crypto and equities, are generally positive but moderate, stemming from a shift in Fed policy toward maintaining or gradually expanding liquidity.

4. Political Incentives Favor Stability

With US midterm elections scheduled for November 2026, policymakers are likely to favor market stability over disruption.

This environment reduces the risk of sudden regulatory shocks and enhances investor confidence in risk assets.

5. The Employment “Paradox”

Weakening labor market data, such as soft employment or modest layoffs, often triggers dovish Fed responses.

Softer labor conditions increase pressure on the Fed to ease policy, indirectly creating more liquidity and favorable conditions for cryptocurrencies.

Expert Outlook Suggests Bullish Sentiment Growing

Industry observers are aligning with the macro view. Alice Liu, Head of Research at CoinMarketCap, forecasts a crypto market comeback in February and March 2026, citing a combination of positive macro indicators.

Some analysts are even more optimistic. Crypto commentator Vibes predicts Bitcoin could reach $300,000 to $600,000 in Q1 2026. This reflects extreme bullish sentiment amid improving liquidity and easing macro conditions.

Currently, market participation remains muted. Bitcoin open interest has declined, reflecting cautious trader sentiment.

However, if these macroeconomic tailwinds materialize, consolidation could quickly give way to a significant surge, setting the stage for a historic start to 2026 in the crypto markets.