A Look Back at Specialty Retail Stocks’ Q3 Earnings: Sportsman's Warehouse (NASDAQ:SPWH) Vs The Rest Of The Pack

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Academy

-0.63%

Sportsman's Warehouse

-2.84%

Ulta Beauty

+2.58%

Dick's Sporting Goods

-1.75%

Sally Beauty Holdings

+0.66%

As the Q3 earnings season comes to a close, it’s time to take stock of this quarter’s best and worst performers in the specialty retail industry, including Sportsman's Warehouse and its peers.

Some retailers try to sell everything under the sun, while others—appropriately called Specialty Retailers—focus on selling a narrow category and aiming to be exceptional at it. Whether it’s eyeglasses, sporting goods, or beauty and cosmetics, these stores win with depth of product in their category as well as in-store expertise and guidance for shoppers who need it. E-commerce competition exists and waning retail foot traffic impacts these retailers, but the magnitude of the headwinds depends on what they sell and what extra value they provide in their stores.

The 9 specialty retail stocks we track reported a mixed Q3. As a group, revenues missed analysts’ consensus estimates by 2.7%.

Thankfully, share prices of the companies have been resilient as they are up 5.3% on average since the latest earnings results.

Sportsman's Warehouse

A go-to destination for individuals passionate about hunting, fishing, camping, hiking, shooting sports, and more, Sportsman's Warehouse is an American specialty retailer offering a diverse range of active gear, equipment, and apparel.

Sportsman's Warehouse reported revenues of $331.3 million, up 2.2% year on year. This print was in line with analysts’ expectations, but overall, it was a slower quarter for the company with full-year EBITDA guidance missing analysts’ expectations significantly.

“This quarter we delivered our third consecutive period of positive same-store sales growth, driven by strong performance in our hunting, fishing, firearms, and personal protection categories, while continuing to gain share in a highly promotional and challenging retail environment,” said Paul Stone, Chief Executive Officer of Sportsman’s Warehouse.

The stock is down 41.8% since reporting and currently trades at $1.42.

Read our full report on Sportsman's Warehouse here, it’s free.

Best Q3: Ulta

Offering high-end prestige brands as well as lower-priced, mass-market ones, Ulta Beauty is an American retailer that sells makeup, skincare, haircare, and fragrance products.

Ulta reported revenues of $2.86 billion, up 12.9% year on year, outperforming analysts’ expectations by 5.2%. The business had an exceptional quarter with an impressive beat of analysts’ EBITDA estimates and a solid beat of analysts’ revenue estimates.

Ulta achieved the biggest analyst estimates beat among its peers. The market seems happy with the results as the stock is up 24% since reporting. It currently trades at $664.70.

Weakest Q3: Dick's

Started as a hunting supply store, Dick’s Sporting Goods is a retailer that sells merchandise for traditional sports as well as for fitness and outdoor activities.

Dick's reported revenues of $4.17 billion, up 36.3% year on year, falling short of analysts’ expectations by 10.2%. It was a disappointing quarter as it posted full-year revenue guidance missing analysts’ expectations significantly and a significant miss of analysts’ revenue estimates.

Dick's delivered the fastest revenue growth but had the weakest full-year guidance update in the group. Interestingly, the stock is up 4.2% since the results and currently trades at $214.95.

Read our full analysis of Dick’s results here.

Academy Sports

Founded in 1938 as a tire shop before expanding into fishing equipment, Academy Sports & Outdoor sells a broad selection of sporting goods but is still known for its outdoor activity merchandise.

Academy Sports reported revenues of $1.38 billion, up 3% year on year. This number missed analysts’ expectations by 1.3%. Zooming out, it was a satisfactory quarter as it also logged an impressive beat of analysts’ gross margin estimates but a slight miss of analysts’ revenue estimates.

Academy Sports achieved the highest full-year guidance raise among its peers. The stock is up 19% since reporting and currently trades at $58.15.

Read our full, actionable report on Academy Sports here, it’s free.

Sally Beauty

Catering to both everyday consumers as well as salon professionals, Sally Beauty is a retailer that sells salon-quality beauty products such as makeup and haircare products.

Sally Beauty reported revenues of $947.1 million, up 1.3% year on year. This print beat analysts’ expectations by 1.6%. It was a very strong quarter as it also logged a solid beat of analysts’ EBITDA and EPS estimates.

The stock is up 5.7% since reporting and currently trades at $15.51.

Read our full, actionable report on Sally Beauty here, it’s free.

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Academy Sports (ASO) Stock Trades Up, Here Is Why

Stock Story

Academy

-0.63%

What Happened?

Shares of sporting goods retailer Academy Sports & Outdoor jumped 3.2% in the afternoon session after Morgan Stanley raised its price target on the stock to $55 from $52. The firm, however, kept its "Equal-Weight" rating on the shares.

This move followed a similar action from the previous day when Truist Securities also lifted its price target on the company to $59 from $57, while maintaining a "Hold" rating. The adjustments came as Morgan Stanley noted that secular growth areas like sporting goods were well-positioned to outperform in 2026. The series of price target increases from analysts suggested a more positive outlook on the stock's potential value, even without formal rating upgrades.

After the initial pop the shares cooled down to $58.08, up 3.4% from previous close.

What Is The Market Telling Us

Academy Sports’s shares are very volatile and have had 20 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.

The previous big move we wrote about was 10 days ago when the stock gained 5.6% on the news that the White House announced a one-year delay on planned tariff hikes for many home goods, including furniture and cabinets.

The decision kept the current 25% tariff rate in place, averting a scheduled increase to as high as 50% for items like kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities that was set to take effect on New Year's Day. This move provided significant relief for retailers, as higher tariffs typically lead to increased costs. Companies would have faced the difficult choice of absorbing the extra expense, which hurts profitability, or passing it on to customers through higher prices, which could reduce sales. The news was met with investor optimism, sparking a rally in the sector.

Academy Sports is up 11.4% since the beginning of the year, and at $58.08 per share, it is trading close to its 52-week high of $58.51 from January 2026. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Academy Sports’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $2,618.

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Dj Ulta Beauty Price Target Raised To $750.00/Share From $640.00 By Morgan Stanley

Reuters

Ulta Beauty

+2.58%

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Dj Academy Sports & Outdoors Price Target Raised To $55.00/Share From $52.00 By Morgan Stanley

Reuters

Academy

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Morgan Stanley names 3 highest conviction ideas in retail for 2026

Investing.com

Meta Platforms

-2.95%

Advanced Micro Devices

Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley has identified its top retail ideas for 2026, highlighting a divided landscape marked by scarce organic growth and the increasing importance of scale.

Dick’s Sporting Goods, AutoZone, and Wayfair are the top ideas.

In its 2026 outlook, Morgan Stanley stated that investors should “navigate an uneven backdrop” by focusing on two themes: “big getting bigger” and “high risk/high reward names via housing and ‘idio’ stories.”

Morgan Stanley analysts, led by Simeon Gutman, said their “highest conviction ideas for 2026 center around ’expensive leadership’ and ’uncomfortable opportunities’ where sentiment is overly cautious.

The analysts named Dick’s Sporting Goods as their top pick, saying it fits both the leadership and idiosyncratic frameworks.

According to Morgan Stanley, DKS “is not expensive, and has embedded EPS accretion optionality from FL.”

The firm also pointed to strong positioning in the sporting goods category, which it views as one of 2026’s most attractive growth areas.

AutoZone was highlighted as “a proven leader with durable share gains and pricing power,” benefiting from structural advantages that make market-share leaders more resilient in a muted demand environment.

Morgan Stanley’s third idea is Wayfair, described as “a higher beta housing play with operating leverage to an accelerating demand upturn.”

The analysts see improving housing-related activity as a potential catalyst, even if the timing of a broader recovery remains uncertain.

The firm reiterated that organic growth across most retail categories remains difficult, but said secular growth areas such as sporting goods and beauty are well-positioned to outperform in 2026.

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