3 Reasons RBC Has Explosive Upside Potential

Investing.com -- Shares of Ascendis Pharma (NASDAQ:ASND) rose as much as 8.5% to a new high.

On January 20th RBC Capital updated its model based on new guidance from the company, raising its price target to $250 from $245.

According to RBC Capital, Ascendis Pharma outlined key goals for 2026 during a meeting with the firm. The company expects launch momentum for its Yorvipath drug to continue steadily throughout 2026 with no slowdown in patient additions.

Ascendis noted that the U.S. market remains largely underpenetrated, with 5,300 unique patients starting treatment versus a total addressable market of 70,000-90,000 patients. The company reported that the discontinuation rate for Yorvipath remains low.

The European opportunity is described as very meaningful, though the fragmented payer system requires time and discipline. Management indicated that the European total addressable market is significantly larger at 150,000-200,000 patients compared to 70,000-90,000 in the U.S. Ultimately, Ascendis believes revenue split may reach 60:40 U.S. to ex-U.S.

Regarding its next-generation weekly PTH treatment, Ascendis stated that Yorvipath will remain the gold standard during the titration phase, but 35-40% of patients, primarily stable ones, might choose a weekly option during the maintenance phase. The company has developed a novel TransCon technology that minimizes peak-to-trough excursion and is planning an expedited clinical development.

For its CNP product, Ascendis has a PDUFA date at the end of February. The company highlighted benefits beyond linear growth, particularly on arm span with GH combination.

On financial projections, Ascendis reiterated €500 million in operating cash flow for 2026 and over €5 billion in top-line revenue by 2030, compared to consensus estimates of approximately €3.5 billion. The company expects Yorvipath to ultimately be a €5-8 billion drug at peak.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

Investing.com -- Venture Global stock surged 9% Thursday morning after the company announced a favorable arbitration ruling in its dispute with Repsol LNG Holding, S.A.

The International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) International Court of Arbitration issued a final award on January 21, 2026, finding that Venture Global’s subsidiary had acted as a "Reasonable and Prudent Operator" when declaring commercial operations date (COD) on April 15, 2025. The tribunal denied all of Repsol’s claims and awarded fees to Venture Global Calcasieu Pass, LLC (VGCP).

The arbitration was related to LNG sales from the Calcasieu Project under a long-term sales and purchase agreement between the companies. This marks another legal victory for Venture Global, which stated that multiple proceedings have now affirmed the company has "fully honored the clear and mutually agreed-upon terms of its long-term contracts without exception."

Analysts from RBC Capital Markets view the decision positively, noting that the arbitrations have represented a significant overhang on the stock. "We view the decision positively for VG and believe the announcement should drive share price outperformance tomorrow given the arbitrations have represented a significant stock overhang," RBC analysts including Elvira Scotto wrote in a note.

The ruling appears to have removed investor uncertainty surrounding the company’s contractual disputes, contributing to today’s strong share price performance.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

Investing.com -- Central Asia Metals plc was downgraded to “sector perform” from “outperform” rating by RBC Capital Markets on Thursday, with the price target cut to 200p from 220p, citing limited re-rating potential as merger and acquisition opportunities narrow and organic growth remains limited, sending shares down over 4%.

RBC said the downgrade follows updated forecasts after fourth-quarter production results and 2026 guidance. 

The brokerage lowered its valuation multiples by 10%, setting its base case at 0.8x price-to-net asset value and 4.0x EV/EBITDA, reflecting what it described as diminishing M&A opportunities and a lack of near-term growth drivers.

The brokerage said Central Asia Metals has historically offered defensive exposure to base metals due to its low-cost operations and strong free cash flow generation. 

RBC said that characteristic now limits upside as copper prices trade near record levels and equities with higher operational leverage have seen stronger valuation expansion.

RBC noted that management has pursued growth through acquisitions for several years but has not completed a material transaction since acquiring the Sasa zinc and lead mine in 2017. 

The brokerage said copper prices are up about 35% since the company’s unsuccessful bid for New World Resources last year, while junior copper developers are trading above historical valuation levels, reducing the scope for accretive deals.

The analysts said Central Asia Metals now trades at a 47% discount to intermediate copper producers, compared with a five-year historical average discount of 13%. 

RBC attributed the wider gap to increased investor skepticism around execution of M&A and a flat to declining long-term production profile in the absence of acquisitions.

RBC expects 2026 to be a transitional year for the company. The brokerage forecast copper production at the Kounrad operation at 12.5 kilotonnes in 2026, down 6% year over year, as the mine moves past peak output. 

Zinc and lead production at Sasa is expected to rise about 2% year over year as operations recover from orebody variability and changes in mining methods.

The brokerage said updated estimates reduce average 2025–27 EBITDA by 1.3% and earnings per share by 1.8%. RBC said the revised price target of 200p implies a 2% total return from the prior market close of 209.50p.

Investing.com -- Admiral Group Plc was downgraded to “sector perform” from “outperform” by RBC Capital Markets, with the price target cut to 3,100p from 3,600p, as changes to dividend funding and revised earnings forecasts weighed on the outlook, in a note dated Thursday. 

RBC said the revision reflects a change in how Admiral plans to fund its employee share scheme. Instead of issuing new shares, the company will buy shares in the market, which reduces capital available for special dividends. 

As a result, RBC lowered its assumptions for special dividend payments. The broker said this change reduces the total stated payout ratio to the mid-80% range from the low-90% range and lowers total dividend per share by about 10% before any changes to earnings. 

RBC modelled costs of £40 million in the second half of 2025, £80 million in 2026 and £94 million in 2027 related to the share purchases, compared with a FY24 dividend declared of £588 million.

RBC also revised its earnings forecasts, primarily reflecting a more cautious view on UK motor insurance. The broker cut earnings per share estimates by 1% for FY25E and by 4% for both FY26E and FY27E. 

These reductions are in addition to earlier cuts made in mid-December. Lower earnings and reduced special dividends led RBC to cut total dividend per share forecasts by 3% for FY25E, 12% for FY26E and 14% for FY27E.

The revised forecasts place RBC below market expectations. The broker said its FY26E and FY27E EPS estimates are 8% and 11% below Visible Alpha consensus, respectively, while its dividend forecasts are 13% and 16% below consensus for those years. 

RBC now forecasts a 2% compound annual decline in EPS from FY25 to FY27, citing slower release of earnings from higher-margin years alongside the timing of any improvement in pricing.

RBC lowered its valuation multiple to 13x forward earnings from 15x, compared with a long-run average of about 17x. The new price target of 3,100p implies an unchanged target dividend yield of about 6%, which RBC said is in line with Admiral’s long-run average. 

Admiral shares were trading at about 2,948p at the time of the report, with a dividend yield of 7.2%, based on RBC data.

The broker said that while there are early signs of easing competitive conditions in UK motor insurance, these are not expected to translate quickly into earnings. 

RBC said sustained outperformance would likely require clearer evidence of a cyclical turn and a return to material EPS growth. 

Investing.com -- Admiral Group Plc was downgraded to “sector perform” from “outperform” by RBC Capital Markets, with the price target cut to 3,100p from 3,600p, as changes to dividend funding and revised earnings forecasts weighed on the outlook, in a note dated Thursday. 

RBC said the revision reflects a change in how Admiral plans to fund its employee share scheme. Instead of issuing new shares, the company will buy shares in the market, which reduces capital available for special dividends. 

As a result, RBC lowered its assumptions for special dividend payments. The broker said this change reduces the total stated payout ratio to the mid-80% range from the low-90% range and lowers total dividend per share by about 10% before any changes to earnings. 

RBC modelled costs of £40 million in the second half of 2025, £80 million in 2026 and £94 million in 2027 related to the share purchases, compared with a FY24 dividend declared of £588 million.

RBC also revised its earnings forecasts, primarily reflecting a more cautious view on UK motor insurance. The broker cut earnings per share estimates by 1% for FY25E and by 4% for both FY26E and FY27E. 

These reductions are in addition to earlier cuts made in mid-December. Lower earnings and reduced special dividends led RBC to cut total dividend per share forecasts by 3% for FY25E, 12% for FY26E and 14% for FY27E.

The revised forecasts place RBC below market expectations. The broker said its FY26E and FY27E EPS estimates are 8% and 11% below Visible Alpha consensus, respectively, while its dividend forecasts are 13% and 16% below consensus for those years. 

RBC now forecasts a 2% compound annual decline in EPS from FY25 to FY27, citing slower release of earnings from higher-margin years alongside the timing of any improvement in pricing.

RBC lowered its valuation multiple to 13x forward earnings from 15x, compared with a long-run average of about 17x. The new price target of 3,100p implies an unchanged target dividend yield of about 6%, which RBC said is in line with Admiral’s long-run average. 

Admiral shares were trading at about 2,948p at the time of the report, with a dividend yield of 7.2%, based on RBC data.

The broker said that while there are early signs of easing competitive conditions in UK motor insurance, these are not expected to translate quickly into earnings. 

RBC said sustained outperformance would likely require clearer evidence of a cyclical turn and a return to material EPS growth. 

Investing.com -- Beazley PLC (LON:BEZG) stock fell 0.5% on Thursday after the specialty insurer unanimously rejected a takeover proposal from Zurich Insurance Group, stating that the offer materially undervalues the company.

The London-based insurer confirmed it had turned down Zurich’s cash proposal of 1,280 pence per share, which valued Beazley at approximately £8.2 billion. The rejection follows detailed evaluation by Beazley’s board and its advisers.

According to the company’s statement, Zurich’s latest proposal is below its previous June 2025 offer of 1,315 pence per share, which valued Beazley at £8.4 billion or approximately 2.4 times its tangible book value as of December 31, 2024.

Beazley’s board expressed confidence in the company’s standalone prospects, highlighting its track record of delivering shareholder returns of approximately 2,200% over the past 20 years.

The company also pointed to its underwriting excellence with an average undiscounted combined ratio of 78% since 2022 and its leadership position in the growing cyber insurance market.

The insurer noted it has returned over $2.5 billion to shareholders over the last decade, including $1.3 billion in the past three years, while maintaining what it describes as "a very prudent capital and reserving policy."

"...we think the bid has focused the spotlight on Beazley’s strong strategic positioning, track record and the distinctiveness of its operations. This could attract other suitors. Given the medium-term outlook for industry profitability, however, we remain of the view that consolidation at a reasonable premium could be in the best long-term interest of Beazley’s shareholders," according to RBC analysts.