2025 Hurricane Season: Eastern Gulf of Mexico Faces Increased ThreatOPIS

Dow Jones Newswires

With less than two months to go before the start of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, early forecasts suggest there could be a heightened focus of storms in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, particularly affecting Louisiana, Florida, and the eastern seaboard.

The tropical storm season, which traditionally spans from June 1 to November 30, could threaten critical energy and economic infrastructure in the region as well as potentially curtailing NGL processing and fractionation via the risk of power outages and flooding.

Current long-range weather and climate models suggest several factors are contributing to a trend of the eastern Gulf of Mexico being more in the crosshairs this year than usual.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration last week called for a "highly active" Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasters predict a total of 17-24 named storms, with winds of 39 mph or greater. NOAA said 8-13 could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or greater. Of that number, 4-7 could strengthen into major hurricanes with wind speeds of 111 mph or greater.

NOAA also said there is a 30% chance that a major hurricane will hit the East Coast, including peninsular Florida, compared with a long-term average of 21%.

Meanwhile, Colorado State University's Tropical Weather and Climate Research center is predicting 23 named storms, of which 12 will become hurricanes. Of those, CSU expects six will strengthen into major storms of Category 3 or higher.

One significant influence is the moderately warmer sea surface temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico, which are typically conducive to hurricane formation. These temperatures have been attributed to creating atmospheric conditions more favorable for cyclonic development in the eastern Gulf rather than the traditional hurricane breeding grounds in the Caribbean.

Longer-range models and indicators also suggest there is a heightened potential for close-in tropical developments. This means tropical storms or hurricanes form and develop in the Gulf of Mexico, instead of the Atlantic basin.

The eastern Gulf is home to numerous offshore oil and gas production platforms, particularly those situated in the waters off Louisiana and Mississippi. The 2024 hurricane season raised concerns for these facilities as storms made their way toward the Texas and Louisiana border coastlines.

The potential for power outages, flooding, and structural damage to onshore and offshore rigs could lead to a disruption in production, affecting both local economies and national oil supplies.

The offshore oil and gas sector in the Gulf accounts for nearly 15% of the total U.S. crude oil production, making it a vital component of the national energy infrastructure.

Additionally, coastal refineries that turn energy feedstock into usable products could face serious threats. These facilities, particularly those lining the Louisiana and Texas coasts, are susceptible to storm surge and torrential rainfall.

In the past, storms have forced refineries to shut down temporarily, resulting in a ripple effect on fuel availability and prices. With increasing climatic volatility, these facilities are investing in resilience plans, including improved flood barriers and emergency response protocols to mitigate the potential impacts of storm-induced shutdowns.

Moreover, the Mont Belvieu NGL storage and fractionation facilities in Texas are also under scrutiny as they prepare for the upcoming hurricane season. Positioned inland but still vulnerable to the effects of storms, these facilities must contend with both direct weather impacts and supply chain disruptions from the Gulf, which includes the potential for widespread power outage.

In 2024, Hurricane Beryl led to significant disruptions at the Mont Belvieu hub, as well as resulting in a temporary shutdown of a propane dehydrogenation unit operated by Enterprise Products Partners. This shutdown also hindered storage injection and withdrawal operations of purity products, thereby affecting the entire NGL value chain.

Additionally, the storm caused extensive power outages and infrastructure damage, which disrupted the energy sector and hindered natural gas processing and export facilities.

Past hurricanes have revealed how interconnected the region's energy infrastructure is, as damage to one area can lead to widespread ramifications across the system.

While forecasts are still evolving, one thing is certain: the combination of warming waters and ongoing climatic shifts suggests a heightened focus on the tropical season once conditions become favorable for storm development.

This content was created by Oil Price Information Service, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. OPIS is run independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

Reporting by Alan Lammey, alammey@opiset.com; Editing by Jessica Marron, jmarron@opisnet.com

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U.S. Natural Gas Futures Pull Back After RallyMarket Talk

Dow Jones Newswires

U.S. natural gas futures retreat as risk-off sentiment returns to markets after yesterday's rally on President Trump's 90-day tariff pause. A bearish 57 Bcf injection into storage for last week that cut the deficit over the five-year average to just 40 Bcf, is partly offset by record flows of feedgas to LNG export terminals, Gelber & Associates says in a note. The EIA raised its 2025 LNG export forecast to 15.2 Bcf a day from 14.2 Bcf a day, citing a faster than expected ramp-up at Plaquemines. The EIA also said its expects natural gas storage to end the injection season around 3,660 Bcf, or 3% below the five-year average. Nymex natural gas settles down 6.8% at $3.557/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

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Gold Closes at Record High As Worries PersistMarket Talk

Dow Jones Newswires

Gold futures close up 3.2% to $3,155.20 an ounce, which is a new record for the front-month contract. It's also the biggest move up the front month contract has seen since April 9, 2020. The elation of President Trump pausing the reciprocal tariffs on numerous countries for 90 days gave way to resumed uncertainty on wider markets, with tariffs on China ramping up. "Gold continues to capitalize on its status as the last safe haven standing," says Robert Yawger of Mizuho Securities USA. Yawger adds that gold futures may break through the $3,200 per troy ounce threshold soon. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

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Oil Futures Give Back Most Tariff-Pause GainsMarket Talk

Dow Jones Newswires

Oil futures return most of the previous day's gains as the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China keep concerns about weaker demand alive at the same time that OPEC and its allies raise output. In China, the world's biggest crude importer, "the problem is deflation/stagflation," Mizuho's Robert Yawger says in a note, pointing to a further decline in Chinese producer prices. The EIA lowered its oil demand growth estimate for this year to 900,000 barrels a day from 1.3 million barrels a day, citing fallout from tariffs, and cut its 2025 price estimate for Brent to $68 a barrel from $74. Brent settled down 3.3% at $63.33 a barrel and WTI falls 3.7% to $60.07. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

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Nymex Platinum, Palladium Warehouse Stocks - Apr 10

Dow Jones Newswires

Source: CME Group 
 
For previous business day 
PREV TOTAL subject to revisions. Source: CME Group 
 
                      Prev                         Net               Total 
Platinum             Total  Received Withdrawn  Change Adjustment    Today 
ASAHI DEPOSITORY LLC 
Registered               0         0        0       0         0          0 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                    0         0        0       0         0          0 
 
BRINK'S, INC. 
Registered         133,662         0        0       0         0    133,662 
Eligible           126,514         0        0       0         0    126,514 
Total              260,175         0        0       0         0    260,175 
 
CNT DEPOSITORY, INC. 
Registered           1,246         0        0       0         0      1,246 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                1,246         0        0       0         0      1,246 
 
DELAWARE DEPOSITORY 
Registered           4,569         0        0       0         0      4,569 
Eligible            20,801         0        0       0         0     20,801 
Total               25,370         0        0       0         0     25,370 
 
HSBC BANK, USA 
Registered           1,442         0        0       0         0      1,442 
Eligible            26,295         0        0       0         0     26,295 
Total               27,738         0        0       0         0     27,738 
 
INTERNATIONAL DEPOSITORY SERVICES OF DELAWARE 
Registered           3,845         0        0       0         0      3,845 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                3,845         0        0       0         0      3,845 
 
JP MORGAN CHASE BANK NA 
Registered         141,488         0        0       0         0    141,488 
Eligible            18,285         0        0       0         0     18,285 
Total              159,773         0        0       0         0    159,773 
 
LOOMIS INTERNATIONAL (US) LLC 
Registered         102,840         0        0       0         0    102,840 
Eligible            31,936         0    5,149  -5,149         0     26,788 
Total              134,776         0    5,149  -5,149         0    129,628 
 
MALCA-AMIT USA, LLC 
Registered             592         0        0       0         0        592 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                  592         0        0       0         0        592 
 
MANFRA, TORDELLA & BROOKES, INC. 
Registered           5,700         0        0       0         0      5,700 
Eligible            11,398         0        0       0         0     11,398 
Total               17,099         0        0       0         0     17,099 
 
COMBINED TOTALS 
Registered         395,385         0        0       0         0    395,385 
Eligible           235,229         0    5,149  -5,149         0    230,081 
Total              630,614         0    5,149  -5,149         0    625,466 
 
                      Prev                         Net               Total 
Palladium            Total  Received Withdrawn  Change Adjustment    Today 
ASAHI DEPOSITORY LLC 
Registered               0         0        0       0         0          0 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                    0         0        0       0         0          0 
 
BRINK'S, INC. 
Registered          16,117         0        0       0   -10,060      6,057 
Eligible            21,642         0        0       0    10,060     31,702 
Total               37,759         0        0       0         0     37,759 
 
CNT DEPOSITORY, INC. 
Registered              97         0        0       0         0         97 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                   97         0        0       0         0         97 
 
DELAWARE DEPOSITORY 
Registered             987         0        0       0         0        987 
Eligible             3,306         0        0       0         0      3,306 
Total                4,292         0        0       0         0      4,292 
 
HSBC BANK, USA 
Registered             586         0        0       0         0        586 
Eligible             2,623         0        0       0         0      2,623 
Total                3,209         0        0       0         0      3,209 
 
INTERNATIONAL DEPOSITORY SERVICES OF DELAWARE 
Registered               0         0        0       0         0          0 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                    0         0        0       0         0          0 
 
JP MORGAN CHASE BANK NA 
Registered          12,746         0        0       0         0     12,746 
Eligible               728         0        0       0         0        728 
Total               13,474         0        0       0         0     13,474 
 
LOOMIS INTERNATIONAL (US) LLC 
Registered          10,011         0        0       0         0     10,011 
Eligible             7,288         0        0       0         0      7,288 
Total               17,299         0        0       0         0     17,299 
 
MALCA-AMIT USA, LLC 
Registered               0         0        0       0         0          0 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                    0         0        0       0         0          0 
 
MANFRA, TORDELLA & BROOKES, INC. 
Registered           2,116         0        0       0         0      2,116 
Eligible               630         0        0       0         0        630 
Total                2,746         0        0       0         0      2,746 
 
COMBINED TOTALS 
Registered          42,659         0        0       0   -10,060     32,599 
Eligible            36,217         0        0       0    10,060     46,277 
Total               78,876         0        0       0         0     78,876 
 
Write to Taryn Boss at csstat@dowjones.com

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ICE Review

Dow Jones Newswires

WINNIPEG, Manitoba--The ICE Futures canola market extended its rally on Thursday on the strength of vegetable oils and despite pressure from the Canadian dollar.

An analyst said the next resistance level for May canola is C$680 per tonne, adding that China needs additional sources for vegetable oil imports. Another analyst said the current trade situation may be a boon to Canadian canola despite Chinese tariffs on canola oil and meal.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced earlier today he was raising tariffs on Chinese goods to at least 145%.

Chicago soyoil, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil were positive. However, ongoing trade tensions caused crude oil prices to drop by US$2 per barrel.

At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was up nearly nine-tenths of a U.S. cent compared to Wednesday's close.

There were 63,283 canola contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 70,696 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 40,102 of the contracts traded. Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

 
           Price      Change 
May       654.00     up 2.80 
Jul       662.80     up 4.00 
Nov       638.40     up 1.60 
Jan       644.20     up 0.70

Spread trade prices are in Canadian dollars and the volume represents the number of spreads:

 
Months    Prices                            Volume 
May/Jul   5.40 under to 9.00 under          13,862 
May/Nov   18.40 over to 13.80 over             336 
May/Jan   9.50 over to 8.60 over                 3 
Jul/Nov   28.80 over to 19.50 over           3,857 
Jul/Jan   18.80 over to 15.40 over              24 
Nov/Jan   5.30 under to 7.00 under           1,534 
Nov/Mar   11.10 under                           15 
Nov/May   13.90 under                            6 
Jan/Mar   3.50 under to 5.00 under             298 
Mar/May   2.20 under to 2.80 under              50 
May/Jul   0.90 under to 1.70 under              61 
Jul/Nov   24.00 over                             5

Source: Commodity News Service Canada, news@marketsfarm.com

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Livestock Finish Split After WASDE Shows Bifurcated OutlooksMarket Talk

Dow Jones Newswires

The April WASDE report reinforced the divergence in today's session, with most-active lean hog futures finishing up 1.5% to 93.075 cents a pound and live cattle closing down 1.7% to $1.9505 a pound. For hogs, the USDA forecast lower pork production in 2025, due to both reduced slaughters and reduced weights for pigs in the system. For cattle, the situation is opposite — with weights heavier for slaughtered animals and the pace of slaughters being higher. The view for exports for both meats was revised lower, the USDA says, due to "newly imposed tariffs and non-tariff barriers." (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

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