2 Reasons to Watch CINF and 1 to Stay Cautious

Stock Story

Cincinnati Financial trades at $162.19 per share and has stayed right on track with the overall market, gaining 8.9% over the last six months. At the same time, the S&P 500 has returned 10%.

Why Does CINF Stock Spark Debate?

Founded in 1950 by independent insurance agents seeking stable market options for their clients, Cincinnati Financial provides property casualty insurance, life insurance, and related financial services through independent agencies across 46 states.

Two Things to Like:

1. Net Premiums Earned Skyrocket, Fueling Growth Opportunities

When insurers sell policies, they protect themselves from extremely large losses or an outsized accumulation of losses with reinsurance (insurance for insurance companies). Net premiums earned are therefore gross premiums less what’s ceded to reinsurers as a risk mitigation and transfer strategy.

Cincinnati Financial’s net premiums earned has grown at a 12.1% annualized rate over the last two years, better than the broader insurance industry and in line with its total revenue.

Cincinnati Financial Trailing 12-Month Net Premiums Earned

2. Outstanding Long-Term EPS Growth

We track the long-term change in earnings per share (EPS) because it highlights whether a company’s growth is profitable.

Cincinnati Financial’s EPS grew at a spectacular 21.6% compounded annual growth rate over the last five years, higher than its 10.7% annualized revenue growth. This tells us the company became more profitable on a per-share basis as it expanded.

Cincinnati Financial Trailing 12-Month EPS (Non-GAAP)

One Reason to be Careful:

Projected BVPS Growth Is Slim

An insurer’s book value per share (BVPS) increases when it maintains a profitable combined ratio and effectively manages its investment portfolio.

Over the next 12 months, Consensus estimates call for Cincinnati Financial’s BVPS to grow by 5.1% to $93.62, lousy growth rate.

Cincinnati Financial Quarterly Book Value per Share

Final Judgment

Cincinnati Financial has huge potential even though it has some open questions, but at $162.19 per share (or 1.6× forward P/B), is now the right time to buy the stock? See for yourself in our comprehensive research report, it’s free.

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A Look Back at Property & Casualty Insurance Stocks’ Q3 Earnings: Skyward Specialty Insurance (NASDAQ:SKWD) Vs The Rest Of The Pack

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Skyward Specialty Insurance

As the Q3 earnings season wraps, let’s dig into this quarter’s best and worst performers in the property & casualty insurance industry, including Skyward Specialty Insurance and its peers.

Property & Casualty (P&C) insurers protect individuals and businesses against financial loss from damage to property or from legal liability. This is a cyclical industry, and the sector benefits when there is 'hard market', characterized by strong premium rate increases that outpace loss and cost inflation, resulting in robust underwriting margins. The opposite is true in a 'soft market'. Interest rates also matter, as they determine the yields earned on fixed-income portfolios. On the other hand, P&C insurers face a major secular headwind from the increasing frequency and severity of catastrophe losses due to climate change. Furthermore, the liability side of the business is pressured by 'social inflation'—the trend of rising litigation costs and larger jury awards.

The 33 property & casualty insurance stocks we track reported a strong Q3. As a group, revenues beat analysts’ consensus estimates by 14.7%.

Thankfully, share prices of the companies have been resilient as they are up 6.2% on average since the latest earnings results.

Skyward Specialty Insurance

Founded in 2006 to serve markets where standard insurance coverage falls short, Skyward Specialty Insurance provides customized commercial property, casualty, and health insurance solutions for underserved or specialized market niches.

Skyward Specialty Insurance reported revenues of $382.5 million, up 27.1% year on year. This print exceeded analysts’ expectations by 14.3%. Overall, it was a stunning quarter for the company with an impressive beat of analysts’ net premiums earned estimates and a solid beat of analysts’ revenue estimates.

Skyward Specialty Chairman and CEO Andrew Robinson commented, “Our third quarter results were exceptional, extending our track record of profitable growth and double-digit returns. Gross written premiums grew more than 50%, we achieved a Company-best combined ratio of 89.2% and annualized return on equity of 19.3%. Five of our nine divisions grew by more than 25% in the quarter, led by the agriculture and credit (re)insurance division. These results underscore the strength and discipline of our “Rule Our Niche” strategy and the benefits of our intentionally diversified portfolio, much of which is less exposed to P&C market cycles.

Skyward Specialty Insurance Total Revenue

Interestingly, the stock is up 11.1% since reporting and currently trades at $51.73.

Read why we think that Skyward Specialty Insurance is one of the best property & casualty insurance stocks, our full report is free.

Best Q3: Root

Pioneering a data-driven approach that rewards good driving habits, Root is a technology-driven auto insurance company that uses mobile apps to acquire customers and data science to price policies based on individual driving behavior.

Root reported revenues of $387.8 million, up 26.9% year on year, outperforming analysts’ expectations by 4.5%. The business had an incredible quarter with a beat of analysts’ EPS estimates and an impressive beat of analysts’ net premiums earned estimates.

Although it had a fine quarter compared its peers, the market seems unhappy with the results as the stock is down 17.2% since reporting. It currently trades at $74.10.

Weakest Q3: Progressive

Starting as a small auto insurance company in 1937 with a pioneering focus on high-risk drivers, Progressive is a major auto, property, and commercial insurance provider that offers policies through independent agents, online platforms, and over the phone.

Progressive reported revenues of $22.51 billion, up 14.2% year on year, in line with analysts’ expectations. It was a softer quarter as it posted a significant miss of analysts’ EPS estimates and a miss of analysts’ book value per share estimates.

As expected, the stock is down 5.4% since the results and currently trades at $227.52.

Read our full analysis of Progressive’s results here.

Kinsale Capital Group

Founded in 2009 during the aftermath of the financial crisis when many insurers were retreating from riskier markets, Kinsale Capital Group is an insurance company that specializes in writing policies for hard-to-place, unusual, or high-risk businesses that standard insurers typically avoid.

Kinsale Capital Group reported revenues of $497.5 million, up 19% year on year. This result beat analysts’ expectations by 10.9%. Overall, it was a strong quarter as it also produced an impressive beat of analysts’ net premiums earned estimates and a solid beat of analysts’ revenue estimates.

The stock is down 12.5% since reporting and currently trades at $396.89.

Read our full, actionable report on Kinsale Capital Group here, it’s free for active Edge members.

Cincinnati Financial

Cincinnati Financial reported revenues of $2.87 billion, up 12.1% year on year. This print was in line with analysts’ expectations. It was an exceptional quarter as it also put up an impressive beat of analysts’ book value per share estimates and a beat of analysts’ EPS estimates.

The stock is up 5.3% since reporting and currently trades at $165.93.

Read our full, actionable report on Cincinnati Financial here, it’s free for active Edge members.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Cincinnati Fincl Is Maintained at Neutral by Piper Sandler

Dow Jones Newswires

Cincinnati Financial

+3.12%

(12:58 GMT) Cincinnati Fincl Price Target Raised to $157.00/Share From $150.00 by Piper Sandler

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A Look Back at Property & Casualty Insurance Stocks’ Q3 Earnings: Radian Group (NYSE:RDN) Vs The Rest Of The Pack

Stock Story

Selective Insurance Group, Inc. Depositary Shares, each representing a 1/1,000th interest in a share of 4.60% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series B

+0.15%

Progressive

+2.24%

The end of an earnings season can be a great time to discover new stocks and assess how companies are handling the current business environment. Let’s take a look at how Radian Group and the rest of the property & casualty insurance stocks fared in Q3.

The 33 property & casualty insurance stocks we track reported a strong Q3. As a group, revenues beat analysts’ consensus estimates by 15.1%.

In light of this news, share prices of the companies have held steady as they are up 2.1% on average since the latest earnings results.

Radian Group

Founded during the housing boom of 1977 and weathering multiple real estate cycles since, Radian Group provides mortgage insurance and real estate services, helping lenders manage risk and homebuyers achieve affordable homeownership.

Radian Group reported revenues of $310.6 million, down 8.4% year on year. This print fell short of analysts’ expectations by 2.1%. Overall, it was a slower quarter for the company with a miss of analysts’ revenue estimates.

“We delivered excellent financial results during the quarter and announced our plans to strategically transform Radian into a global, multi-line specialty insurer,” said Radian’s Chief Executive Officer Rick Thornberry.

Interestingly, the stock is up 3.5% since reporting and currently trades at $35.52.

Read our full report on Radian Group here, it’s free for active Edge members.

Best Q3: Root

Although it had a fine quarter compared its peers, the market seems unhappy with the results as the stock is down 6.7% since reporting. It currently trades at $83.46.

Is now the time to buy Root? Access our full analysis of the earnings results here, it’s free for active Edge members.

Weakest Q3: Progressive

As expected, the stock is down 7.4% since the results and currently trades at $222.72.

Read our full analysis of Progressive’s results here.

Cincinnati Financial

Cincinnati Financial reported revenues of $2.87 billion, up 12.1% year on year. This result was in line with analysts’ expectations. Overall, it was an exceptional quarter as it also logged a solid beat of analysts’ book value per share estimates and a beat of analysts’ EPS estimates.

The stock is up 3.1% since reporting and currently trades at $162.55.

Read our full, actionable report on Cincinnati Financial here, it’s free for active Edge members.

Selective Insurance Group

Founded in 1926 during the early days of automobile insurance, Selective Insurance Group is a property and casualty insurance company that sells commercial, personal, and excess and surplus lines insurance products through independent agents.

Selective Insurance Group reported revenues of $1.36 billion, up 9.3% year on year. This number surpassed analysts’ expectations by 364%. Zooming out, it was a softer quarter as it recorded a significant miss of analysts’ EPS estimates and a significant miss of analysts’ book value per share estimates.

Selective Insurance Group achieved the biggest analyst estimates beat among its peers. The stock is down 2.9% since reporting and currently trades at $78.80.

Read our full, actionable report on Selective Insurance Group here, it’s free for active Edge members.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Cincinnati Financial Corporation Declares Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend

Dow Jones Newswires

Cincinnati Financial

+3.12%

CINCINNATI, Nov. 14, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — Cincinnati Financial Corporation announced that at today's regular meeting, the board of directors declared an 87 cents-per-share regular quarterly cash dividend. The dividend is payable January 15, 2026, to shareholders of record as of December 22, 2025.

Stephen M. Spray, president and chief executive officer, commented, "From our roots as a small, agent-founded insurer to a company with deep financial strength and a track record of profitable growth, the principles established at our founding 75 years ago still guide us today. This dividend declaration is a tangible demonstration of our board's confidence in our capital position and in our operational performance. Our goal remains consistent: deliver steady value to our shareholders while supporting our agents and maintaining a disciplined approach to managing risk."

About Cincinnati Financial

Cincinnati Financial Corporation offers primarily business, home and auto insurance through The Cincinnati Insurance Company and its two standard market property casualty companies. The same local independent insurance agencies that market those policies may offer products of our other subsidiaries, including life insurance, fixed annuities and surplus lines property and casualty insurance. For additional information about the company, please visit cinfin.com.

 
Mailing Address:             Street Address: 
P.O. Box 145496              6200 South Gilmore Road 
Cincinnati, Ohio 45250-5496  Fairfield, Ohio 45014-5141

Safe Harbor Statement

Our business is subject to certain risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements contained herein, are based upon our current estimates, assumptions and plans that are subject to uncertainty. These statements are made subject to the safe-harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements can be identified by words like "seek," "expect," "will," "should," "could," "might," "anticipate," "believe," "estimate," "intend," "likely," "future," or other similar expressions. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they were made; we assume no obligation to update such statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to:

Insurance-Related Risks

Risks and uncertainties associated with our loss reserves or actual claim costs exceeding reserves
Increased frequency and/or severity of claims or development of claims that are unforeseen at the time of policy issuance
Unusually high levels of catastrophe losses due to risk concentrations or changes in weather patterns, environmental events, war or political unrest, terrorism incidents, cyberattacks, civil unrest or other causes; and our ability to manage catastrophe risk
Risks associated with analytical models in key areas such as underwriting, pricing, capital management, reserving, investments, reinsurance, and catastrophe risk management
Inadequate estimates or assumptions, or reliance on third-party data used for critical accounting estimates
Events or conditions that could weaken or harm our relationships with our independent agencies and hamper opportunities to add new agencies, resulting in limitations on our opportunities for growth
Mergers, acquisitions, and other consolidations of agencies that result in a concentration of a significant amount of premium in one agency or agency group and/or alter our competitive advantages
Our inability to manage business opportunities, growth prospects, and expenses for our ongoing operations
Changing consumer insurance-buying habits
The inability to obtain adequate ceded reinsurance on acceptable terms, for acceptable amounts, and from financially strong reinsurers; and the potential for nonpayment or delay in payment by reinsurers
Domestic and global events, such as the wars in Ukraine and in the Middle East, future pandemics, inflationary trends, changes in U.S. trade and tariff policy, and disruptions in the banking and financial services industry, resulting in insurance losses, capital market or credit market uncertainty, followed by prolonged periods of economic instability or recession, that lead to:
-- Securities market disruption or volatility and related effects
such as decreased economic activity and continued supply chain disruptions that affect our investment portfolio and book value
-- Significant or prolonged decline in the fair value of securities
and impairment of the assets
-- Significant decline in investment income due to reduced or
eliminated dividend payouts from securities
-- Significant rise in losses from surety or director and officer
policies written for financial institutions or other insured entities or in losses from policies written by Cincinnati Re or Cincinnati Global
-- An unusually high level of claims in our insurance or reinsurance
operations that increase litigation-related expenses
-- Decreased premium revenue and cash flow from disruption to our
distribution channel of independent agents, consumer self-isolation, travel limitations, business restrictions and decreased economic activity
-- The inability of our workforce, agencies, or vendors to perform
necessary business functions

Financial, Economic, and Investment Risks

Declines in overall stock market values negatively affecting our equity portfolio and book value
Downgrades in our financial strength ratings
Interest rate fluctuations or other factors that could significantly affect:
-- Our ability to generate growth in investment income

-- Values of our fixed-maturity investments and accounts in which we
hold bank-owned life insurance contract assets
-- Our traditional life policy reserves
Economic volatility and illiquidity associated with our alternative investments in private equity, private credit, real property, and limited partnerships
Failure to comply with covenants and other requirements under our credit facilities, senior debt, and other debt obligations
Recession, prolonged elevated inflation, or other economic conditions resulting in lower demand for insurance products or increased payment delinquencies
The inability of our subsidiaries to pay dividends consistent with current or past levels impacting our ability to pay shareholder dividends or repurchase shares

General Business, Technology, and Operational Risks

Ineffective information technology systems or failing to develop and implement improvements in technology
Difficulties with technology or data security breaches, including cyberattacks, could negatively affect our, or our agents', ability to conduct business; disrupt our relationships with agents, policyholders, and others; cause reputational damage, mitigation expenses, data loss, and expose us to liability
Difficulties with our operations and technology that may negatively impact our ability to conduct business, including cloud-based data information storage, data security, remote working capabilities, and/or outsourcing relationships and third-party operations and data security
Disruption of the insurance market caused by technology innovations -- such as driverless cars -- that could decrease consumer demand for insurance products
Delays, inadequate data developed internally or from third parties, or performance inadequacies from ongoing development and implementation of underwriting and pricing models and methods, including usage-based insurance methods, automation, artificial intelligence, or technology projects and enhancements expected to increase our efficiency, pricing accuracy, underwriting profit, and competitiveness
Intense competition, and the impact of innovation, emerging technologies, artificial intelligence and changing customer preferences on the insurance industry and the markets in which we operate, could harm our ability to maintain or increase our business volumes and profitability
Inability to defer policy acquisition costs for any business segment if pricing and loss trends would lead management to conclude that the segment could not achieve sustainable profitability
Unforeseen departure of certain executive officers or other key employees that could interrupt progress toward important strategic goals or diminish the effectiveness of certain longstanding relationships with insurance agents and others
Our inability, or the inability of our independent agents, to attract and retain personnel
Events, such as a pandemic, an epidemic, natural catastrophe, or terrorism, which could hamper our ability to assemble our workforce, work effectively in a remote environment, or other failures of business continuity or disaster recovery programs

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Cincinnati Fincl Is Maintained at Outperform by Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

Dow Jones Newswires

Cincinnati Financial

+3.12%

(13:44 GMT) Cincinnati Fincl Price Target Raised to $180.00/Share From $177.00 by Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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The Top 5 Analyst Questions From Cincinnati Financial’s Q3 Earnings Call

Stock Story

Cincinnati Financial

+3.12%

Cincinnati Financial’s third quarter results topped Wall Street expectations for both revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share; however, the market responded negatively, reflecting investor concerns about underlying business trends. Management attributed the quarter’s outcome to strong investment income growth and improved underwriting performance, particularly in property casualty lines. CEO Steve Spray highlighted robust results in both commercial and personal lines, citing lower catastrophe losses and continued underwriting discipline. The company also benefited from a favorable investment environment and consistent reserve development, but acknowledged that commercial auto and large losses presented ongoing volatility within certain segments.

Is now the time to buy CINF? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).

Cincinnati Financial (CINF) Q3 CY2025 Highlights:

Revenue: $3.73 billion vs analyst estimates of $3.00 billion (45.4% year-on-year growth, 24.2% beat)
Adjusted EPS: $2.85 vs analyst estimates of $2.06 (38.4% beat)
Adjusted Operating Income: $560 million (15% margin, 98.6% year-on-year growth)
Operating Margin: 37.9%, down from 40.6% in the same quarter last year
Market Capitalization: $24.12 billion

While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.

Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Cincinnati Financial’s Q3 Earnings Call

Michael Phillips (Oppenheimer): asked about commercial auto reserve adequacy and large loss volatility. CEO Steve Spray emphasized consistent reserving processes and noted profitability through the year, while CFO Mike Sewell clarified that unfavorable development was limited to older accident years.
Jon Paul Newsome (Piper Sandler): questioned general liability reserve trends and the impact of legal system abuse. Spray described the legal system as a persistent headwind but expressed confidence in reserve processes and favorable development in recent years.
Charles Peters (Raymond James): inquired about new business trends and competition. Spray acknowledged strong absolute new business across segments, attributing recent deceleration to tougher prior-year comparisons rather than loss of competitiveness.
Joshua Shanker (Bank of America): sought clarity on the impact of agency expansion on growth and the ability to maintain the “Cincinnati experience.” Spray maintained that deep agent relationships and selective appointments remain foundational, even as the agency footprint grows.
Meyer Shields (KBW): asked about catastrophe reinsurance strategy for 2026. Spray confirmed the intent to maintain consistent philosophy focused on balance sheet protection, with adjustments tied to capital growth and exposure profile.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

In the coming quarters, our analysts will be tracking (1) the impact of competitive pricing on commercial line renewals and retention, (2) shifts in the California business mix as E&S penetration increases and regulatory changes evolve, and (3) developments in catastrophe reinsurance structure and potential changes in retention or coverage levels. The trajectory of investment income and underwriting discipline will also be key metrics for ongoing performance.

Cincinnati Financial currently trades at $155, down from $157.67 just before the earnings. Is there an opportunity in the stock?See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).

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