Week Ahead – Flash PMIs, US and UK Inflation Eyed as Tariff War Rumbles On

Central Bank

Summary:

US PCE inflation up next, but will consumption data matter more?UK budget and CPI in focus after hawkish BoE decision.Euro turns to flash PMIs for bounce as rally runs out of steam.Inflation numbers out of Tokyo and Australia also on the agenda.

Dollar ignores Powell’s dovish soundbites

The US dollar has been on a positive footing since the March FOMC meeting, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplayed the risk of a recession while maintaining caution over the inflation outlook. Treasury yields, in contrast, dipped after the meeting, and stocks on Wall Street rose, backing the notion of a dovish surprise by the Fed.

Week Ahead – Flash PMIs, US and UK Inflation Eyed as Tariff War Rumbles On_1

The dollar’s contradictory response could be explained by the fact that it hadn’t been tracking the recovery in yields from earlier this month, so this was just catchup. However, it’s debatable how dovish Powell really was. Yes, he soothed market nerves by suggesting that any inflationary effect from higher tariffs would likely be transitory, but he wasn’t particularly upbeat about the Fed hitting its 2% target anytime soon either.

The fact that FOMC members maintained their prediction of just two 25-basis-point-cuts this year and signalled gradual easing over the course of the forecast period indicates the Fed is still in inflation fighting mode. Markets, on the other hand, think there’s a strong likelihood of a third cut this year, as many investors are betting that the US economy will slow more than what the Fed is projecting.

Is the US consumer still spending?

Hence, growth data could climb to the top of investors’ minds over the coming months, if it hasn’t already, with inflation metrics attracting somewhat less attention. The highlight next week will be Friday’s personal income and outlays report, which includes the PCE inflation readings.

Week Ahead – Flash PMIs, US and UK Inflation Eyed as Tariff War Rumbles On_2

The Cleveland Fed’s own Nowcast model is estimating that the headline PCE price index moderated from 2.5% to 2.4% y/y in February but that the core PCE price index stayed unchanged at 2.6% y/y.

Such numbers are likely to neither please nor upset the markets, and so the personal income and spending component of the report could take the spotlight. Personal consumption fell by 0.2% m/m in January. But this was after several months of strong increases. Analysts are forecasting a rebound of 0.6% m/m in February. Therefore, any unexpected weakness could revive slowdown fears, putting the dollar on the backfoot again.

Week Ahead – Flash PMIs, US and UK Inflation Eyed as Tariff War Rumbles On_3

Recession angst could return

It’s possible, though, that recession concerns could resurface much earlier in the week, as the March flash PMI survey by S&P Global is out on Monday. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index will be watched on Tuesday along with new home sales. Durable goods orders for February will follow on Wednesday, with pending home sales and the final estimate for Q4 GDP drawing some interest on Thursday.

Any unforeseen softness in the upcoming releases could have a devastating impact on risk appetite if they are accompanied by fresh tariff headlines. The April 2 deadline for the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs is fast approaching and the President may decide to ratchet up the rhetoric ahead of it.

Pound on stagflation watch

March has been a strong month for sterling, as it’s surged by about 3% against the US dollar. Much of that is attributed to the dollar’s dramatic pullback. But another factor is that UK economic indicators over the past couple of months have been somewhat better than expected. More importantly, inflation is on the rise again.

The Bank of England is facing a difficult dilemma, as it’s worried about a possible rise in both unemployment and inflation in the months ahead. The high risk of stagflation could cap further gains for the pound, although the UK’s exclusion from Trump’s trade war is a significant source of support for the time being.

The March PMI numbers due Monday will provide a crucial update as to whether British businesses are being affected by the global trade uncertainty, if any of them are planning to reduce their workforce and if prices pressures are easing or not. But investors will probably be focusing more on Wednesday’s CPI report for February.

Week Ahead – Flash PMIs, US and UK Inflation Eyed as Tariff War Rumbles On_4

The headline CPI rate jumped to 3.0% y/y in January, which is at the top of the Bank of England’s 1.0%-3.0% inflation buffer. The Bank expects CPI to reach 3.75% in Q3, so another reading above 3.0% is unlikely to alarm markets. Instead, investors will be looking underneath the surface, to see whether core and services CPI are accelerating at a similar rapid pace.

Last chance for reeves?

Any upside surprises could cast a dark cloud over the UK’s embattled finance minister Rachel Reeves’ Spring Statement later in the day where she is expected to outline big spending cuts. The bulk of the reductions will likely come from the welfare system – something that’s bound to be greeted more positively by the market than by voters.

A cut in spending would not only be taken as a sign that the government is not keen on any further tax increases to close the budget hole, but it’s also disinflationary, potentially making it easier for the BoE to resume rate cuts later in the year. For the pound, however, there could be an immediate boost from the budget update if Reeves also announces some new measures aimed at kickstarting the stagnant economy.

The run of data will continue on Friday with February retail sales and revised Q4 GDP figures.

Euro bulls pin hopes on PMIs as uptrend stalls

The euro’s incredible rally on the back of the German government’s substantial fiscal package and reform to borrowing rules appears to be petering out. The single currency is still the best performing major against the dollar in the year to date, but for investors to take the uptrend to the next level, they will probably need some fresh incentives.

That could come in the form of Monday’s flash PMI figures, but the odds aren’t looking good as business confidence has deteriorated in the face of US tariffs and Trump’s fury at the European Union’s retaliatory levies.

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The Eurozone composite PMI was flat in February, as an improvement in manufacturing activity was offset by a weaker services PMI. A pickup in the latter, however, can’t be ruled out as the services sector is less exposed to the immediate effects of higher tariffs, and so the euro stands some chance of receiving a lift from the data.

Traders will also be keeping an eye on Germany’s Ifo business climate gauge on Tuesday for signs that the new coalition’s spending plans are boosting optimism.

Tariffs complicate RBA and BoJ policy paths

Elsewhere, inflation will be the dominant theme in Australia and Japan where the latest releases are expected on Wednesday and Friday, respectively. Inflation in Australia is forecast to have stayed at 2.5% y/y for the third consecutive month in February, which may not be very encouraging. However, concerns are growing about the economy amid the trade tensions that threaten to cause turmoil in Australia’s largest export market – China.

Week Ahead – Flash PMIs, US and UK Inflation Eyed as Tariff War Rumbles On_6

The Australian dollar hasn’t enjoyed much of a rally against the greenback, but a stronger-than-forecast CPI print could push it higher if investors reduce their rate cut bets for the RBA.

In Japan, tariffs are also weighing on the outlook and the Bank of Japan is hesitant to commit to a timeline for further rate hikes. The absence of more hawkish signals from the BoJ has led to a bit of a pullback in the yen, though not so much against the dollar.

But the yen could resume its ascent if the incoming data points to ongoing price pressures, bolstering the case for a near-term rate increase. Producer prices for the services sector are out on Wednesday, while the March CPI estimates for the Tokyo region are due on Friday.

Week Ahead – Flash PMIs, US and UK Inflation Eyed as Tariff War Rumbles On_7

A potentially bigger driver for the yen, however, could be Friday’s Summary of Opinions of the BoJ’s March meeting. If the summary reveals board members are keener on further tightening than indicated by Governor Ueda in his latest press conference, investors might bring forward their rate hike expectations, bolstering the yen.

Source:XM

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Devin

Economic

The cryptocurrency sphere has experienced continuous pressure over the last 95 days due to significant BTC price fluctuations. As altcoin holders grapple with diminishing values, the impending implementation of tariffs by Donald Trump on April 2 looms large, raising concerns about its effects on the crypto market.

What Are Trump’s Recent Statements Indicating?

In recent communications, Trump hinted at a potentially positive outcome, suggesting that April 2 could be a turning point. Previously, he had maintained that tariff flexibility was off the table; however, he has revisited this stance, proposing a mutual approach to tariff negotiations.

How Will This Affect the Market?

This change in tone has garnered a positive reception, particularly as the EU has deferred retaliatory actions. The market has priced in adverse scenarios, making any form of tariff leniency beneficial for cryptocurrency valuations. Such developments indicate a potential for recovery in the sector.

Trump’s remarks indicate a shift towards flexibility in tariffs.
The EU’s postponement of retaliatory measures suggests a cooperative approach.
Market participants have already absorbed negative sentiments.
The U.S. military’s actions in the Middle East could continue to influence global market stability.

As discussions progress, the intersection of trade policy and cryptocurrency dynamics could set the stage for notable shifts, impacting market confidence and investment strategies moving forward.

Source: CryptoSlate

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Justin

Cryptocurrency

SHIB Exchange Reserves Reported at Historic Low Levels

Reports indicate SHIB exchange reserves are at unprecedented lows, impacting the cryptocurrency landscape as of March 21, 2025.

The decline in SHIB reserves could influence market stability, though recent price trends show upward movement despite the absence of senior developer comments.

SHIB Exchange Reserves Hit Unprecedented Low Levels

Recent reports suggest SHIB reserves on exchanges have reached historic lows, yet market prices remain stable. Data analysis tools have offered this evidence, though direct sources have not confirmed.

The Shiba Inu community and developers have not shared official updates about exchange reserves. Recent metrics indicate market resilience, showing a 1.2% 24-hour increase despite reserve concerns.

Market Stability Amid Record-Low SHIB Reserves

The decline in reserves may have limited immediate effects on SHIB holders. Continued market activity presents a confident front, while exchanges maintain operational norms.

Without official commentary, financial analysts observe a cautiously optimistic outlook. Market movements suggest changes in trader behavior might affect cryptocurrency trends.

Low SHIB Reserves Mirror Past Market Consolidations

Similar reserve levels have previously hinted at market consolidations. Past occurrences showed varied outcomes based on market conditions and trader activity.

Experts recommend monitoring trends to predict future outcomes. Historical data indicates price dynamics may stabilize if trader activity supports the existing market framework.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin is being capped at $87,500 thanks to manipulation by one or more whales, new analysis says.

The latest market coverage by trading resource Material Indicators on March 20 reveals why BTC/USD is stuck in its current range.

“Spoofy the whale” gets blame for BTC price range

Bitcoin has managed to sustain $80,000 as support for more than a week while hitting two-week highs of $87,500 on March 20.

Despite following broad volatility across risk assets, BTC/USD may have gone even higher were it not for maneuvers of large-volume trading entities on exchange order books.

Looking at global trading platform Binance, Material Indicators argued that shifting blocks of ask liquidity above price were keeping it pinned in a specific area — a classic manipulatory device known as “spoofing,” which has often been used by whales in the past.

“If you are wondering why Bitcoin price hasn't been able to rally past $87.5k yet, the reason is price suppression from Spoofy the Whale,” it summarized in a post on X. Here’s Why Bitcoin Price Can’t Go Higher Than $87.5K_1

Here’s Why Bitcoin Price Can’t Go Higher Than $87.5K_1

BTC/USDT order book liquidity data. Source: Material Indicators/X

An accompanying chart shows that the liquidity in question currently sits at $89,000. It also tracks investor order classes, showing all but the largest “whale” transactions distributing.

Discussing the data, Material Indicators hinted that support at the recent multimonth lows of $76,000 was insufficient as a firm market floor.

Bitcoin bulls keep up battle for key trend lines

Meanwhile, popular trader Daan Crypto Trades said that the current low-timeframe area of interest at $84,000 was essential for bulls going forward.

“The bulls would want to hold on to the $84K-$85K region to keep the momentum. Otherwise you're at risk of visiting those lower liquidity clusters which then can end up in a full retrace as price is still choppy,” part of his own X post explained.

“Local market structure is trying to shift to a small uptrend but the bulls need to step in and keep it that way or it will just be a quick deviation/short stop hunt.” Here’s Why Bitcoin Price Can’t Go Higher Than $87.5K_2

Here’s Why Bitcoin Price Can’t Go Higher Than $87.5K_2

BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Daan Crypto Trades paid additional attention to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and exponential moving average (EMA), key bull market trendlines that bulls are currently in the process of trying to flip to support at around $85,000. Here’s Why Bitcoin Price Can’t Go Higher Than $87.5K_3

Here’s Why Bitcoin Price Can’t Go Higher Than $87.5K_3

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Source: Cointelegraph

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Michelle

Forex

Economic

Just when it appeared that the yen scare could be easing, Japan has reported an uptick in core inflation.

Data released early Friday showed Japan's core inflation, which stripes out prices for fresh food, rose 3% year-on-year in February, moderating from January's 3.2% but beating the consensus forecast for 2.9%. The headline consumer price index eased to 3.7% from 4%.

Overall, both indices remained well above the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target, validating the central bank chief Haruhiko Kuroda's declaration of victory over decades of deflation. Notably, since November, Japan’s headline inflation has been running hotter than that of the U.S.—almost 100 basis points (bps) higher now.

The sticky inflation, plus wage hikes from the shunto wage negotiations, have bolstered calls for BOJ rate hikes. In other words, a potential yen rally, known to destabilize risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, is back on the table.

As of writing, the dollar-yen (USD/JPY) pair traded at 149.22, having bounced nearly 300 pips in a sign of renewed yen weakness since March 11, according to data source TradingView.

Hotter-Than-Expected Core Inflation in Japan Sparks Rate Hike Talk, Threatens Crypto_1

U.S.-Japan 10-year yield differential. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

That said, the narrowing or declining U.S.-Japan 10-year bond yield spread supports yen strength. Japanese yields have been rising across the curve, offering bullish cues to the yen. As of writing, Japan’s 10-year bond yield held above 1.5%, and the 30-year yield was above 2.5%, both at multi-decade highs.

A renewed yen strength could translate into risk aversion, the likes of which we saw in August last year.

Source: CoinDesk

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Glendon

Cryptocurrency

The largest altcoin Ethereum (ETH) has been lagging behind Bitcoin and its market for a long time as it struggles to combat the declines it has experienced.

Leaving investors disappointed with its poor performance, ETH's supply on cryptocurrency exchanges has dropped to very low levels.

Cryptocurrency analysis platform Santiment said in its latest assessment that ETH supply on exchanges has fallen to its lowest level since November 2015.

“Thanks to the many DeFi and staking options, Ethereum holders have reduced the available supply on exchanges to almost 8.97 million. This is the lowest level in nearly 10 years (November 2015). There is 16.4% less ETH on exchanges compared to just 7 weeks ago.”

Santiment said that ETH has been rapidly leaving crypto exchanges, with exchange balances 16.4% lower since the end of January.

This is considered a signal that investors are moving ETH to cold storage wallets for long-term holding and that the Ethereum price will increase in the future.

At this point, analysts note that a significant drop in ETH supply on exchanges is commonly known as a supply shock and signals a potential price increase. However, the price increase will only occur if demand remains strong or increases to outweigh the decreasing supply.

While the decline in exchange supply gives investors hope for ETH, analyst Scott Melker, nicknamed “The Wolf of All Streets”, stated that ETH is at a critical crossroads and said, “Either Ethereum bounces from here and these levels become a generational bottom, or everything is over for ETH.”

Source: CryptoSlate

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Blue River

Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair is trending downward, approaching 1.0829 on Friday as investors evaluate the latest developments in US Federal Reserve monetary policy.

Key drivers behind EUR/USD movement

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve held its current interest rate and overall monetary policy framework unchanged. However, the central bank signalled that two rate cuts could be expected later this year. In its commentary, the Fed highlighted growing risks to economic recovery, employment stability, and inflation trends.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplayed concerns about the inflationary impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, describing them as temporary. Powell also emphasised that the Fed would not rush into further rate cuts, reinforcing a cautious approach to monetary easing.

Adding to market uncertainty, Trump’s retaliatory tariffs – targeting countries that have imposed duties on US goods – are set to take effect on 2 April. Over the past 24 hours, the US dollar has strengthened amid fears of slowing global economic growth and escalating trade tensions. These factors have reinforced risk-averse sentiment among investors.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD declined to 1.0815, followed by a correction to 1.0860. A further decline towards 1.0765 is highly likely, with this level remaining the primary target. The MACD indicator supports this scenario. Its signal line is below zero, sloping sharply downward, indicating potential new lows.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD broke through the 1.0864 level and formed a bearish wave structure, reaching 1.0815. Today, a corrective move towards 1.0860 (testing from below) is likely. Once this correction concludes, the pair could resume its downward trajectory, targeting 1.0811. This movement marks the third wave of the downtrend. After reaching this level, another retracement towards 1.0864 is possible. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook, with its signal line below 20 and trending upward towards the 50 level.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure as the Fed’s cautious stance and global trade tensions bolster the US dollar. Technical indicators suggest further downside potential, with key support levels at 1.0765 and 1.0811. Investors should monitor upcoming economic data and trade developments for additional insights into the pair’s direction.