UK August ILO Unemployment Rate: Drops to 4.0%, Lowest Since January 2024

Economic

Data Interpretation

Summary:

The latest data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that the UK's ILO unemployment rate has dropped to 4% in June to August, reaching its lowest level since January 2024. Meanwhile, during the three months ending in August, UK wage growth slowed to its lowest level in over two years, and job vacancies fell again.

On October 15, the ONS in the UK released the ILO unemployment rate data for the three months ending in August:

The ILO unemployment rate stood at 4% in June to August, lower than the expected 4.1% and the previous figure of 4.1%.

The number of employed persons was 373,000 in June to August, which was higher than the forecast of 250,000 and the previous figure of 265,000.

The report showed that the ILO unemployment rate in June to August plunged to 4%, the lowest since January 2024. Employment increased by 373,000, higher than the figure of 265,000 released in July. The UK employment rate (for people aged 16 to 64 years) was estimated at 75.0% in June to August 2024.

The UK Claimant Count for September 2024 increased on the month and on the year, to 1.797 million. Starting in May 2024, the Department for Work and Pensions is rolling out an increase in the administrative earnings threshold for full work search conditionality. This change is likely to affect around 180,000 claimants over a period of around six months, increasing the Claimant Count over that time.

The estimated number of vacancies in the UK decreased in July to September 2024, by 34,000 on the quarter to 841,000. Vacancies decreased on the quarter for the 27th consecutive period but are still above pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic levels.

Annual growth in employees' average regular earnings (excluding bonuses) in Great Britain was 4.9% in June to August 2024, in line with expectations and lower than July's 5.1%. The annual growth in total earnings (including bonuses) was 3.8%. Annual growth in real terms for regular pay was 1.9% in June to August 2024, and for total pay was 0.9%.

As the Bank of England contemplates when to cut interest rates again, the slowdown in wage increases and another decline in job vacancies might reinforce its confidence that inflationary pressures are subsiding further.

UK ILO Unemployment Rate

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UK August ILO Unemployment Rate: Drops to 4.0%, Lowest Since January 2024

UK ILO Unemployment Rate

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