Source: Poundsterlinglive

According to Joor's transaction data, non-US retailers grew their purchases by 18% year-on-year in Q3 2025, while reversing a 5% global decline seen in Q2 2025.

In contrast, US retailers continued to see a decline in their orders, with Q3 purchases down by 10% compared to the previous year.

Several international markets saw marked growth in Q3 order volumes, with orders increasing by 40% in Italy, while Germany and South Korea both recorded a 29% rise. The UK also saw an upswing, with orders up by 22%.

Joor attributed the Q2 decline in global buying activity to a notable jump in wholesale prices after the US announced new tariffs in April.

Analysis of sales on the Joor platform found that average wholesale prices for identical styles climbed by 5% from Q1 to Q2, a significant increase on the usual quarterly adjustment of 0.6%.

The data suggests that this price adjustment directly preceded the Q2 pullback in purchasing activity.

In Q3, wholesale prices continued to rise but at a slower rate, increasing by an additional 0.5%. In comparison, the previous three years showed largely stable or declining prices between these quarters.

Joor marketing senior vice president Amanda McCormick Bacal said: "This year has marked a particularly tumultuous period for the worldwide fashion industry, causing retailers to make notable shifts in their buying strategy.

"While global purchases declined in Q2 amid significant price increases, our latest data shows a confident return to buying by retailers outside the US in Q3 — a welcome development for the fashion sector."

After the introduction of tariffs in early April, Joor surveyed its international network and found that 85% of brands intended to pass on all or part of these costs through price rises.

Among retailers, 96% of those based in the US and 82% from markets outside the US said they expected to raise their own prices as a result.

Wholesale prices continued their upward trend into Q3, increasing by a further 0.5%. Joor noted that over the previous three years, prices had remained largely stable or fallen between Q2 and Q3.

These findings are from a survey conducted by Joor between 10-20 April 2025, which garnered responses from over 400 brands and retailers worldwide.

Source: Yahoo Finance

Japan's economy probably contracted for the first time in six quarters in the July-September period after being battered by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.

Gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms probably shrank an annualised 2.5% in the third quarter, according to the median forecast of 18 economists, after an annualised 2.2% expansion in the second quarter.

Without annualisation, the third-quarter contraction was estimated at 0.6%.

Analysts attributed the slowdown to a slump in exports due to U.S. tariffs. External demand or net exports, which is exports minus imports, probably shaved 0.3 percentage points from the third-quarter GDP, after it added 0.3 points in the second quarter.

Other negative factors include a decline in housing and inventory investment after front-loading in the previous quarter.

"The Japanese economy posted an expansion that could be almost called "too good" through the first half of 2025," analysts at SMBC Nikko Securities said in their analysis.

"However, with the weight of newly imposed tariffs coming to the fore, it was compelled to undergo a correction at least temporarily."

Private consumption, which accounts for more than half Japan's GDP, was expected to have inched up 0.1% in July-September, losing steam from 0.4% growth in April-June.

Capital expenditure growth was estimated at 0.3%, the same as the previous quarter.

The U.S. agreed to a 15% tariff rate on Japanese imports when Washington and Tokyo reached a deal in July, less than the initial 27.5% it had threatened on autos and 25% for most other goods.

But the impact is seen as significant, especially for the auto industry, because the duties are still much higher than their previous rate of 2.5%.

"With real wages stagnating, personal consumption is also declining, suggesting that economic activity has entered a stagnation phase," said Saisuke Sakai, chief Japan economist at Mizuho Research & Technologies.

The government will release the July-September GDP data on November 17 at 8:50 a.m. (2350 GMT on November 16).

Source: Investing

Germany's trade surplus narrowed further in September 2025, falling to its lowest level since October 2024, as a stronger-than-expected rise in imports outpaced export growth.

According to preliminary data released by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), seasonally adjusted exports rose by 1.4% month-on-month to €131.1 billion, while imports jumped 3.1% to €115.9bn.

This brought the monthly trade surplus down to €15.3bn, compared with €16.9bn in August and €18.0bn a year earlier.

The reading came in below economists' expectations, who had anticipated a largely unchanged surplus of €16.9bn.

Over the first nine months of 2025, total exports reached €1.18 trillion, up 0.7% from the same period in 2024. Imports rose more sharply, up 4.8% to €1.03tr, pointing to a weakening trend in Germany's annual trade balance.

Import momentum outpaces exports

While German exports posted a modest recovery — up 2.0% compared to September 2024 — import volumes climbed more decisively, up 4.8% year-on-year.

The data suggest that domestic demand is showing resilience even as global demand remains mixed.

Imports from non-EU countries were a major driver of the uptick, rising 5.2% on the month. In particular, imports from China — the country's largest supplier — rose by 6.1% month-over-month to €14.6bn.

Imports from the United States increased even more sharply, up 9.0% to €8.7bn. Goods imported from the UK surged by 20% to €3.6bn.

Meanwhile, exports to the US rebounded after five months of contraction, rising by 11.9% on the month to €12.2bn. However, they remained 7.4% below September 2024 levels, reflecting the lingering effects of Trump tariffs.

Exports to the UK also saw a robust increase, up 7.1% to €7.0bn, while shipments to China declined by 2.2% to €6.7bn, remaining 11.9% below levels seen a year ago.

Germany's trade surplus remains largely fuelled by intra-EU commerce.

Exports to EU member states rose 2.5% to €74.3bn, while imports from those countries increased by a smaller 1.2% to €59.3bn.

Within the eurozone, exports rose by 1.4% and imports declined by 0.7%, further boosting the surplus.

However, the strongest momentum came from non-eurozone EU members, with exports jumping 5.1% and imports rising 4.9%.

Germany's export fragility

Carsten Brzeski, global head of Macro at ING, described the September trade figures as "more evidence of the small rebound of the German economy after the summer," but cautioned that the uptick in exports was too modest to signal a broader recovery.

Brzeski noted that German export volumes remain below their pre-'Liberation Day' levels, and well under March 2025 figures.

He highlighted deeper structural shifts in Germany's export landscape, highlighting a declining share of trade with both the United States and China.

Exports to the US, despite a near 12% monthly rise in September, now account for just 9.5% of Germany's total exports — down from 10.5% a year earlier. China's share has dropped even more sharply to 5%, compared to nearly 8% in the pre-pandemic years.

Looking ahead, he warned that German exporters are still facing significant challenges.

"US tariffs are still weighing on exports and will probably only show their full impact over the coming months," Brzeski said, adding that it will take "a lot of imagination" to envision a near-term return of exports as a key engine of German growth.

Source: Yahoo Finance

Sterling was headed for its third straight weekly loss against the dollar and the euro on Friday as investors digested the Bank of England's rate decision and looked ahead to the government's budget later this month.

A narrow vote and signs that BoE Governor Andrew Bailey may soon join those favouring a cut have raised the odds of a December easing move.

The BoE held rates, disappointing the most dovish expectations after a minority of analysts had bet on a 25-basis-point cut.

MORE ROOM TO EASE IN 2026

Markets now expect the British government to unveil a significant fiscal tightening package in its Autumn Statement, creating more room for the BoE to ease further next year.

The greenback was on track for a modest weekly gain as investors weighed the Fed's hawkish tilt against lingering concerns over the U.S. economy.

Sterling fell 0.27% to $1.3105, set for a 0.50% weekly drop. It fell 1.1% last week and 0.90% the week before. Investors are betting on a December rate cut after Thursday's tight vote, with this month's budget likely to add volatility for the pound.

"We expect pound weakness to extend against the euro into year-end if slower inflation is confirmed in October and November," said Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG.

The euro rose 0.25% to 88.10 pence and was on track to end the week up 0.44%, after gains of 0.42% last week and 0.64% the week before.

"There is scope for lower short-term rates and a weaker pound," said Chris Turner, global head of forex strategy at ING, noting markets were not fully pricing a December cut.

"We expect the euro to find good support near 0.8760 and trade above 0.88 heading into the Budget later this month," he added.

Traders are pricing a 60% chance of a 25 bps BoE cut and 58 bps of easing by end-2026. British 2-year yields, more sensitive to expectations for policy rates, were up 1.5 bps at 4.11% on Friday, after falling 6.5 bps the day before.

Markets expect the European Central Bank's key policy rate to remain steady at 2% through early 2027.

Source: Investing