Bitcoin July Preview: History Says Don’t Trust The Quiet

Stablecoin issuer Circle has applied to establish a national trust bank in the United States that, among other duties, would oversee the firm’s USDC reserve on behalf of its US issuer.

If the application is approved by the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), Circle’s First National Digital Currency Bank would be authorized to operate as a federally regulated trust institution, Circle said in a statement on Monday.

Circles Digital Bank also hopes to strengthen the infrastructure that “supports the issuance and circulation” of USDC and offer digital asset custody services to institutional customers, the stablecoin issuer added.

Bitcoin price started trading in a range below the $108,800 zone. BTC is now consolidating and might aim for a move above the $108,000 resistance.

• Bitcoin started a downside correction from the $108,800 zone.
• The price is trading below $107,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
• There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $107,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
• The pair could start a fresh increase if it stays above the $105,500 zone.

Bitcoin Price Eyes Fresh Gains

Bitcoin price started a fresh increase above the $105,500 zone. BTC gained pace and was able to climb above the $106,500 and $107,200 levels to enter a positive zone.

The bulls pushed the price above the $108,000 resistance and the price tested the $108,800 zone. A high was formed at $108,792 and the price recently corrected gains. There was a move below the $107,500 level. A low was formed at $106,800 and the price is now consolidating losses.

There was a recovery above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $108,792 swing high to the $106,800 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $107,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.

On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $107,400 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $107,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The first key resistance is near the $108,000 level and the 50% Fib level of the downward move from the $108,792 swing high to the $106,800 low.

A close above the $108,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $108,800 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $110,000 level.

More Losses In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $108,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $106,800 level. The first major support is near the $106,500 level.

The next support is now near the $105,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $105,000 support in the near term. The main support sits at $103,500, below which BTC might gain bearish momentum.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $106,800, followed by $106,500.

Major Resistance Levels – $108,000 and $108,800.

On-chain data shows Dogecoin is the only cryptocurrency among the top 10 where investors are currently realizing more losses than profits.

Dogecoin Investors Realized $124 Million In Loss Over The Last 24 Hours

In a new post on X, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has shared how the major cryptocurrencies compare against each other in terms of the Realized Loss and Realized Profit metrics.

These indicators measure, as their names already imply, the amount of loss/profit that the investors on a given network are realizing through their transactions right now.

The metrics work by going through the transfer history of each coin being sold to see what price it was moved at prior to this. If this previous value is less than the price that the coin’s now being sold at, then the token’s sale is leading to profit realization. On the other hand, it being higher suggests loss realization.

The Realized Profit sums up the difference between the two prices involved in all sales of the former type, while the Realized Loss does the same for the latter ones.

Now, here is the table shared by the analytics firm that shows how the 24-hour values of the two metrics currently stack up for the top 10 coins by market cap:

As is visible above, the scale of the Realized Loss and Realized Profit differs greatly between the different assets, but one pattern is consistent: the latter outweighs the former, implying a trend of net profit-taking from the investors.

One asset, however, doesn’t fit the mold: Dogecoin. The 24-hour Realized Loss for the memecoin stands at around $132 million, while the Realized Profit is much lower with a value of just $5 million.

As such, it would appear that while the participants in the rest of the sector have been harvesting gains, DOGE holders have been panic capitulating at a loss instead.

Among these top coins, the investors of Bitcoin have realized the largest profit, with the indicator’s value sitting at a whopping $1.3 billion. The Realized Loss is also restricted to just $33 million for the number one cryptocurrency, indicating selling has been heavily lopsided toward profit-taking.

Things are more balanced for Ethereum, the digital asset ranked number two. Its Realized Loss of $18.4 million is roughly half that of its Realized Profit of $35.2 million.

The fact that profit realization is so dominant for the likes of Bitcoin, however, might actually be a bearish sign. Historically, such market conditions have made tops more likely. A dominance of loss-taking, on the other hand, can facilitate reversals to the upside. As such, while not a given, Dogecoin may not be in a bad position, at least in this regard.

DOGE Price

Dogecoin touched the $0.170 mark during the weekend, but the memecoin has seen a retrace under $0.165 to kick off the week.