XAU/USD Surges to Fresh Daily Highs Near $4,700 as Iran Ceasefire Reports Undercut the Greenback

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Summary:

Gold surged to fresh daily highs near $4,700 on Monday as ceasefire reports between the US and Iran briefly dented the safe-haven Dollar, drawing dip-buyers back into the yellow metal.

BUY XAUUSD

EXP

TRADING

4689.26

Entry Price

4850.00

4575.00

4653.29 -22.68 -0.49%

0.0

Pips

Flat

4575.00

Exit Price

4689.26

Entry Price

4850.00

Gold is pushing higher in Monday's European session, climbing to the vicinity of $4,700 per troy ounce and registering a fresh intraday peak as a swirl of competing forces pulls the precious metal in multiple directions simultaneously. It is the kind of market environment that tests the resolve of both bulls and bears — one where the fundamental picture shifts hour by hour, and where a single headline can undo an entire session's worth of directional momentum. Having tracked this market closely through weeks of extraordinary geopolitical turbulence, I can say with confidence that Monday's price action is among the most technically and fundamentally complex sessions Gold has traded in recent memory.

The catalyst igniting the early bid came courtesy of Bloomberg, citing a report from Axios, which revealed that the United States, Iran, and regional mediators are actively discussing the terms of a possible 45-day ceasefire arrangement — one that, if formalized, could represent the first meaningful pathway toward ending a conflict that has convulsed energy markets, shattered risk appetite, and driven safe-haven assets to multi-year highs. The mere suggestion of a ceasefire framework was enough to put the US Dollar on the defensive, with the Greenback retreating from its recent highs as some of the war-risk premium that has been embedded into currency markets began to unwind. A softer Dollar is, of course, directly constructive for Gold — the two assets share a well-established inverse relationship, and any meaningful Dollar weakness tends to make the metal more attractive to international buyers holding non-Dollar currencies.

The dip-buying that emerged around the $4,600 mark was swift and decisive, a signal that there remains an enormous weight of demand waiting patiently on the sidelines for pullback opportunities. Gold had already staged a remarkable recovery from its four-month lows near $4,100 touched in March — a rebound of approximately $600, or nearly 15%, in just a matter of weeks — and the speed of that recovery speaks to the depth of structural demand for the metal in this geopolitical environment. Institutional investors, central banks, and retail participants alike have been drawn to Gold as the conflict has dragged on, and each attempt to push price lower has been met with fresh buying interest that reasserts the uptrend.

Yet for all the bullish energy driving Gold higher this morning, there are formidable headwinds that make a clean, uninterrupted rally toward new highs unlikely. And this is where I want to offer a direct assessment rather than simply cataloguing the news flow: Gold is caught in a genuine fundamental conflict right now, and the resolution of that conflict — one way or the other — will define the trajectory of the metal for weeks to come.

On one side of the equation sits the ceasefire narrative, which, if it gains traction, would reduce safe-haven demand for both Gold and the Dollar, potentially triggering a rotation back into risk assets. On the other sits an inflation and interest rate dynamic that is growing increasingly hostile to non-yielding assets. Crude Oil prices advanced to a nearly four-week high on Monday after President Trump issued a stark new ultimatum, threatening to target Iranian power plants and bridges if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by Tuesday. The ultimatum raises the prospect of a dramatic escalation in the conflict's scope, with potentially catastrophic consequences for global energy infrastructure.

Iran, for its part, showed no sign of backing down. Tehran outlined a new condition for resuming transit through the Hormuz chokepoint, insisting that a portion of shipping revenues must be allocated to compensate Iran for war-related damages — a demand that strikes most Western analysts as a non-starter in the current diplomatic climate. More alarmingly, Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior advisor to Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, issued a chilling warning that the resistance front could extend its disruptive campaign to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea — a second critical global chokepoint through which enormous volumes of Europe-bound trade and energy flows pass. If that threat is acted upon, the implications for global supply chains and energy markets would be devastating, adding another layer of commodity price inflation on top of an already severe energy shock.

This is precisely the inflationary cocktail that central banks most dread — and that most directly complicates the investment case for Gold. Higher energy prices feed into headline inflation with a lag that is well understood but difficult to manage in real time. Investors are increasingly convinced that the war-driven surge in energy costs will revive inflationary pressures that major central banks had only recently begun to bring under control, forcing the Federal Reserve and its peers to abandon any remaining appetite for rate cuts and potentially pivot toward additional tightening. That is a deeply problematic backdrop for a non-yielding asset like Gold, which offers no income return and becomes relatively less attractive as interest rates rise.

The US Nonfarm Payrolls report released on Friday reinforced this narrative with uncomfortable precision. The data signaled a still-resilient labor market, defying expectations of a significant softening and boosting speculation that the Fed will hold rates at elevated levels for longer than previously anticipated. A hawkish Fed means a stronger Dollar over time — and a stronger Dollar means persistent headwinds for Gold, even in a geopolitically charged environment. The interplay between these two forces — geopolitical safe-haven demand pulling Gold higher and rate expectations pulling it lower — is the defining tension in this market right now.

Technical Analysis

Gold is navigating a structurally pivotal moment on the 4-hour chart, with price trading at $4,689.07 and pressing directly against the $4,700 horizontal resistance level that has defined the ceiling of the recent recovery phase. The broader chart tells a story of dramatic extremes — a collapse from the $5,040 highs on March 17–18 all the way down to the $4,240 lows by March 23–24, a near $800 decline in a matter of days, followed by a methodical and increasingly structured recovery that has now restored price to a critical technical crossroads.

The most important development on this chart is the emergence of a well-defined ascending trendline originating from the March 23 lows near $4,240. This trendline has provided dynamic support on every meaningful pullback during the recovery phase, and it continues to slope upward with impressive consistency, currently intersecting price action around the $4,600–$4,620 area. The presence of this trendline, combined with the major horizontal support band between $4,590 and $4,620 — a zone that held as a floor during the April 2 sharp intraday selloff and produced a swift recovery — creates a powerful confluence of technical support directly beneath current price. This layered support structure is one of the most technically significant features on the chart and is the primary reason the bullish recovery bias remains intact.

The 9-period EMA, currently at $4,608, and the 21-period SMA, sitting at $4,646, have both turned higher after weeks of steep downward slope and are now tracking beneath price in a nascent bullish configuration. The fact that price has reclaimed both moving averages from below — and is holding above them on a closing basis — represents a meaningful shift in short-term momentum. These averages now define the dynamic support corridor on any near-term dip, with the $4,646 SMA serving as the first line of defense and the $4,608 EMA as the secondary layer before the critical $4,600 horizontal zone comes into play.

The $4,700 resistance level, marked by the prominent dotted horizontal line on the chart, is the immediate obstacle standing between current price and a more aggressive bullish continuation. This level has acted as a pivot zone multiple times across the chart's recent history, capping the April 1–2 rally and triggering the sharp intraday reversal that drove price briefly back toward the $4,600 support floor. A clean 4-hour close above $4,700 — sustained through at least one subsequent candle — would be the technical confirmation signal that this resistance has been absorbed and that the recovery is ready to enter its next leg higher. The measured move projection drawn on the chart targets the $4,840 area as an intermediate objective, before the more significant $4,800 horizontal resistance ceiling comes into focus. Beyond $4,800, the path extends toward the $5,000 psychological level and ultimately a retest of the $5,040 March highs — an ambitious but technically justified target if the ascending trendline structure remains intact.

On the downside, the $4,600 support band is the defining line in the sand for the near-term bullish thesis. A sustained 4-hour close below $4,600, particularly if accompanied by a break of the ascending trendline, would be a technically significant deterioration that signals the recovery from the $4,240 lows has exhausted itself. In that scenario, the next meaningful support rests at the $4,480–$4,500 area, where multiple consolidation attempts took place during the late March recovery phase. A failure there would expose the $4,240–$4,260 swing lows, and a break below that region would mark a complete structural breakdown and signal a resumption of the broader downtrend from the $5,040 peaks.

The projected path annotated on the chart — showing a brief consolidation or mild pullback near the $4,720–$4,740 zone before a sustained push toward $5,040 — aligns with the broader technical structure. A healthy retest of the $4,700 breakout level before the next leg higher would provide the market with a cleaner foundation for a sustained advance and is the scenario most consistent with the ascending trendline support dynamic currently in play.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD (XAU/USD)

ENTRY PRICE: $4,689.00

STOP LOSS: $4,575.00

TAKE PROFIT: $4,850.00

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XAU/USD Surges to Fresh Daily Highs Near $4,700 as Iran Ceasefire Reports Undercut the Greenback

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