XAU/USD Gains 1.2% Amid Global Equity Market Uncertainty

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

Gold rebounds toward $4,155 as falling Treasury yields and a weaker Dollar support safe-haven demand. However, persistent US inflation and expectations of additional Fed rate hikes could limit further gains.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4150.05

Entry Price

4305.00

4070.00

4183.11 +11.91 +0.29%

104.5

Pips

Profit

4070.00

4160.50

Exit Price

4150.05

Entry Price

4305.00

Gold prices advanced on Thursday as a sharp decline in US Treasury yields and renewed weakness in the US Dollar encouraged investors to return to the precious metal. XAU/USD climbed approximately 1.21% to trade near $4,155, supported by growing uncertainty across global equity markets amid concerns surrounding artificial intelligence-related investments.

The deterioration in market sentiment has increased demand for traditional safe-haven assets, particularly Gold and government bonds. The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield declined by approximately seven basis points to 5.08%, its lowest level in three weeks. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index retreated toward 102.00 after reaching a fresh yearly high of 102.94 during the previous session.

Lower bond yields have provided immediate relief for Gold, reducing the opportunity cost of holding an asset that offers no interest income. The Dollar's retreat has also improved the metal's appeal, allowing buyers to regain some control following the recent selling pressure.

However, the recovery faces significant challenges from the Federal Reserve's increasingly restrictive monetary policy outlook.

Wednesday's US inflation figures reinforced concerns that price pressures remain persistent. Headline consumer inflation accelerated to 3.7% annually in September, its strongest reading in five months, while monthly inflation increased 0.6%, largely reflecting higher fuel costs. Core inflation also advanced 0.3% on the month.

According to Commerzbank, futures markets now assign approximately a 32% probability to a 25-basis-point Fed rate increase in October. Investors are also pricing in cumulative tightening of 29 basis points by the end of 2026 and 75 basis points by the end of 2027.

Despite these expectations, an October rate hike remains less likely than a pause. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly recently acknowledged that additional tightening may be necessary but emphasized that the timing remains uncertain. Similar caution from New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson suggests policymakers may prefer to assess incoming economic data before making another move.

Gold's near-term outlook therefore depends heavily on whether the decline in Treasury yields and the Dollar can be sustained. Continued weakness in both could support an extension of the recovery, while renewed expectations of aggressive Fed tightening would likely limit upside momentum.

Investors will now turn their attention to US Producer Price Index figures, Retail Sales and weekly Initial Jobless Claims for further indications of inflation trends, economic resilience and the Fed's next policy decision.

Technical Analysis

Gold is showing early signs of a bullish recovery on the 4-hour chart, with prices rebounding sharply from the $4,080 region and reclaiming the important 4,110–4,120 support zone. Although the broader market structure remains under pressure following the decline from September highs, the latest recovery suggests that buyers are attempting to establish a foundation for another upward move. XAU/USD is currently trading around $4,150, where price action is consolidating after its recent rebound.

The 4,110–4,120 demand zone remains particularly important, having repeatedly attracted buying interest during previous declines. The latest recovery from below this region reinforces its significance as a potential base for further gains. However, the immediate challenge for buyers is to establish sustained momentum above $4,160, which could open the way toward the next resistance area at 4,215–4,225.

A decisive breakout above $4,225 would strengthen the bullish recovery and expose the higher resistance zone around 4,305–4,315. Clearing this barrier would represent a more meaningful improvement in market structure, potentially encouraging an extended advance toward $4,350 and subsequently $4,375.

The projected price structure suggests that Gold could experience another brief correction toward 4,130–4,140 before resuming its upward movement. Such a pullback would not necessarily undermine the recovery, provided buyers continue defending the broader $4,110 support region.

Conversely, a sustained break below $4,110 would weaken the bullish outlook and expose the recent lows around $4,080. Until that happens, the developing recovery favours a gradual shift toward higher prices, although confirmation above the nearby resistance levels remains essential.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: $4,150

STOP LOSS: $4,070

TAKE PROFIT: $4,305

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