WTI Rallies as Hormuz Supply Fears Intensify

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

WTI holds around 1.6% higher near $77.55 as uncertainty over reopening the Strait of Hormuz intensifies supply concerns. Fresh tensions involving Iran and the Houthis are adding to oil’s geopolitical risk premium.

BUY WTI

EXP

TRADING

78.409

Entry Price

84.200

75.000

79.957 +3.618 +4.74%

0.0

Pips

Flat

75.000

Exit Price

78.409

Entry Price

84.200

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil remains firmly higher around $77.55 during Monday’s European session, despite retreating from its intraday peak. The US benchmark is up roughly 1.6% as renewed uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz raises concerns about prolonged disruption to global energy supplies.

Oil prices received fresh support after Iran reportedly introduced new conditions for reopening the strategically important waterway, which handles close to 20% of global energy supplies.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran wants reparations from the United States for damage caused during the conflict before navigation through Hormuz is restored. Iranian officials have also demanded an end to US threats and attacks, withdrawal of American military forces from around Iran, sanctions relief and the release of frozen Iranian assets.

These conditions have reduced expectations for a quick resolution and increased the possibility that disruptions could persist.

Further support for crude came from renewed regional tensions after Iran-aligned Houthis said they targeted an Aramco refinery in Jazan, Saudi Arabia, with a drone. Any escalation involving Saudi energy infrastructure would further increase concerns about supply security across the region.

The geopolitical risk premium is likely to remain embedded in oil prices as long as Hormuz remains uncertain. Progress between Washington and Tehran could quickly pressure WTI lower, but prolonged negotiations or additional attacks on energy infrastructure could keep prices elevated and potentially fuel another leg higher.

Technical Analysis

WTI crude oil is strengthening its short-term bullish structure on the 1-hour chart, with prices recovering sharply from the $73.50 region and now trading around $78.45. The latest advance has pushed WTI above the important $77.80–$78.20 resistance zone, which had previously limited upside attempts. Holding above this area would strengthen the case that former resistance is turning into support.

The immediate focus is now on $79.00. A sustained push above this level could accelerate the recovery toward the major $81.60–$82.00 resistance zone. A successful breakout there would represent a much stronger bullish confirmation and expose $84.20–$84.50, where previous rallies repeatedly encountered heavy selling pressure.

On the downside, $77.80 remains the key near-term support. A break back below this region could trigger a pullback toward $75.60–$75.90. However, the bullish structure remains intact while prices stay above this area, with the stronger floor located around $73.40–$73.70.

Overall, WTI remains technically bullish following the breakout above $78.00. In my view, holding above $77.80 favors continuation toward $82.00, with $84.20–$84.50 becoming the broader upside target.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY WTI

ENTRY PRICE: $78.20

STOP LOSS: $75.00

TAKE PROFIT: $84.20

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WTI Rallies as Hormuz Supply Fears Intensify

Technical Analysis

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