During the weekend, geopolitical tensions escalated sharply. Reports indicate that the U.S. and Israel announced the completion of "major combat operations" targeting senior leadership across multiple fronts in Iran. The White House stated that the military operation is expected to last approximately four weeks, aiming to eliminate threats from Iran completely. It claimed that 48 Iranian commanders were killed in the strikes, and nine Iranian naval vessels were destroyed or sunk. Israeli warplanes currently maintain air superiority over Tehran, continuing attacks on targets including missile launchers, air defense systems, and command centers. In response, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a stern warning, stating that if its oil and gas facilities are attacked, it will retaliate in kind and completely destroy the oil and gas infrastructure of all countries in the region. The situation has entered a so-called "no-red-line" retaliation phase, with a significant risk of conflict escalation. As the conflict between the U.S.-Israel alliance and Iran expands, Iran has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, triggering intense concerns in global energy markets. Major global shipping companies, including Maersk, MSC, and Hapag-Lloyd, have successively announced plans to avoid the Persian Gulf and suspend transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, tanker speeds around the strait have generally dropped to zero, effectively paralyzing maritime shipping. Given that the strait handles approximately 14 million barrels of crude oil exports daily—accounting for about 31% of global seaborne oil trade—this shutdown has been described by the German Shipowners' Association as an "acute operational crisis" for the shipping industry. A prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would directly impact global crude oil supplies, reignite inflationary pressures worldwide, and potentially force central banks to reassess their future monetary policy paths, providing new macro-driven momentum for the precious metals market. Capital flows and institutional positioning data offer another dimension for market analysis. According to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as of the week ending February 24, 2026, speculative net long positions in gold increased from 96,100 contracts to 99,900 contracts, indicating stronger bullish sentiment among speculative funds. During the same period, net short positions held by producers and merchants expanded from 22,500 contracts to 24,900 contracts, reflecting increased hedging demand from industrial capital. In the silver market, speculative net long positions rose from 6,160 contracts to 7,981 contracts, also signaling warming bullish sentiment; meanwhile, net short positions held by producers and merchants slightly expanded from 16,600 contracts to 16,700 contracts.

The U.S. dollar has strengthened significantly due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as investors seek safe havens, with the dollar demonstrating a "cash-is-king" dominance. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the final demand producer price index (PPI) rose 0.5% in January—nearly double the market consensus forecast of 0.3%—while December's increase was revised downward to 0.4%. Year-over-year PPI also climbed 2.9%. Although most gains came from trade services (which the BLS noted are volatile and do not reflect real-time price changes), the overall message is clear: wholesale price pressures have not cooled as quickly as markets anticipated. This data directly impacts the Federal Reserve's preferred personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index and may reinforce the Fed's cautious stance after keeping rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in January. Minutes from the January meeting revealed divisions among officials, with several participants discussing the possibility of rate hikes if inflation remains persistently above target. This week will see the release of key U.S. macroeconomic data, all scheduled for the start of the month: first, the ISM Manufacturing PMI later today; then, the ADP private sector employment report and ISM Services PMI on Wednesday; and finally, the closely watched nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.

Based on the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are expanding upward, and moving averages are diverging higher to confirm the intact uptrend. However, prices have once again approached the 5400 level, entering a short-term consolidation range. If prices fail to hold above 5400, they may retreat toward 5100; conversely, holding above 5400 could drive prices toward 5500 and 5600. After forming a golden cross, the upward momentum has weakened somewhat. The RSI stands at 78, placing it in overbought territory, with market participants predominantly adopting a buying bias. From a daily perspective, prices have touched the Bollinger Upper Band and faced resistance, with no confirmation yet of a renewed uptrend. While the MACD forms a golden cross, weakening upward momentum is one bearish signal. The RSI is at 64, maintaining optimistic market sentiment. Thus, it is better to follow a long-then-short strategy.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry Price: 5410

Target Price: 4300

Stop Loss: 5700

Support: 4500/4300/4100

Resistance: 5400/5500/5600