Triangle Breakout Achieved: Is Gold Heading Straight for $4,000?

Tank

Economic

Commodity

Forex

Technical Analysis

Summary:

The ISM Manufacturing PMI for August is expected to rise from July's 48 to 49, still indicating a contraction. Disappointing data may trigger renewed selling pressure on the U.S. dollar, thereby sustaining gold's record-breaking rally.

BUY XAUUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

3435.00

Entry Price

3550.00

3380.00

4446.15 -48.49 -1.08%

Pips

EXPIRED

3380.00

3670.99

Exit Price

3435.00

Entry Price

3550.00

Fundamentals

The ISM Manufacturing PMI for August is expected to rise from July's 48 to 49, still indicating a contraction. Given the potential for disappointing data, the U.S. dollar could face fresh selling pressure, which would help maintain gold's historic upward momentum. Additionally, U.S. President Donald Trump continues his efforts to appoint more dovish officials to the Federal Reserve, while ongoing concerns about the central bank’s independence continue to weigh on the U.S. dollar but support gold. Meanwhile, geopolitical developments between Russia and Ukraine also remain in focus, bolstering demand for traditional safe-haven assets like gold. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated on Sunday that, following weeks of intense strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, Ukraine plans to launch new attacks on the Russian hinterland. Last week, Trump expressed deep disappointment, particularly in light of his recent attempts to mediate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war.

The U.S. dollar saw a broad-based short-covering rebound from over one-month lows, driven by profit-taking as traders squared positions ahead of key U.S. business surveys and employment data due this week. With market speculation growing over a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI has also become a focal point. The likelihood of a 25-bps rate cut in September is now fully priced in, with the CME Group's FedWatch Tool showing a probability as high as 90%.

Technical Analysis

Based on the one-hour chart, gold broke above the Bollinger Upper Band but encountered resistance and pulled back. It is currently finding support near the Bollinger Middle Band and consolidating. The MACD shows weakening bullish momentum, even as prices are making new highs. Meanwhile, the RSI is forming lower highs (a sign of bearish divergence), suggesting a greater probability of a short-term correction. Key support lies around the EMA50, near the $3,460 level. Regarding the daily chart, after breaking above the upper boundary of the triangle pattern, gold has been rallying strongly along the Bollinger Upper Band. Currently, the Bollinger Bands are expanding upwards, with moving averages sloping upward. The MACD forms a golden cross, and the RSI stands at 70, entering overbought territory. Overall, the price may retest the upper edge of the triangle before breaking out again to the upside. Thus, investors should buy the dips.

Triangle Breakout Achieved: Is Gold Heading Straight for $4,000?_1

Triangle Breakout Achieved: Is Gold Heading Straight for $4,000?_2

Trading Recommendations:

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 3435

Target price: 3550

Stop loss: 3380

Support: 3460/3430/3406

Resistance: 3500/3550/3600

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The Australian dollar surged against the U.S. dollar on Monday, trading near 0.6560 as markets increasingly priced in the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month.

BUY AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.65500

Entry Price

0.66000

0.65100

0.67277 -0.00069 -0.10%

40.0

Pips

Loss

0.65100

Exit Price

0.65500

Entry Price

0.66000

The Australian dollar pushed higher on Monday, extending its recent gains against the U.S. dollar as traders positioned themselves ahead of a potentially dovish shift from the Federal Reserve. During the European trading session, the AUD/USD pair advanced sharply to trade near 0.6560, its strongest level in several weeks, supported by broad-based weakness in the greenback and resilient demand for commodity-linked currencies.

At the same time, the U.S. Dollar Index fell to 97.55, touching its lowest level in a month. The index, which measures the dollar’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, has been under persistent pressure in recent days as investors increasingly anticipate that the Federal Reserve could move toward rate cuts at its upcoming policy meeting. Weaker U.S. economic data has already begun to tilt market expectations in favor of monetary easing, and the dollar has struggled to find meaningful support as a result.

Market participants noted that the greenback’s decline is broad-based, with higher-yielding and risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar capturing outsized benefits. Traders argue that the Aussie, supported by stable commodity demand and relative resilience in Chinese import activity, is well-positioned to ride the current wave of dollar softness. However, the rally also carries vulnerabilities, particularly if the Fed fails to deliver on the aggressive easing path currently priced into money markets.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD chart is increasingly favorable to the bulls. The pair has been carving out an ascending triangle formation on the four-hour timeframe, a structure that typically signals consolidation before a breakout to the upside. This bullish configuration has been reinforced by a series of structural changes in recent sessions, including several instances of break-of-structure and change-of-character confirmations, which have tilted momentum firmly in favor of continued buying interest.

The immediate area of support now lies around 0.6400, with a broader support zone between 0.6450 and 0.6470 that has consistently attracted demand during recent pullbacks. On the upside, we are now watching the 0.6600 level as the next major resistance area, a psychological threshold that could determine whether momentum extends further in the coming sessions. Importantly, the pair has already broken through a descending trendline that previously capped gains, signaling that a bullish continuation is possible if price action holds steady above 0.6500. A retest of the breakout area could provide traders with a potential platform to re-enter long positions, particularly if buying activity intensifies on dips.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY AUDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.6550

STOP LOSS: 0.65100

TAKE PROFIT: 0.6600

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The euro climbed toward a one-week high against the U.S. dollar on Monday as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts weighed on the greenback.

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.17203

Entry Price

1.19000

1.16500

1.16881 0.00000 0.00%

22.6

Pips

Profit

1.16500

1.17429

Exit Price

1.17203

Entry Price

1.19000

The euro extended its advance on Monday, with EUR/USD approaching a one-week high near 1.1730 during the European session. The common currency’s strength came as the U.S. dollar continued to underperform its peers, pressured by mounting expectations that the Federal Reserve will resume monetary easing as soon as September.

At the time of writing, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)—a benchmark tracking the greenback’s value against six major currencies—was hovering close to its August low around 97.55. This decline reflects broad investor sentiment that the Fed may struggle to maintain its current stance in the face of rising economic risks.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are assigning an 87.6% probability that the Fed will lower its benchmark rate by 25 basis points at its upcoming September meeting. Such odds underscore how decisively sentiment has shifted in recent weeks, as softer economic data and growing labor market concerns reinforce a dovish outlook for U.S. monetary policy.

The move comes against the backdrop of fresh tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, which investors fear could exacerbate labor market strains. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have signaled unease about these risks, emphasizing the potential drag on hiring and broader economic momentum.

“The combination of weaker job creation, tariff-related disruptions, and ongoing uncertainty over global demand continues to challenge the U.S. growth outlook,” said one analyst at a European investment bank. “Markets are increasingly convinced the Fed will have no choice but to ease.”

Investors will gain more clarity this week from a series of key labor market releases, including the JOLTS Job Openings report for July, ADP’s private-sector employment survey, and the closely watched August Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. These datasets will provide crucial insight into whether labor market weakness is worsening enough to force the Fed’s hand.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD is consolidating its recent rebound after bouncing strongly from support around the 1.1700 handle. The pair’s ability to hold above that threshold has reinforced bullish sentiment, particularly as price action respects an ascending trendline that has defined the short-term uptrend.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) continues to provide an underlying floor, with recent intraday closes above it confirming the pair’s resilience. Momentum indicators are also constructive; the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reset from overbought territory, leaving room for further upside without the immediate risk of exhaustion.

As long as EUR/USD remains above the 1.1700 level, the bullish bias appears intact. Traders are watching for a possible extension toward the next resistance zone near 1.1850. A sustained move beyond that level could open the door to a test of 1.1900, while failure to hold above current support could invite renewed selling pressure.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.17190

STOP LOSS: 1.16500

TAKE PROFIT: 1.1900

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The Swiss Franc extended its rally to a fourth straight day on Friday, with USD/CHF sliding toward the 0.8000 handle as traders bet on a September Fed rate cut despite sticky US inflation.

SELL USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.79965

Entry Price

0.79000

0.81030

0.79663 +0.00119 +0.15%

27.9

Pips

Profit

0.79000

0.79686

Exit Price

0.79965

Entry Price

0.81030

The Swiss Franc strengthened for a fourth consecutive session on Friday, pushing the USD/CHF exchange rate closer to the psychologically significant 0.8000 mark as investors increasingly price in a September interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve and seek shelter amid growing political and policy uncertainty in Washington.

In late New York trade, USD/CHF was hovering around 0.7997, retreating from early intraday gains and marking fresh one-month lows. The pair’s decline closely mirrored the US Dollar Index (DXY), which slipped back below 98.00 to 97.76, underscoring a broader softening in the Greenback’s momentum.

The move comes despite US data that—at first glance—suggested economic resilience. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.3% month-on-month in July, matching consensus forecasts. On an annual basis, core PCE accelerated to 2.9%, its highest level since February, from 2.8% in June. Headline inflation was more subdued, holding at 2.6% year-on-year with a modest 0.2% monthly increase.

Household demand appeared equally firm, with personal spending rising 0.5% in July, up from 0.3% in June, while personal income increased 0.4% month-on-month. Taken together, the data painted a picture of sticky inflation accompanied by robust consumer activity—a mix that in another market environment might have lifted the Dollar on expectations of a more hawkish Fed.

Yet traders largely ignored the stronger demand backdrop, focusing instead on the policy outlook. Fed funds futures are now pricing an 89% probability of a 25 basis-point cut at the September FOMC meeting, cementing expectations that the central bank will move toward easing after holding rates steady since May. Yields on the front end of the Treasury curve slipped as investors positioned for a policy shift, though longer-dated yields were steadier, reflecting confidence that long-run inflation risks remain contained.

Adding to the Dollar’s vulnerability was intensifying political tension surrounding the independence of the Fed. The legal dispute between President Donald Trump and Fed Governor Lisa Cook escalated this week, with Cook filing an emergency motion to block her removal after Trump attempted to oust her. The Fed submitted its own brief in the case Friday, while the Justice Department signaled it would not oppose converting Cook’s request into a preliminary injunction. Legal experts note that the battle hinges on the interpretation of “for cause” under the Federal Reserve Act, a term traditionally associated with misconduct but now potentially subject to broader interpretation. Market observers warn the case could ultimately find its way to the Supreme Court, raising fresh uncertainty about the Fed’s autonomy.

Against this backdrop, the Swiss Franc has been a prime beneficiary. Long regarded as a safe-haven currency, the Franc’s appeal has been reinforced by both macroeconomic and political risks that undermine the Greenback. Ongoing trade frictions, questions about US institutional stability, and the dovish recalibration of Fed expectations have driven investors toward the security of the Swissie.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, USD/CHF remains under pronounced bearish pressure, with the pair breaking through key support at 0.8020. The move places the pair firmly below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), reinforcing the dominance of the corrective downtrend on the short-term charts. The broader bearish structure remains intact, with the pair trending alongside a supportive channel that favors additional downside.

However, momentum indicators suggest near-term caution for bears. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered oversold territory, flashing early positive signals that could prompt a temporary pause or modest rebound in losses.

Still, technical setups highlight further downside risk. The current sell entry is pegged at 0.8030, aligning with a pullback resistance and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A stop loss is recommended near 0.8100, coinciding with a swing high and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension. On the downside, the take-profit target lies at 0.7900, which aligns with a Fibonacci extension support zone around 161.8%.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL USDCHF

ENTRY PRICE: 0.8000

STOP LOSS: 0.8100

TAKE PROFIT: 0.7900

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Central Bank

Forex

Summary:

The Dollar Index slid roughly 2% in August, as both technical and fundamental indicators point to additional downside.

SELL USDX

Close Time

CLOSED

97.670

Entry Price

95.100

99.980

98.300 +0.010 +0.01%

41.0

Pips

Profit

95.100

97.260

Exit Price

97.670

Entry Price

99.980

Fundamentals

The U.S. Dollar Index shed about 2% last month, erasing a portion of July's advance—the first monthly gain since President Donald Trump took office. With the economy flashing slowdown signals and the Fed poised to resume monetary easing, the greenback is on track to extend its year-to-date retreat of more than 8%.

President Trump's public questioning of the Fed's credibility and the reliability of official data is further undercutting the dollar's allure. Recent policy moves by the U.S. administration are also sowing doubts over the currency's long-term standing, eroding its safe-haven premium and paving the way for a persistent risk discount.

Options Market Wagers on Further Dollar Weakness Over Next 3–6 Months_1

Technical Analysis

After three consecutive down-days, the Dollar Index has attempted a modest rebound, trading near 98.00 in European hours on Friday.

On the daily chart, the mild bearish momentum remains intact, with the RSI continuing to track lower. During this period, downside risks dominate. The support is 97.60, followed by 97.10. And the Resistances are 98.40 (MA21), 98.80 (MA100), and 99.60.

Thursday's options pricing shows investors pricing in a modest depreciation over the next three to six months. The index broke below its MA100 in early March and has remained pressured ever since. Two failed attempts to reclaim the average this month have reinforced 98.80 as a key cap.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 98.00

Target Price: 95.10

Stop Loss: 99.98

Valid Until: September 13, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 97.60/97.10/96.38

Resistance: 98.40/98.80/99.60

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The Australian dollar climbed toward 0.6530 on Thursday as the US dollar sold off sharply, with markets growing confident that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September.

BUY AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.65371

Entry Price

0.66000

0.65000

0.67277 -0.00069 -0.10%

7.4

Pips

Profit

0.65000

0.65445

Exit Price

0.65371

Entry Price

0.66000

The Australian dollar strengthened against its US counterpart on Thursday, pushing toward the 0.6530 level in the European session, as the greenback came under broad selling pressure amid mounting speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as early as September.

The move comes as traders position for a dovish turn by the Fed, with US economic data increasingly signaling that growth momentum is fading. At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major peers, slipped toward 97.90. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, futures markets are now pricing in an 87% probability that the Fed will lower its benchmark rate at its September meeting.

That level of conviction suggests investors see the Fed pivoting away from its aggressive stance to prevent the economy from tipping into a deeper slowdown.

Markets were bolstered further on Wednesday when New York Fed President John Williams hinted at the likelihood of rate reductions in the months ahead. While Williams stopped short of endorsing a September cut outright, his comments underscored growing concerns that the US economy’s slowdown warrants a more accommodative policy stance.

“The Fed doesn’t want to wait too long before supporting growth,” one trader in London said. “The risk is that if they wait, the slowdown could accelerate into something more difficult to contain.”

Still, Williams stressed that policymakers need more data before finalizing their decision. That puts Friday’s release of the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index firmly in focus. The PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and a softer print could strengthen the case for September easing.

The bullish tone in the Aussie was amplified by domestic economic developments. On Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that consumer prices rose more than expected in July. The Monthly CPI increased at an annual pace of 2.8%, outpacing forecasts of 2.3% and accelerating sharply from June’s 1.9%.

The upside surprise complicates the outlook for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Markets had been pricing in a possible rate cut at the central bank’s September meeting, but the latest data challenges that assumption. Inflation above expectations suggests underlying price pressures remain sticky, potentially limiting the RBA’s ability to ease policy without risking a rebound in consumer prices.

Investors now find themselves weighing a dovish Fed against a potentially cautious RBA. That divergence in policy expectations is likely to keep the Aussie underpinned in the near term, particularly if US data continues to reinforce the need for Fed cuts.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair has extended its bullish momentum, with price action firmly supported by short-term correctional waves. The pair recently broke above resistance at 0.6535, a level now serving as a key target for bulls.

Momentum indicators reinforce the upside bias. The pair trades comfortably above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), signaling dynamic support beneath current levels. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows sustained bullish momentum, though it has entered overbought territory—suggesting that while the trend remains positive, some short-term consolidation cannot be ruled out.

If the bullish momentum continues, the next upside levels to watch lie near 0.6560 and 0.6600. On the downside, initial support sits around 0.6480, followed by stronger buying interest near 0.6450.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY AUDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.6537

STOP LOSS: 0.6500

TAKE PROFIT: 0.6600

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

Gold slipped on Friday from a one-month high as investors awaited U.S. PCE inflation data, but the metal remains set for strong monthly gains.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3415.00

Entry Price

3450.00

3395.00

4446.15 -48.49 -1.08%

187.9

Pips

Profit

3395.00

3433.79

Exit Price

3415.00

Entry Price

3450.00

Gold prices edged lower on Friday, retreating slightly from their strongest level in more than a month as traders locked in profits and repositioned ahead of the release of critical U.S. inflation data. Despite the modest decline, the yellow metal remains firmly within a bullish trend, supported by softer dollar expectations, policy uncertainty, and enduring geopolitical risks.

In the European session, spot gold was last seen trading near $3,407 per ounce, down around 0.30% on the day. The pullback followed a rally to levels not seen since July 23 during Thursday’s session, when investors pushed the precious metal higher on expectations that the Federal Reserve is drawing closer to cutting interest rates as soon as September. Month-end profit-taking has since weighed on sentiment, though the broader uptrend remains intact.

The main driver of caution in Friday’s trade is anticipation of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis report on the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. The July release is expected to show a 0.3% monthly rise, matching June’s pace, while the annual rate is projected to inch higher to 2.9% from 2.8% previously. Traders are bracing for a potentially market-moving outcome. A weaker-than-expected reading would likely reinforce expectations for a September rate cut, providing fresh support to gold. By contrast, a stronger number could temper dovish speculation, boost Treasury yields, and offer the U.S. dollar a renewed lift, thereby applying downward pressure on bullion.

Market strategists have warned that Friday’s PCE release could trigger sharp, immediate swings in gold prices. A London-based metals strategist noted that while a higher-than-expected print could send gold lower in the short run, the broader trend remains intact because of the Fed’s shifting stance and the ongoing demand for safe-haven assets. “If inflation looks sticky, we might see a knee-jerk selloff in gold,” the strategist said. “But the broader uptrend remains hard to dismiss given the policy backdrop and geopolitical noise.”

Beyond the immediate impact of inflation data, gold’s safe-haven allure continues to strengthen. Investors are increasingly concerned about the independence of the Federal Reserve, with political interventions raising questions about whether the central bank can act free of external pressures. Such concerns tend to elevate gold’s role as a hedge against policy uncertainty. This comes alongside persistent global risks, including geopolitical flashpoints, uneven U.S. growth dynamics, and fragile confidence in parts of the global economy. These factors have combined to ensure that dips in gold remain shallow and often attract strong buying interest.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the market still carries a clear bullish tone. Gold has stabilized above the $3,402 level, which traders view as a critical support area. The rally that began earlier this month remains intact, with buyers continuing to press toward higher resistance levels. The next significant upside level is seen around $3,429, and momentum is expected to remain constructive so long as the price holds above the recent support base. Short-term pullbacks, including a possible correction back to the $3,402 level, are considered likely to be temporary in nature. If the PCE data meets or undershoots expectations, bullish momentum is expected to resume quickly, potentially propelling the metal toward $3,420 and then on to $3,436 and $3,450.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3415

STOP LOSS: 3395

TAKE PROFIT: 3450

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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