Robust UST Yields Cap Gold Ahead of Fed Easing Cues

Eva Chen

Summary:

Gold's drive toward the 4000 threshold gains momentum, but robust Treasury yields pose a countervailing force.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4010.14

Entry Price

4146.00

3939.00

4675.06 +7.18 +0.15%

1358.6

Pips

Profit

3939.00

4146.03

Exit Price

4010.14

Entry Price

4146.00

Fundamentals

Following Tuesday's sell-off, spot gold has clawed its way back into the 3980–3990 band, but momentum still looks insufficient to challenge the psychological 4000 barrier.

From a macro perspective, the key repricing now underway in fixed-income markets deserves close attention. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield spiked to 4.16% yesterday, recording a one-month high. A further move toward the 4.21% level would likely keep the dollar bid and continue to weigh on bullion sentiment. Bonds are clearly trading a narrative of their own. Recent U.S. private-sector data that modestly topped consensus could still sway the Fed's December decision.

The market is currently pricing a 61% probability of a 25 bp cut at the 18 December FOMC, but that is far from a foregone conclusion. Any repricing of the Fed path will therefore be pivotal for gold in the coming weeks. Structurally, the gold remains a beneficiary of expanding global liquidity and rising risk premium driven by de-globalisation tailwinds.

Robust UST Yields Cap Gold Ahead of Fed Easing Cues_1

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, gold requires a four-hour close above and sustained hold of the psychologically significant 4000 handle and the MA50 near 4012. Until such a reversal is confirmed, downside pressure will remain intact.

Once price secures a four-hour close above 4000, the first resistance zone is 4025–4030. A break through 4040–4045 would likely bring fresh momentum buyers back into the market, shifting short-term structure back to bullish and clearing the path for a retest of the 4100 level.

Conversely, a drop below immediate support at 3973–3970 should attract dip-buying interest, limiting scope for a deeper pullback toward 3940–3935. The next major demand area lies at 3910–3900, followed by last week's low near 3886. Failure to defend these levels would provide fresh impetus for short sellers and set the stage for a corrective decline from the recent record highs.

Notably, although the medium-term bias has turned negative, the long-term uptrend remains underpinned by the daily MA50 at 3844 and the MA100 at 3595.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3995

Target Price: 4146

Stop Loss: 3939

Valid Until: November 21, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 3994/3970/3956

Resistance: 4025/4030/4045

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