Oil Prices Cautious as Trump Enters Fray in High-Stakes US-Iran Nuclear Talks

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

Oil prices edged slightly lower in subdued trading on Tuesday, yet remain anchored within a narrow February range as global markets pivot their full attention to high-stakes nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran set to resume in Geneva.

BUY WTI

EXP

TRADING

63.400

Entry Price

66.500

61.900

62.622 -0.953 -1.50%

0.0

Pips

Flat

61.900

Exit Price

63.400

Entry Price

66.500

The crude complex is exhibiting a classic case of consolidation this Tuesday, with prices ticking lower against a backdrop of thinned liquidity and geopolitical anticipation. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) eased back from Monday's session peak of $63.70 per barrel, last seen trading comfortably above the $63.00 handle. The movement, however, tells only half the story; the more significant narrative is playing out in diplomatic corridors from Geneva to Washington.

Markets are operating in a vacuum of sorts today. With a significant portion of Asia shuttered for the Lunar New Year holiday and US traders just returning from a long weekend, volumes are notably light. This technical lull, however, belies the intense focus on the resumption of talks between Washington and Tehran later in the session. The outcome of these negotiations represents the most immediate binary risk for black gold.

In a development that adds a layer of complexity to the proceedings, former President Donald Trump—a key architect of the maximum-pressure campaign—indicated he would be involved "indirectly" in the dialogue. His assertion that the Iranian leadership appears "motivated to negotiate this time" introduces a political wildcard, suggesting that the contours of any potential deal are being shaped by figures outside the current administration's official structure.

From Tehran, the signals are cautiously optimistic but framed by the looming threat of escalation. The Iranian Foreign Minister acknowledged a perceived shift in Washington's stance on the nuclear file toward what he described as a "more realistic one." Yet, the atmospheric pressure surrounding the talks could not be more intense. The tangible presence of US aircraft carriers in the Arabian Sea serves as a stark reminder that the diplomatic track is running parallel to a very real military option. For traders, this dichotomy is the source of current price stability: the fear of supply disruption if talks fail is being offset by the prospect of increased Iranian supply returning to markets if they succeed.

Adding another layer of supply-side calculus is the outlook from OPEC+. A Reuters report over the weekend confirmed that the producer group is actively considering a resumption of output hikes starting in April. This prospective tapering of cuts is being framed as a preemptive measure to accommodate an anticipated uptick in global consumption during the peak summer driving season in the West. This overhang of potential supply is effectively acting as a ceiling on any speculative rallies, ensuring that even modest attempts to push prices higher are met with seller interest.

For now, WTI remains trapped in a holding pattern, digesting the interplay of thin liquidity, the promise of future OPEC+ barrels, and the existential question of whether the Geneva talks will lead to a thaw or a deeper freeze in one of the world's most volatile regions.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, WTI crude oil remains entrenched in a well-defined ascending structure on the 2-hour chart. Price continues to respect a rising trendline that has guided the advance since early January, consistently producing higher lows. The recent pullback into the $62.20–$62.80 region found support precisely at the confluence of horizontal demand and the ascending trendline, reinforcing the underlying bullish framework.

While $65.00 has capped upside attempts in the near term, the series of higher lows beneath this resistance suggests accumulation rather than distribution. The market is compressing between rising dynamic support and horizontal resistance — a structure that typically resolves in the direction of the prevailing trend, which in this case is upward.

The $62.20–$62.40 zone remains the key structural floor. As long as price holds above this region — and especially above the ascending trendline — the bullish thesis remains intact. A decisive break below $62.00 would mark a deterioration in structure and expose downside toward $61.00 and potentially $59.50. However, current price behavior does not yet confirm that scenario.

On the upside, a sustained break above $65.00 would confirm bullish continuation. Such a move would complete the consolidation phase and likely trigger momentum buying toward $66.00–$66.50, with extension potential toward the upper channel projection near $67.00. Given the compression and repeated defense of higher lows, a breakout scenario appears technically favored.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY WTI

ENTRY PRICE: 63.30

STOP LOSS: 61.90

TAKE PROFIT: 66.50

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Oil Prices Cautious as Trump Enters Fray in High-Stakes US-Iran Nuclear Talks

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