Lower-Than-Expected Supply Boosts Oil Prices

Peterson

Summary:

Today's oscillation will start from 77.0 to 80.0, and it is better to buy at lows.

BUY WTI

EXP

EXPIRED

77.000

Entry Price

80.000

76.500

65.310 +1.270 +1.98%

Pips

EXPIRED

76.500

78.087

Exit Price

77.000

Entry Price

80.000

Fundamentals

During Tuesday's (November 14th) Asian session, WTI crude oil edged down, and it is currently trading at 78.5 dollars/bbl. After the decline in the Asian session yesterday, WTI started to rebound in the afternoon and once reached 78.5 in the U.S. session. As the bearish factors over the weekend were digested by the depreciation in the Asian session, WTI crude oil rebounded rapidly when news reported that the October production in Azerbaijan was 200,000 bpd less than the OPEC+ quota. Meanwhile, it was proved in the OPEC+ report that the October production was only 90,000 bpd more than the September production, which was far below market expectations, compared to a 2 million bpd growth in September from August. This figure implies an improvement in oil supply, and investors should focus on the CPI data this evening. If it supports the dollar, WTI crude oil will retrace. In contrast, WTI may test the resistance at 80. WTI is expected to ascend shortly according to the candlestick pattern. As for whether the upside can continue or not, tonight's data will give the final answer.

News: The U.S. investigated 30 ship companies for allegedly illegally transporting Russian oil, which directly raised market concerns about the Russian oil supply restraint.

Today's focus: API inventory data, the China-U.S. summit, and the U.S. CPI.

Technical Analysis

Oil prices rebounded again for the 3rd consecutive day yesterday, recording a long lower shadow and indicating a diminishing bearish momentum. Technically, MACD is going to form a death cross in the 1H chart and is located near the Bollinger upper band. Thus, an oscillated retracement may appear at the 1H level. On the contrary, there is an initial ascending trend in the daily chart. After short-cycle retracements during the day, WTI may surge to hit the resistance area near 80. In general, if WTI retraces to 77 during the Asian session, it will be a good opportunity to buy in. Nonetheless, if WTI surges directly to 80, it is recommended to go short after it stabilizes.

Today's trading recommendations: Buy low and sell high. If WTI plunges to 77.0, try to go long with small positions and set the stop-loss at 76.5. To take profits, the first target will be at 78.5, where investors can reduce the position size and move the stop-loss to breakeven, and put the second target at 80.0. If WTI appreciates to 80.0, investors should go short with small positions, and set the stop-loss order by 0.5 dollars. The target to take profits is also 78.5. Lower-Than-Expected Supply Boosts Oil Prices_1

Lower-Than-Expected Supply Boosts Oil Prices_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 77.800

Target price: 80.000

Stop loss: 76.500

Support: 76.800/73.800

Resistance: 78.500/80.000

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