Local Support Area Provides Buying Opportunities to Ride the Trend

Forex

Economic

Summary:

The MACD shows a shallow bearish histogram that appears ready to cross back into positive ground, while the signal lines remain firmly in bullish territory, confirming that the path of least resistance points higher.

BUY AUDCHF

EXP

PENDING

0.57100

Entry Price

0.57500

0.56850

0.57310 +0.00065 +0.11%

Pips

PENDING

0.56850

Exit Price

0.57100

Entry Price

0.57500

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.35%, as anticipated, with Governor Michele Bullock taking a hawkish tone that hinted at a potential rate hike in coming months. The RBA Governor also noted that the domestic economy continues operating "above capacity" and emphasized that slowing economic growth will be necessary to curb ongoing inflationary pressures.

In parallel, the Australian economy delivered a positive surprise in June by posting a larger trade surplus than expected. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed exports increased 9.6% month-over-month, bouncing back from the previous month's contraction behind a surge in raw material shipments. On the other hand, imports slid 0.2%, aiding the overall trade balance improvement.

At the same time, inflation showed further signs of cooling. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 3.8% year-over-year in June, landing below market forecasts. This shift markedly scaled back expectations for another RBA rate hike, weighing on the Australian dollar.

In Switzerland, July inflation delivered a downside surprise. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) slipped 0.1% month-over-month, underperforming market expectations of a flat reading. The main drag on price growth stemmed from the transportation sector, where costs fell 0.4% on the month, contrasting with the 0.6% gain anticipated by consensus.

Looking at individual components, domestic prices grew 0.5% year-over-year, whereas imported goods prices held steady compared to the previous year. This trajectory indicates diminishing pressures from imported energy costs, which had previously driven the inflationary uptick seen in earlier months following Middle East tensions.

The Swiss National Bank's (SNB) latest outlook projects average third-quarter inflation at 0.7% year-over-year. Nevertheless, recent metrics suggest a softer path, with quarterly inflation running near 0.5%—around 0.2 percentage points below official projections. Sliding fuel costs have played a central role in this deceleration, and should this trend hold, inflation could keep running below central bank estimates. Local Support Area Provides Buying Opportunities to Ride the Trend_1

Local Support Area Provides Buying Opportunities to Ride the Trend_1

Technical Analysis

AUDCHF shows solid bullish momentum that could remain intact. For now, any pullback toward the local support area at 0.5704, which sits very close to the 100-period moving average at 0.5709, could present opportunities to join the primary trend if price approaches this zone and shows a bullish rejection. Meanwhile, the 200-period moving average sits near 0.5695, with both averages working together to offer dynamic support. On the upside, price could target the 0.5750 level, a Fibonacci expansion zone that frequently serves as a profit target for bullish legs.

Turning to oscillators, the RSI sits at 59 and has recently avoided entering overbought territory, leaving room to continue its upward trajectory. Meanwhile, the MACD shows a shallow bearish histogram that appears ready to cross back into positive ground, while the signal lines remain firmly in bullish territory, confirming that the path of least resistance points higher.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.5710

Target price: 0.5750

Stop loss: 0.5685

Validity: Aug 21, 2026 15:00:00

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Local Support Area Provides Buying Opportunities to Ride the Trend

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