Gold Pushes Higher as September Fed Hike Expectations Retreat

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

Gold rebounds toward $4,371 as the Dollar and Treasury yields ease ahead of the FOMC Minutes. Reduced September Fed hike expectations support the metal, although energy-driven inflation risks continue to limit the upside.

BUY XAUUSD

EXP

TRADING

4370.07

Entry Price

4650.00

4250.00

4497.58 +163.35 +3.77%

0.0

Pips

Flat

4250.00

Exit Price

4370.07

Entry Price

4650.00

Gold is recovering on Wednesday after suffering a sharp decline in the previous session, with XAU/USD climbing back toward $4,371, up around 0.90% on the day. A softer US Dollar and a modest retreat in long-term Treasury yields are helping buyers regain some ground, although conviction remains limited.

The rebound follows Tuesday’s nearly 2% decline, but Gold continues to trade within the relatively narrow range that has dominated price action over the past week. For now, investors appear reluctant to build aggressive positions ahead of fresh guidance from the Federal Reserve.

Attention is firmly on the July FOMC Minutes due at 18:00 GMT. Since that meeting, weaker US labour-market data and softer inflation figures have significantly reduced expectations for another immediate rate increase. Markets currently price only around a 32% probability of a September hike, providing some relief for the non-yielding metal.

ING notes that the July meeting produced a 9-3 vote to leave rates unchanged and ultimately proved dovish for the short end of the US yield curve and the Dollar. A similar tone in the minutes could reinforce the recent decline in Fed tightening expectations and provide another catalyst for Gold.

At the same time, the outlook is complicated by persistent Middle East tensions. Disruptions to energy markets continue to threaten another inflationary impulse, keeping longer-term Treasury yields relatively elevated and preventing markets from completely abandoning expectations for further Fed tightening later in the cycle.

The US Dollar is nevertheless struggling to capitalize on those concerns, with the DXY falling around 0.30% toward 99.37. This provides Gold with some breathing room following Tuesday’s selloff.

The latest recovery suggests buyers remain interested on weakness, but Gold still needs a clear catalyst to escape its recent consolidation. A dovish interpretation of the FOMC Minutes could weaken the Dollar further and give bulls another opportunity to challenge the recent highs, while a more hawkish message would risk extending the correction.

Technical Analysis

Gold’s broader recovery remains intact, with the recent volatility looking more like consolidation within an advancing structure than a meaningful shift in trend. The metal has repeatedly attracted demand around the $4,290–$4,310 region, and the latest rebound from this area suggests buyers are still willing to step in when prices retreat.

Price action is now working its way back through the $4,370 area, but the more significant test sits around $4,440–$4,455. This zone has repeatedly frustrated bullish attempts and remains the key barrier separating the current consolidation from another expansion higher. A convincing break and hold above $4,455 would strengthen the case for a move through $4,500, with the chart leaving room for an extension toward $4,620–$4,650.

I see the sideways movement between approximately $4,300 and $4,450 as the market rebuilding momentum after the sharp advance from the $4,000 region. Rather than chasing price at the highs, buyers appear to be accumulating on dips, which keeps the underlying bullish structure healthy.

That outlook would begin to change if Gold loses $4,290 on a sustained basis. Such a move would open the door to a deeper retracement toward the $4,160–$4,180 demand region and delay the expected upside continuation.

For now, I remain inclined to buy into weakness while $4,290 holds. Clearing $4,455 would provide the stronger confirmation that the consolidation has run its course and that Gold is ready to resume its advance toward $4,500 and potentially $4,650.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 4370

STOP LOSS: 4250

TAKE PROFIT: 4650

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Gold Pushes Higher as September Fed Hike Expectations Retreat

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