The situation in the Middle East is tightening, with security conditions in the Strait of Hormuz deteriorating rapidly. Iran's newly appointed Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, took a hardline stance in his first official statement, emphasizing that Iran will not relinquish its right to "revenge." He declared that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed and warned of potential actions on other fronts. According to foreign media reports, at least six merchant ships or oil tankers were attacked in the Persian Gulf within the past 24 hours, affecting waters near Iraq and Dubai, including one U.S.-flagged vessel. Sources revealed that Iran has laid more than ten naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Although Tehran denies these claims, maritime traffic through the vital waterway has effectively ground to a halt, posing an unprecedented threat to global energy supply chains. Under mounting upward pressure on oil prices, speculation is growing over whether the U.S. government has quietly intervened in the crude futures market. CME Group's CEO publicly warned that if the Trump administration attempts to manipulate crude oil futures pricing mechanisms through executive orders, it could trigger "biblical disaster" and severely erode investor confidence in commodity price fairness. This rare statement from the operator of America's core crude futures trading platform reflects deepening market anxiety over policy uncertainty. From a capital flow perspective, holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, decreased by 1.429 tons from the previous trading day to 1,075.852 tons. This indicates that some investors are choosing to exit or adopt a wait-and-see approach amid the correction in gold prices. However, ANZ Bank strategists Soni Kumari and Daniel Hynes maintain their medium-term bullish outlook. They argue that the recent pullback is primarily driven by technical corrections and sentiment volatility. The strength of the U.S. dollar is more a result of safe-haven flows rather than a fundamental reversal. Given that the downward trend in U.S. inflation remains intact, it will be difficult for the Fed to reverse its overall accommodative direction. Even if near-term rate cut expectations are delayed, both real interest rates and the dollar are expected to trend lower in the medium term. ANZ maintains its forecast for the Fed's policy rate to fall to 3.0% by the end of 2026, viewing this as a key support for attracting investment inflows into gold.

On the macro data front, according to the latest report from the U.S. Department of Labor, the initial jobless claims for the week ending February 22 decreased by 1,000 to 213,000, slightly below the market expectation of 215,000 and roughly in line with the average of the past three weeks. This result suggests that while nonfarm payrolls contracted temporarily in February, the U.S. labor market remains resilient and shows no signs of a fundamental deterioration. However, analysts point out that a further escalation in the U.S.-Israel military confrontation with Iran could pose a tail risk to the employment market. Meanwhile, data released by the U.S. Census Bureau revealed that housing starts surged 7.2% month-on-month in January (seasonally adjusted), annualizing at 1.487 million units. This far exceeded market expectations of 1.35 million and was significantly higher than the revised December figure of 1.387 million, marking the highest level since February 2025. This indicates a rapid recovery in residential construction activity, which is expected to support Q1 economic growth. Despite the strong data, concerns about inflation continue to simmer. While the January U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index did not cause significant market disruption, the recent surge in international oil prices, combined with supply disruption fears linked to the Middle East conflict, has led markets to reprice the possibility of inflation reaccelerating in March. This has dampened the probability of a near-term Fed rate cut. The European Union has also issued a warning, stating that regional inflation could exceed 3% this year due to energy pass-through effects, further fueling market bets that major central banks will maintain a tightening bias. According to interest rate futures market pricing, traders now expect the Fed to cut rates only once in 2026, with a cumulative reduction of no more than 20 basis points. Moreover, the probability of a March rate cut has dropped to nearly zero. Against this backdrop, Goldman Sachs has postponed its forecast for the Fed's first rate cut from June of this year to September 2026, signaling a further delay in the easing cycle by mainstream Wall Street institutions. Additionally, trade uncertainty is resurfacing. The U.S. government announced a new round of trade investigations targeting 16 partners, including the EU, triggering a strong backlash. The European Commission stated that if the U.S. unilaterally violates previously agreed trade frameworks, the EU will take "firm and proportionate" countermeasures. Transatlantic trade rifts have re-emerged at a critical juncture marked by high energy prices and global supply chain restructuring, which exacerbates fears of fragmentation in global economic governance and introduces new variables to future inflation expectations.

Regarding the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are contracting, and moving averages are flattening, indicating a consolidation phase. Prices are oscillating between the Bollinger Upper and Lower Bands. If gold fails to hold above $5000, it is likely to test the $4900 level. Conversely, a sustained break above $5000 could lead to an advance towards $5500 and $5600. Another death cross emerges, with the MACD and signal lines returning below the zero axis. The RSI stands at 42, suggesting a market dominated by selling pressure. Daily, prices touched the Bollinger Upper Band and faced resistance, forming a bearish candlestick with a long upper shadow. Subsequently, a large bearish candle broke below the EMA12 and the Bollinger Middle Band, indicating that the downtrend is not yet complete. A MACD death cross has appeared, and the upward momentum is gradually weakening—a signal of a bearish divergence that foreshadows further declines. The RSI is at 51, reflecting strong market indecision. It is better to sell at highs.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry Price: 5100

Target Price: 4300

Stop Loss: 5700

Support: 4500/4300/4100

Resistance: 5400/5500/5600