Gold Eyes Fresh Upside as Fed Rate Bets Recede

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

Gold holds above $4,450 ahead of US NFP as expectations for a September Fed hike ease. Geopolitical tensions remain supportive, although a clear break above $4,500 is needed to strengthen the recovery.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4469.91

Entry Price

4900.00

4300.00

4435.89 -36.85 -0.82%

11.8

Pips

Profit

4300.00

4471.09

Exit Price

4469.91

Entry Price

4900.00

Gold is trading in a narrow range above $4,450 on Friday, holding close to this week's highs as investors avoid taking aggressive positions ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report. The data could prove crucial for expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's September decision and, in turn, determine the next significant move in XAU/USD.

The metal has recovered strongly from the four-week low reached on Wednesday, helped by softer US Treasury yields and a weaker Dollar. Fed Governor Christopher Waller added to that support after indicating that he currently favours keeping rates unchanged in September, provided upcoming inflation figures do not deliver an upside surprise.

Still, the possibility of further Fed tightening has not disappeared. Rising energy prices are keeping inflation concerns alive, particularly as renewed US-Iran tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to support crude oil prices.

TD Securities sees Friday's employment figures as the next major catalyst for precious metals but remains relatively constructive beyond the immediate event risk. The bank argues that substantial downside may be limited as uncertainty surrounding further Fed hikes persists.

Geopolitical risks are also providing underlying support for Gold. Iran's latest attacks on US military bases in Kuwait and the UAE, alongside continued uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, have kept investors alert to further escalation.

For now, Gold appears to have stabilised following its correction from the $4,700 region, but the next directional move will likely depend heavily on US employment data. A sustained push above the psychological $4,500 level would strengthen the case for a more meaningful bullish recovery.

Technical Analysis

The 4-hour Gold chart is beginning to show a bullish recovery structure after the sharp correction from the $4,680 region found strong buying interest around the $4,290 support zone. The rebound from this area has been aggressive, with XAU/USD recovering toward $4,470, suggesting that the recent selloff may have been a corrective phase rather than the beginning of a sustained bearish reversal.

Price is now testing an important $4,440–$4,480 pivot zone, which previously acted as a major consolidation area. Holding above this region would strengthen the recovery case and could allow buyers to challenge the next major resistance around $4,550–$4,570. A clean break and sustained move above that barrier would represent a significant bullish confirmation, exposing the previous swing-high region around $4,630–$4,680.

Beyond there, a breakout above the previous highs would restore the broader bullish trend and potentially open the door toward $4,800, followed by the psychological $4,900–$4,920 region, which aligns with the projected continuation shown on the chart.

On the downside, the immediate risk is another rejection from the current $4,440–$4,480 area. Such a move could send Gold back toward $4,290, which remains the key support underpinning the recovery. A decisive break beneath $4,290 would weaken the bullish setup considerably and expose the next demand region around $4,150–$4,170.

For now, however, the strong reaction from $4,290 and subsequent recovery back into the $4,400s keeps the near-term bias tilted toward further upside, particularly if buyers can establish acceptance above $4,480.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY XAU/USD

ENTRY PRICE: 4,470

STOP LOSS: 4,300

TAKE PROFIT: 4,900

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Gold Eyes Fresh Upside as Fed Rate Bets Recede

Technical Analysis

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