Gold Enters Value Zone, Hawkishness Dominates Upside Momentum

Summary:

The current price range of gold offers certain allocation appeal, but its upside potential remains significantly constrained under the framework of hawkish central bank policies.

BUY XAUUSD

EXP

TRADING

4562.14

Entry Price

5200.00

4170.00

4538.70 +28.08 +0.62%

0.0

Pips

Flat

4170.00

Exit Price

4562.14

Entry Price

5200.00

Fundamentals

In the past few weeks, gold has been largely viewed by the market as a liquidity tool, used to hedge against volatility in other assets and meet margin requirements.

However, as prices have retreated to a relatively reasonable range, its nature is gradually shifting back to that of a value investment target, which is also an important driver for capital inflows.

Nevertheless, major global central banks remain vigilant against oil-driven inflation and maintain a hawkish policy stance.

Against this backdrop, real interest rates stay elevated, exerting persistent pressure on the non-interest-bearing asset gold. As a result, every rebound faces strong resistance and upward momentum is constrained.

Gold Enters Value Zone, Hawkishness Dominates Upside Momentum_1

Technical Analysis

Although geopolitical developments (such as Iran rejecting relevant proposals) have not triggered further safe-haven buying, gold prices have shown strong resilience and held steadily above the $4500 level.

Prices are currently capped near $4550 without triggering significant selling, indicating that market sensitivity to news flow is declining.

The trading logic is gradually shifting from event-driven to technical-driven.

From an indicator perspective, the MACD has displayed a bullish convergence signal, suggesting weakening downward momentum and that bullish forces are expected to build gradually.

A break above the $4550 resistance zone could open the way for further gains toward the key psychological level at $4604.

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 4498

Target Price: 5200

Stop Loss: 4170

Valid Until: 2026-04-29 23:55:00

Support: 4375/4306/4325

Resistance: 4504/4602/4739

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