Fading Bearish Pressure Near 200 MA Validates GBPUSD Bullish Continuation

Forex

Economic

Summary:

This successful defense suggests a potential for a new bullish impulse with an initial target at the 1.3847 resistance zone.

BUY GBPUSD

EXP

TRADING

1.36913

Entry Price

1.38450

1.35000

1.36813 +0.00401 +0.29%

0.0

Pips

Flat

1.35000

Exit Price

1.36913

Entry Price

1.38450

Early Monday, economic advisor Kevin Hassett indicated that while somewhat softer labor market figures should be anticipated, a moderate cooling of the employment landscape should not trigger undue alarm among market participants.

Following this, Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Stephan Miran joined the discourse regarding central bank independence, asserting that the Fed must preserve a significant level of autonomy from political pressures. He nuanced this perspective, however, by acknowledging that absolute independence remains practically unattainable in the current geopolitical environment. On the fiscal front, Miran underscored the benefits of full expensing policies, which provide a significant boost to economic activity. This mechanism allows corporations to immediately deduct the entire cost of productive equipment and machinery in the year of purchase, bypassing traditional long-term depreciation schedules.

Simultaneously, Fed Governor Philip Jefferson signaled that the central bank’s future policy path will remain strictly dependent on incoming data, maintaining a cautiously optimistic outlook supported by a 2.2% GDP growth forecast for the year. Jefferson reiterated that the Federal Reserve’s steadfast commitment to price stability is actively mitigating systemic risks. He further suggested that monetary policy is approaching a neutral stance, classifying the 2025 tariffs as a transitory adjustment to price levels.

Meanwhile, the publication of January’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) has been officially rescheduled to February 11th as a direct consequence of the partial government shutdown. Concurrently, the latest University of Michigan (UoM) survey points to a budding improvement in consumer sentiment, though the underlying data necessitates a vigilant interpretation. Survey director Joanne Hsu highlighted a stark structural divergence, observing that sentiment surged significantly among consumers with large stock portfolios, whereas it remained at discouragingly low levels for those without equity holdings.

The political landscape in the United Kingdom experienced renewed volatility following the resignation of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Chief of Staff on Sunday. This departure reportedly followed internal friction regarding pressure on the PM to appoint Peter Mandelson as the Ambassador to the United States, despite significant controversies surrounding his past associations.

This high-profile exit has deepened internal fractures within the Labour Party, fueling widespread speculation concerning Starmer’s continued leadership. Amidst this instability, the nation prepares for elections in Manchester later this month, followed by local elections in May. Market participants are monitoring the political climate with extreme caution, as the potential appointment of a new leadership could signal a shift toward more interventionist fiscal policies and expanded public spending. Such a transition would likely exert upward pressure on British Gilt yields within a macroeconomic environment already characterized by elevated inflation and restricted economic growth. Fading Bearish Pressure Near 200 MA Validates GBPUSD Bullish Continuation_1

Fading Bearish Pressure Near 200 MA Validates GBPUSD Bullish Continuation_1

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD pair staged a robust bullish rebound upon testing the 200-period Moving Average on the 4-hour chart, which is currently situated at 1.3539. Meanwhile, the 100-period MA is positioned at 1.3611. The 200-period MA zone converges significantly with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which has historically functioned as a primary target for corrective phases. Consequently, this successful defense suggests a potential for a new bullish impulse with an initial target at the 1.3847 resistance zone, marking the local peak.

Our momentum analysis via the MACD further reinforces this recovery thesis. The indicator is currently printing bullish bars with substantial volume, suggesting that upward momentum may be sustained over a longer horizon. With the signal lines approaching a crossover above the neutral zone, it appears increasingly likely that the preceding bearish drive was merely a technical retracement. The clear bounce at the 1.3535 level—which previously acted as resistance and is now serving as support—indicates that the primary bullish trend remains firmly in play. However, traders should remain vigilant; a decisive break below the current trendline would invalidate this bullish setup and pave the way for a more pronounced decline.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.3690

Target price: 1.3845

Stop loss: 1.3500

Validity: Feb 19, 2026 15:00:00

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Fading Bearish Pressure Near 200 MA Validates GBPUSD Bullish Continuation

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