EUR/USD Holds Gains as Strong Eurozone Data and Soft US Numbers Weigh on Dollar

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The Euro remained firm near 1.1550 on Thursday, supported by stronger-than-expected Eurozone data and a weaker US Dollar following disappointing US economic releases, while investors awaited Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls report for fresh policy direction.

BUY EURUSD

EXP

TRADING

1.15390

Entry Price

1.18480

1.14000

1.15582 +0.00352 +0.31%

0.0

Pips

Flat

1.14000

Exit Price

1.15390

Entry Price

1.18480

The Euro traded steadily around the 1.1550 level against the US Dollar on Thursday, maintaining the strong recovery seen from last week's lows as improving Eurozone economic data and softer US macroeconomic releases continued to favor the common currency.

Support for the Euro strengthened after German Factory Orders surged 3.1% in June, comfortably beating market expectations of a 0.3% increase and highlighting the resilience of Europe's largest economy. The upbeat figures followed stronger Services PMI data released earlier in the week, reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank will proceed with another interest rate hike in September.

The US Dollar remained under pressure after another round of disappointing economic data. ADP private payrolls showed the US economy added just 44,000 jobs in July, significantly below both June's 98,000 increase and market expectations. Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI edged up only marginally to 54.1, missing forecasts as employment weakened despite rising price pressures, adding to concerns that economic momentum is slowing.

Geopolitical developments also remained in focus after reports emerged of a proposed agreement between Iran and Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. While the proposal reportedly grants Tehran greater control over maritime traffic, US President Donald Trump reiterated his opposition to any arrangement that would place the strategic waterway under Iranian control, leaving uncertainty over the negotiations.

With attention now turning to Friday's highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls report, investors are expected to remain cautious. The employment data is likely to play a decisive role in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve's next policy move and determining whether the US Dollar extends its recent weakness or stages a broader recovery.

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD has staged a decisive bullish breakout from a multi-month descending channel, confirming a significant shift in market structure after several weeks of sustained selling pressure. The breakout was reinforced by the completion of a triple-bottom reversal pattern around 1.1345, a formation that often signals exhaustion among sellers and the beginning of a broader trend reversal. The aggressive rally from this base highlights strengthening bullish momentum and suggests buyers have regained control of the medium-term trend.

Price is now consolidating around 1.1539 after successfully reclaiming the 1.1504 resistance zone, which has now transitioned into immediate support. This period of consolidation appears constructive rather than corrective, indicating that the market is absorbing recent gains before attempting another leg higher. As long as EUR/USD continues to hold above 1.1504, the breakout remains technically valid and keeps the bullish outlook firmly intact.

A sustained move above 1.1539 would strengthen bullish conviction and expose the next major resistance at 1.1693. A decisive break through this level would likely accelerate buying pressure toward 1.1848, where the next significant supply zone is located. Such a move would further confirm that the longer-term downtrend has been reversed in favor of a new bullish phase.

On the downside, failure to defend 1.1504 would signal fading bullish momentum and could trigger a corrective retracement toward 1.1345, the neckline of the triple-bottom formation and a major demand zone. A sustained break beneath 1.1345 would invalidate the current breakout and suggest that sellers have regained control, exposing the pair to a deeper corrective decline.

Overall, the technical outlook continues to favor the upside. The breakout from the descending channel, confirmation of the triple-bottom reversal, and successful reclaiming of key resistance levels all point to improving market sentiment. Unless EUR/USD falls back below 1.1504, the path of least resistance remains higher.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY ENTRY: 1.1539

TAKE PROFIT: 1.1848

STOP LOSS: 1.1400

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Risk Disclosure

The risk of loss in trading financial instruments such as stocks, FX, commodities, futures, bonds, ETFs and crypto can be substantial. You may sustain a total loss of the funds that you deposit with your broker. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.

No decision to invest should be made without thoroughly conducting due diligence by yourself or consulting with your financial advisors. Our web content might not suit you since we don't know your financial conditions and investment needs. Our financial information might have latency or contain inaccuracy, so you should be fully responsible for any of your trading and investment decisions. The company will not be responsible for your capital loss.

Without getting permission from the website, you are not allowed to copy the website's graphics, texts, or trademarks. Intellectual property rights in the content or data incorporated into this website belong to its providers and exchange merchants.

Recent Searches

Top Searches

Markets

Analysis

User

24/7

Economic Calendar

Education