EUR/USD Holds 1.1645: Can Buyers Reclaim 1.1700 After the Pullback?

Forex

Summary:

EUR/USD is consolidating around 1.1645 after a seven-session correction from the 1.1700+ area. The ECB reference rate for 27 August was exactly 1.1645, while current market analysis places immediate support around 1.1620–1.1638 and resistance at 1.1685–1.1707....

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.16450

Entry Price

1.17000

1.16180

1.15804 -0.00704 -0.60%

27.0

Pips

Loss

1.16180

1.16177

Exit Price

1.16450

Entry Price

1.17000

Overall

EUR/USD has entered an important decision zone after retreating from its recent high above 1.1700. Current analysis shows the pair trading close to 1.1645, with the market increasingly compressed between approximately 1.1620 and 1.1685. Vantage's latest intraday assessment places EUR/USD near 1.16453 and notes that price is below its 50- and 200-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, indicating that immediate momentum remains corrective.

The macro picture is unusually balanced. U.S. core PCE inflation has remained elevated, while stronger jobless-claims data and persistent inflation concerns have reduced expectations of an imminent Fed easing cycle. The market is therefore watching Warsh's Jackson Hole speech for clues about whether the Fed will tolerate current inflation levels or signal a more restrictive policy stance.

Against this, the euro has its own support. Market expectations increasingly point toward an ECB rate hike in September, while structural concerns about U.S. fiscal policy and the Treasury's expanded bond-buyback program continue to undermine confidence in the dollar.

The critical insight is that 1.1645 sits inside a genuine demand area rather than at an arbitrary price. The market already reacted from 1.1638, and holding this zone would preserve the broader bullish structure. A recovery through 1.1665 would be the first evidence that buyers are regaining short-term control.

Market Sentiment

Sentiment is cautiously bullish but highly event-driven. EUR/USD has corrected for seven consecutive sessions, yet the decline has not produced a decisive break of the medium-term bullish channel. RoboForex identifies 1.1620 as the major downside invalidation level and expects renewed buying interest if that support holds.

At the same time, today's dollar strength cannot be ignored. Reuters reports that the dollar is near a one-week high as traders await Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote, while several Fed officials have recently emphasized persistent inflation risks.

This creates a clear M15 trigger: 1.1645 should hold, followed by a recovery above 1.1665. If that sequence develops, the correction is likely becoming exhausted. If price instead closes decisively below 1.1620, the BUY thesis should be considered invalid because the next downside target could extend toward 1.1585 and potentially 1.1492.

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Holds 1.1645: Can Buyers Reclaim 1.1700 After the Pullback?_1

Using Bollinger Bands (20,0,2), Ichimoku (9,26,52), and Stochastic (5,3,3), the preferred setup is a tactical BUY from 1.1645.

Bollinger Bands are compressing after the prolonged decline, suggesting volatility is being stored around the 1.1640–1.1650 area. The important signal is whether price can reclaim the middle band and then expand toward the upper band. A sustained M15 move above 1.1665 would indicate that the corrective channel is breaking higher.

Ichimoku remains the key trend filter. Price is currently close to the cloud after the seven-session correction, so the BUY requires the pair to stabilize above the cloud rather than continuing to migrate lower. A bullish Tenkan-sen/Kijun-sen crossover combined with a recovery above 1.1665 would significantly strengthen the setup.

Stochastic (5/3/3) is approaching the lower region following the extended correction. A bullish crossover from this area would provide the timing signal for the BUY, particularly if it occurs while price holds 1.1640–1.1645. This is preferable to buying after a large breakout because the risk can be defined much closer to structural support.

The immediate resistance is 1.1665, followed by 1.1685 and the major 1.1700–1.1707 zone. Support is 1.1638, with 1.1620 being the critical invalidation level. Sucden also identifies 1.1638 as the near-term line in the sand and 1.1707 as the upside target if support holds.

Trade Recommendation

Entry: 1.1645

Take Profit: 1.1700

Stop Loss: 1.1618

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