Euro Steadies at 1.1547 as Ceasefire Talks Offset Strong US Jobs Data

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The Euro edged higher against the US Dollar on Monday, bouncing from session lows at 1.1505 toward 1.1570, as reports of a proposed 45-day Iran ceasefire lifted sentiment cautiously.

BUY EURUSD

EXP

TRADING

1.15501

Entry Price

1.16300

1.14800

1.15422 +0.00310 +0.27%

0.0

Pips

Flat

1.14800

Exit Price

1.15501

Entry Price

1.16300

The Euro is trading marginally higher against the US Dollar this Monday, staging a tentative recovery from session lows as global markets digest what could be the most consequential geopolitical development since the Middle East conflict erupted weeks ago: a proposed 45-day ceasefire between the United States and Iran that, if implemented, would end hostilities immediately and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping. EUR/USD has bounced from the 1.1505 low to trade near 1.1570, but the pair has struggled to build meaningful momentum beyond that level, remaining effectively pinned within the trading ranges that defined last week's choppy, geopolitical-driven price action.

The ceasefire proposal has been met with what I would characterize as cautious, conditional optimism — the kind of enthusiasm that surfaces when markets want to believe in good news but have been burned too many times in recent weeks to commit fully. And frankly, that caution is entirely rational. We have been here before. On multiple occasions over the past month, diplomatic signals from Tehran or Washington briefly ignited risk-on rallies, only for a presidential statement, a missile strike, or an Iranian rebuttal to collapse the recovery within 24 to 48 hours. The market has learned, sometimes painfully, to price geopolitical de-escalation with significant skepticism until the evidence becomes irrefutable.

What makes this latest development different — and potentially more significant — is the specificity of the proposal. A 45-day ceasefire is not a vague expression of willingness to talk. It is a structured timeline with a concrete objective: the immediate cessation of hostilities and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world's daily oil supply flows. If implemented, the implications for energy markets, inflation expectations, and global monetary policy would be immediate and far-reaching. Oil prices, which have surged well above $100 per barrel on the back of supply disruption fears, would likely reprice sharply lower. Inflationary pressures that have forced the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank into defensive holding patterns would begin to ease. Risk appetite would return with force, and currencies like the Euro — which benefits from reduced safe-haven demand for the Dollar — would find meaningful upside traction.

But here is where President Trump complicates the picture, as he so often does. Even as the ceasefire proposal circulates, Trump reiterated his threat to destroy Iranian civilian infrastructure and energy sites if Tehran fails to reopen the Strait of Hormuz before Tuesday at 8 PM Eastern Time — midnight GMT. This deadline, hanging over the market like an axe, is the single most important variable for risk assets in the immediate term. It transforms Monday's session into one of the most consequential 24-hour windows we have seen in months. If Iran complies and Hormuz reopens before the deadline, the relief rally across risk assets — including EUR/USD — could be explosive. If it does not, and Trump follows through on his threat, the resulting escalation would trigger a risk-off shock that could dwarf anything markets have experienced so far in this conflict.

This binary setup explains perfectly why EUR/USD is trapped in its current range. Bulls cannot push aggressively higher with a military escalation deadline less than 24 hours away. Bears cannot commit to sustained selling with a ceasefire proposal genuinely on the table. The result is exactly what we are seeing: a pair bouncing within a defined range, waiting for the geopolitical outcome that will determine its next directional move. In my assessment, the 1.1570 level represents the ceiling of near-term uncertainty pricing, and a clean break above it will require either confirmed ceasefire implementation or a credible sign that Trump's deadline will be met without military action.

Compounding the complexity of Monday's session is the Easter holiday, with most major European markets closed and liquidity significantly thinner than normal. Reduced participation amplifies price volatility and can produce exaggerated moves in either direction that do not necessarily reflect genuine institutional conviction. Traders and investors should be particularly cautious about reading too much into intraday swings on a session of this nature.

On the macroeconomic front, Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls report delivered a significant upside surprise that has altered the Federal Reserve's calculus in a meaningful way. The US economy added 178,000 net jobs in March — nearly three times the consensus estimate of 60,000 — a figure that speaks to the remarkable resilience of the American labor market even amid the geopolitical storm engulfing global energy markets. For the Federal Reserve, a labor market this robust significantly reduces the urgency for near-term rate cuts, reinforcing the case for a patient, data-dependent stance. For the Dollar, it is structurally supportive — and it is one reason why EUR/USD's upside has been limited despite the ceasefire optimism.

Monday's primary data event is the US ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March, with services activity expected to have moderated slightly but remain firmly in expansion territory — a reading consistent with an economy that is holding up despite the headwinds of elevated energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty. A result in line with or above expectations would add further weight to the Fed's hold stance and provide the Dollar with another layer of fundamental support, making it harder for EUR/USD bulls to engineer a sustained breakout above 1.1570.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD is navigating a complex and volatile price structure on the 1-hour chart, with price currently trading around 1.15475 following a series of sharp directional swings that have defined the pair's behavior across the April 1–6 session window. The chart reveals a market in transition — one that surged aggressively to the 1.1630 resistance ceiling in early April before collapsing with equal ferocity, and has since been attempting to stabilize and rebuild from the 1.1510–1.1515 support floor.

The most important structural development visible on this chart is the sharp rejection from the 1.1630 resistance zone — a prominent horizontal ceiling that has capped upside attempts with precision. The rejection produced an aggressive multi-session selloff that drove price all the way down to the 1.1510 area, stripping away several days of accumulated gains in a matter of hours. This kind of velocity on the downside, from resistance to support in a near-vertical move, is a hallmark of momentum selling rather than orderly profit-taking, and it leaves a technically damaged structure that will require meaningful time and consolidation to repair.

The 9-period EMA and 21-period SMA, currently sitting at 1.15418 and 1.15343 respectively, have now turned higher and are beginning to slope upward beneath current price following the recovery from the 1.1510 lows. This realignment — with price trading above both moving averages after a period of sustained selling — represents the first tentative technical signal that short-term momentum may be shifting back in favor of the bulls. However, the recovery must be treated with caution at this stage. The moving averages have only just begun to curl higher and have not yet established a convincing upward trajectory, meaning they could easily flatten or reverse again if selling pressure returns.

The 1.1510–1.1515 support band is the critical floor that must hold to preserve any bullish recovery scenario. This zone arrested the decline decisively, producing a sharp reversal candle that has since propelled price back toward the 1.1550 area. A retest of this support level that holds on a closing basis would reinforce the higher-low structure and add credibility to the recovery attempt. A sustained hourly close below 1.1510, however, would be a technically significant breakdown that exposes the 1.1480–1.1490 zone below, and beneath that, the 1.1400 psychological level that represents the next major structural reference on higher timeframes.

The immediate resistance challenge for recovering bulls sits at the 1.1550 dotted level — a near-term pivot that has acted as both support and resistance within the current session and is now being tested at the time of writing. A clean hourly close above 1.1550 with follow-through would shift near-term attention toward the 1.1600 intermediate resistance zone, which provided multiple pivot points during the April 2–3 consolidation phase. Beyond 1.1600, the measured move projection drawn on the chart targets the 1.1630 major resistance ceiling — the level that defined the peak of the recent rally and remains the ultimate test for bulls on this timeframe. A sustained break and close above 1.1630 would mark a decisive structural breakout and open the door toward 1.1680–1.1700.

The broader price action across this chart reflects the fundamental tension gripping EUR/USD right now: ceasefire optimism provides intermittent upside fuel, while Trump's escalation threats, a resilient US Dollar supported by a blowout NFP print, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty repeatedly cap recovery attempts. Until one of these forces decisively overwhelms the other, range-bound volatility within the 1.1510–1.1630 corridor is likely to persist.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EUR/USD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.1550

STOP LOSS: 1.1480

TAKE PROFIT: 1.1630

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Euro Steadies at 1.1547 as Ceasefire Talks Offset Strong US Jobs Data

Technical Analysis

Risk Disclosure