EUR/CHF Struggles Near 0.9170 as Swiss Franc Strength Counters Euro Gains

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

EUR/CHF holds near 0.9170 as falling oil prices and stronger German data support the Euro, while accelerating Swiss inflation strengthens expectations of a more hawkish SNB and limits the pair’s upside.

SELL EURCHF

EXP

TRADING

0.91750

Entry Price

0.90950

0.93000

0.91635 -0.00093 -0.10%

0.0

Pips

Flat

0.90950

Exit Price

0.91750

Entry Price

0.93000

EUR/CHF remained broadly steady around 0.9170 during Thursday’s European session, recovering from earlier losses as competing currency drivers kept the cross within a narrow range. The Euro has found some support from falling oil prices, improving German industrial data and increasingly hawkish signals from European Central Bank officials. However, renewed demand for the Swiss Franc is limiting the pair’s recovery, particularly after stronger-than-expected Swiss inflation revived expectations of a more restrictive monetary policy outlook.

The decline in crude oil prices has offered some relief to the Eurozone, with markets anticipating that the Democratic Party’s sweeping US midterm election victory could increase political pressure on the Trump administration to bring the conflict with Iran to an end. Trump acknowledged that Republican losses were partly driven by public dissatisfaction with the war and rising gasoline prices, while indicating that there were no immediate plans to intensify military strikes. Lower energy costs could help ease inflationary pressures across Europe, providing the ECB with greater flexibility, although the central bank’s recent hawkish commentary suggests policymakers remain concerned about persistent price growth.

German industrial figures have also contributed to the Euro’s resilience. Factory Orders increased 3.3% year-over-year in September, slightly above the revised 3.2% growth recorded previously. On a monthly basis, orders rebounded by 4.4% after plunging 10.1% in August, although the recovery fell short of the 4.8% market forecast. Meanwhile, ECB officials have continued to signal that additional interest rate increases may be necessary to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched through a wage-price spiral. This has helped maintain support for the single currency despite the mixed economic picture.

The Swiss Franc, however, presents a significant challenge to any sustained EUR/CHF recovery. Swiss inflation accelerated unexpectedly to 1.5% annually in October, raising questions about whether the Swiss National Bank can maintain its current policy stance without considering further tightening through 2027. ING analysts view a more hawkish SNB as a clear positive for the Franc, pointing to the central bank’s previous willingness to support the currency through foreign-exchange sales as part of its monetary tightening strategy. This approach could attract greater interest in the Franc over the coming months, leaving EUR/CHF exposed to renewed downside pressure. The cross therefore faces conflicting monetary policy signals, with the Euro receiving support from the ECB while the SNB’s changing inflation outlook strengthens the case for the Swiss currency.

Technical Analysis

EUR/CHF maintains a clear bearish structure on the H4 chart, with price action continuing to form lower highs and lower lows since the sharp reversal from the 0.9470 region. The pair has gradually surrendered several key support levels, including the areas around 0.9366 and 0.9263, which have subsequently become resistance. This sequence indicates that sellers remain in control of the broader short-term trend, despite occasional recovery attempts.

The latest price action shows the pair struggling around the 0.9175–0.9185 zone. This area is particularly important because it represents a previous support region that could now act as resistance. Recent candles suggest that buyers have not generated enough momentum to reclaim this level convincingly. A rejection here, followed by a renewed move below 0.9158, would strengthen the bearish continuation setup and potentially expose the next support around 0.9092.

The projected price path points toward a possible brief recovery or retest of the 0.9175–0.9185 region before another leg lower. If sellers maintain control, the 0.9092 support zone becomes the immediate downside objective, with further weakness potentially opening the way toward 0.9000. However, a sustained H4 recovery above 0.9200–0.9210 would weaken the immediate bearish setup and suggest that a deeper correction may be developing.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL EUR/CHF

ENTRY PRICE: 0.9175

STOP LOSS: 0.9300

TAKE PROFIT: 0.9095

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