Federal Reserve Chair Powell's overnight remarks emphasized the "sticky inflation risk." Although he did not explicitly rule out the possibility of interest rate cuts this year, market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in November have decreased to 58%. This statement triggered a correction in U.S. tech stocks, with the Nasdaq Composite Index declining by 0.95%. Risk-off sentiment increased, and cryptocurrencies, as risk assets, were the first to be affected. However, regulatory bodies have released positive signals: the SEC approved the inclusion of the Grayscale Ethereum Futures ETF in the NYSE's universal listing framework. Despite the ongoing debate over its futures nature, this signifies the regulatory body's initial recognition of Ethereum's financialization. This policy breakthrough may pave the way for subsequent spot ETF approvals, potentially attracting hundreds of billions of dollars in institutional investment in the long term.

On-chain data indicates a tug-of-war dynamic within the Ethereum market. Over the past 24 hours, the transfer of 2,300 ETH (approximately US$99 million) dormant for 3-6 months reached a single-day high since September, suggesting profit-taking by early investors and concentrated short-term selling pressure. Simultaneously, institutional wallets such as FG Nexus increased their holdings by 5,000 ETH, and the Lido staking protocol saw over 120,000 ETH in new deposits within a day, reflecting confidence in the ETH 2.0 upgrade and the Dencun upgrade among long-term holders.

In the 1D timeframe, Ethereum's recent price action indicates a consolidation phase within the 4,060-4,900 range. Currently, the price has retraced to the lower boundary of this range, near 4,060. Notably, the 4H chart formed a bullish candle with a long lower shadow, signaling a strong support level at 4,060. Ethereum may continue its upward momentum in the near term to test the resistance level at 4,900.

From a SMA perspective, the 60-day and 144-day SMAs maintain a bullish alignment, reinforcing the positive outlook for Ethereum's medium to long-term trend and further supporting short-term bullish momentum.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 4170

Target Price: 4960

Stop Loss: 3980

Valid Until: October 8, 2025 23:00:00

Support: 4060, 4000

Resistance: 4407, 4900

Canadian PM Mark Carney in New York: Affirming Canada’s role as a reliable trading partner and explaining the decision to recognize Palestine.

During this week’s UN General Assembly in New York, Prime Minister Mark Carney conducted intensive diplomacy, positioning Canada as a dependable trading partner and detailing Ottawa’s rationale for recognizing the State of Palestine.

Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem noted that President Trump’s interference with the Fed has undermined the USD’s safe-haven appeal, driving the greenback nearly 10% lower since April—an indirect shock to a highly U.S.-leveraged Canadian economy. Washington’s tariff regime amplifies global uncertainty, reducing Canadian economic efficiency, raising costs, and lowering incomes—effects that neither monetary easing nor counter-cyclical fiscal stimulus can fully offset. Long-standing productivity weakness intensifies inflationary pressure, leaving Canada at a competitive disadvantage. Collectively, these forces—questioned U.S. monetary-policy independence, rising protectionism, and sluggish productivity—are weighing on the CAD.

U.S. President Donald Trump issued fresh tariff threats against Russia, stoking risk-off sentiment and lending the dollar support. USDCAD advanced. Speaking at the UN on Tuesday, Trump warned that if Russia refuses to end the war in Ukraine, the US stands ready to “impose a powerful new round of tariffs.” He also criticized European nations for purchasing Russian energy, claiming “they are funding a war against themselves,” and urged the EU to align with Washington on tariffs to ensure effectiveness.

However, the dollar faced headwinds after the release of the U.S. September S&P Global PMI data. The composite PMI slipped to 53.6 from 54.6 in August, indicating the private sector is struggling to gain further momentum. The manufacturing PMI dropped to 52.0 from 53, signaling moderating factory-sector growth, while the services PMI eased to 53.9 from 54.5, suggesting softening demand.

On the daily timeframe, USDCAD is oscillating between the Bollinger mid-band and the EMA200. The MACD signal line has printed a bullish crossover and is hugging the zero axis, implying a potential inflection point. RSI reads 57, Bollinger bands are contracting, and the moving-average cluster is flat—evidence that the market remains in wait-and-see mode. A sustained break above the EMA200 would open the psychological 1.40 handle and the prior swing-high near 1.393.

On the weekly timeframe, price continues to meander around the Bollinger mid-band. The MACD has formed an underwater golden cross and is pulling back toward the zero line. The gap still remaining suggests the rebound is not yet complete. RSI is at 51 with ascending lows, implying scope for a further recovery toward the upper Bollinger band near 1.404.

In conclusion, the trading strategy is recommended to buy dips.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.386

Target Price: 1.4

Stop Loss: 1.375

Support: 1.378/1.37/1.357

Resistance: 1.393/1.4/1.401

Silver prices continued to retreat after hitting a 14-year high. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made cautious remarks, stressing the need to balance ongoing inflation and a sluggish labor market—calling it "a challenging situation". He reiterated statements from last week, which led to a drop in the interest-free silver price. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, money markets now see a near 90% chance of a Fed rate cut in October, slightly down from 92% the previous day. Traders are awaiting key U.S. data later this week, including the second-quarter GDP annualized price index and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. The S&P Global PMI flash data showed a slowdown in U.S. business activity in September. The composite PMI dipped slightly to 53.6 from 54.6 in August, indicating that the private sector is struggling to strengthen further. The manufacturing PMI fell to 52.0 from 53, signaling weakening growth momentum in the sector. The services PMI slid to 53.9 from 54.5, suggesting potential softening demand. U.S. President Donald Trump once again threatened tariffs on Russia, which could boost the safe-haven metal silver. On Tuesday, Trump warned at the UN General Assembly that the U.S. is prepared to impose "strong new tariffs" if Russia refuses to end the Ukraine war. He also criticized European nations for buying Russian energy, stating, "They are funding the war against themselves," and urged the EU to join Washington in implementing tariffs to ensure their effectiveness.

The U.S. dollar briefly rose toward 97.4 after Powell's more dovish tone in a speech at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce in Rhode Island on Tuesday, where he described the Fed's situation as a "challenging situation." In his prepared remarks, he noted that policymakers face a delicate choice: cutting rates too quickly could reignite inflation, while moving too slowly could lead to unnecessary job losses. Disappointing expectations, Powell offered little guidance on the timing of the next move but emphasized the risks on both sides of the policy debate. Following the September policy meeting, the Fed decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25%, in line with market expectations. The revised Summary of Economic Projections suggests an additional 50 basis points of cuts in 2025, 25 basis points in 2026, and another 25 basis points in 2027.

As shown in the quarterly chart, the Bollinger Bands are expanding upward, with moving averages trending higher. Silver prices have been rallying strongly along the Bollinger Upper Band, and this quarter began with a strong bullish candle. After the MACD golden cross, there are no signs of weakening upward momentum yet. The RSI stands at 75, indicating strong bullish sentiment. The next resistance levels are near the previous high and the psychological levels of 49.8 and 50. However, the RSI has entered overbought territory, raising the possibility of a pullback. But as long as prices do not break below the EMA12, the overall uptrend remains intact. Meanwhile, the 4H chart indicates that prices are oscillating upward along the EMA12 and the Bollinger Upper Band. However, the MACD line and the signal line are nearing a death cross, signaling a potential pullback. If support at the EMA12 is lost, prices may decline toward the EMA50 and EMA200 at 42.8 and 40.6, respectively. Therefore, investors should sell now and buy at lows later.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 44.12

Target price: 42

Stop loss: 46

Support: 42.8/40.6/38.7

Resistance: 45/46/50

The Eurozone’s HCOB Manufacturing PMI slipped back into contractionary territory in September, falling from 50.7 to 49.5 and missing forecasts of a modest expansion at 50.9. In contrast, the Services PMI showed resilience, climbing to 51.4 from August’s reading and comfortably exceeding expectations of 50.5. This divergence reflects a region still grappling with weak industrial activity while service-sector momentum provides some offset.

On the policy front, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Mario Centeno noted on Friday that “the next move will likely be an interest rate cut,” signaling a dovish lean within the ECB. He added that inflation below the 2% threshold cannot be tolerated for too long, while projections suggest price growth could remain under target well into 2028.

Across the Atlantic, S&P Global’s preliminary September Composite PMI for the United States softened to 53.6, missing both forecasts and the previous reading of 54.6. Although the index remains above the key 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction, the moderation highlights cooling momentum. Manufacturing PMI edged down to 52, in line with expectations but weaker than August’s 53, while Services PMI ticked lower to 53.9, exactly matching forecasts yet easing from 54.5 the month before.

Speaking at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce in Rhode Island, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a measured tone, describing the Fed’s current stance as a “challenging situation.” He outlined the trade-off facing policymakers: lowering rates too quickly could rekindle inflationary pressures, while moving too slowly risks triggering avoidable job losses. Powell’s remarks offered little clarity on the timing of the next move, leaving markets to weigh the risks on both sides of the debate.

Other Fed officials reinforced this cautious stance. Vice Chair Michelle W. Bowman stressed that last week’s quarter-point rate cut should be seen as an initial step toward a more neutral policy. She warned that the labor market could weaken rapidly, requiring swifter adjustments if downside risks materialize. Meanwhile, Austan Goolsbee argued that further easing remains possible should inflation continue to moderate toward target, though he dismissed the prospect of a 50-basis-point cut. He described the current stance as only “mildly restrictive,” suggesting the neutral rate is likely 100–125 basis points below present levels. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a 93% chance of another 25-basis-point cut in October, with nearly 77% odds of an additional move in December.

On the 30-minute chart, EURUSD appears to have completed a pullback toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement zone. If this resistance holds and bearish candles continue to form from this area, a deeper correction could unfold, potentially driving the pair back toward 1.1726. From a wave perspective, the recent rebound may represent a completed Wave 2 of the Fibonacci structure, with the projected Wave 3 potentially breaking the current support level and paving the way for a more extended downside move.

The 100- and 200-period moving averages are clustered near 1.1785 and 1.1784, respectively. A sustained close below these levels would likely add to bearish momentum. However, if the price pushes higher and establishes a new swing high, the bearish setup would be invalidated, signaling that bulls may be regaining control.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.1803

Target price: 1.1720

Stop loss: 1.1830

Validity: Oct 03, 2025 15:00:00

In the United States, S&P Global’s Composite PMI softened to 53.6 in its preliminary September reading, slipping from both the forecast and the prior figure of 54.6. Despite the moderation, the index remained comfortably above the expansionary threshold of 50. The Manufacturing PMI eased to 52, matching expectations but falling from 53 in August, while the Services PMI printed at 53.9, exactly in line with forecasts but down from the previous month’s 54.5.

During his Tuesday address at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce in Rhode Island, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a more balanced tone, describing the Fed’s position as a “challenging situation.” In his prepared remarks, Powell highlighted the delicate choice facing policymakers: cutting rates too aggressively risks reigniting inflation, while moving too slowly risks unnecessary job losses.

Expectations were somewhat underwhelmed, as Powell offered little in the way of guidance regarding the timing of the next move. Instead, he focused on the dangers on both sides of the monetary policy debate.

Fed Vice Chair Michelle W. Bowman reinforced that last week’s quarter-point cut should be viewed as an initial step toward a more neutral stance. She cautioned that the labor market could weaken quickly, suggesting that policy adjustments might need to accelerate if risks materialize. Meanwhile, Fed’s Austan Goolsbee argued that while rates could be lowered further should inflation continue trending toward the target, he is not considering a 50-basis-point cut. He described current policy as only “mildly restrictive,” noting that the neutral level is likely 100–125 basis points below current settings.

According to CME’s FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a 93% chance of another 25-basis-point cut in October, with odds of an additional move in December sitting near 77%.

Elsewhere, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stressed on Monday that Canada will need to chart a “more independent course” away from the U.S. trajectory. Meanwhile, Trump’s ongoing attempts to influence the Fed continue to raise questions over the independence of U.S. monetary policy, while his so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs have cast doubt on the dollar’s safe-haven role.

USDCAD is currently trading within a broader downtrend but has struggled to establish new local lows, suggesting that bearish momentum has weakened near the 1.3723 support level. This zone has repeatedly triggered rebounds, and if price once again faces rejection as it approaches the descending trendline, a downside correction back toward that support level could materialize. Short positions around 1.3865 may gain traction if the trendline acts as a firm barrier.

On the 4-hour chart, the 100- and 200-period moving averages rest at 1.3817 and 1.3794 respectively. A close back below these levels could accelerate the corrective move toward the lower boundary of the channel. Meanwhile, RSI is holding near 62, edging closer to overbought conditions. A fresh leg higher could push the pair into overbought territory, a development that traders will be watching closely as a potential trigger for new downside setups.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.3860

Target price: 1.3740

Stop loss: 1.3910

Validity: Oct 03, 2025 15:00:00

Gold extended its rally into uncharted territory on Tuesday, pushing to yet another record as investors leaned heavily on expectations for additional Federal Reserve interest rate cuts while lingering geopolitical risks sustained strong safe-haven flows. At the time of writing, spot prices (XAU/USD) were trading just shy of $3,780, after briefly touching an all-time high of $3,791 earlier in the session.

The yellow metal’s blistering ascent comes against a backdrop of shifting monetary policy dynamics in the United States. The Fed cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points last week, marking its first easing step in over a year. Traders now see at least two more cuts before the end of 2025, a trajectory that has weakened the US Dollar and driven Treasury yields lower. Both moves reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, providing fuel for its relentless climb.

Yet, not all Fed officials appear convinced that the central bank is on a straight path to a prolonged easing cycle. Comments on Monday underscored a degree of hesitation, with most policymakers preferring a cautious approach amid resilient consumer spending and labor market strength. The notable outlier was Governor Stephen Miran, who openly called for more aggressive cuts, warning that policy remains “well into restrictive territory” and risks triggering unnecessary job losses unless borrowing costs are lowered swiftly.

This divergence within the Fed has injected a degree of uncertainty into the near-term policy outlook, and attention is now firmly fixed on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s scheduled remarks later Tuesday. Powell, set to speak at the Economic Club of New York at 16:35 GMT, could provide the next major catalyst for gold if he either reinforces the cautious consensus or leans toward Miran’s call for urgency. Markets will parse his language carefully for signals about whether the Fed intends to accelerate or slow the pace of rate reductions.

Beyond monetary policy, geopolitical tensions continue to add a powerful layer of support for gold. Persistent concerns about global trade frictions, an unsettled Middle East, and uncertainty surrounding U.S. fiscal negotiations have kept demand elevated for traditional safe-haven assets. Investors are also wary of recent volatility in equity markets, where stretched valuations in technology stocks have raised the specter of a pullback.

Technical Analysis From a technical standpoint, gold’s price action remains firmly bullish, with momentum consistently breaking through previously identified resistance levels. Tuesday’s rally saw the metal decisively breach the $3,755 barrier, which had been flagged as a near-term target. Prices continue to trade comfortably above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50), reflecting the market’s strong underlying trend. The dominant upward trajectory is further reinforced by a supportive ascending trendline, which has acted as a reliable foundation throughout the rally.

However, some cautionary signals are emerging. Relative strength indicators (RSI) are now flashing overbought conditions, raising the prospect of a near-term pullback or consolidation phase. While this does not necessarily signal the end of the broader uptrend, it suggests that momentum traders may need to brace for potential volatility around current highs. The emergence of negative divergences on oscillators adds to the case for at least a temporary pause in the rally.

Should prices consolidate, immediate support lies near $3,740, followed by stronger backing around $3,700. A decisive break below those levels could trigger a deeper retracement, though the long-term bias remains overwhelmingly bullish as long as prices hold above the $3,600 handle. On the upside, a sustained push beyond $3,800 could open the door toward $3,850 and eventually the psychological $3,900 mark. TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3775

STOP LOSS: 3740

TAKE PROFIT: 3900