Bulls Could Regain Control at Deep RSI Levels (La opción más natural y fiel a tu idea).

Forex

Economic

Summary:

These depressed RSI levels point to an overextended selloff, creating conditions where buyers could reassert control from current support.

BUY USDCAD

EXP

PENDING

1.37260

Entry Price

1.40200

1.35200

1.37646 -0.00237 -0.17%

Pips

PENDING

1.35200

Exit Price

1.37260

Entry Price

1.40200

U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending August 15 came in better than anticipated, falling to 206,000 from the prior 210,000 reading and beating market forecasts of 212,000. However, the four-week moving average edged up from 199,750 to 204,000, pointing toward a gradual moderation in overall labor market strength.

On the monetary policy front, several Federal Reserve officials delivered notable remarks regarding the economic backdrop and interest rate outlook. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem noted that high bond yields reflect a combination of solid economic growth and robust business investment. He added that while he supported July's rate hike, he maintains an open mind heading into the September policy meeting.

For her part, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly observed that the rise in long-term Treasury yields is a global phenomenon, which partially limits its utility as a pure gauge of domestic conditions. She emphasized that Federal Reserve credibility remains intact and short-term markets continue to react primarily to incoming economic data releases.

These statements follow minutes from the Fed's latest meeting, which showed multiple policymakers remain concerned over persistent inflation pressures. The document indicated that alongside officials like Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan, other committee members would be open to supporting additional rate increases if inflation fails to show further cooling.

In fixed-income markets, the Treasury Department's announcement expanding buyback operations offered temporary relief after 30-year yields breached 5.30% earlier in the week—touching their highest level since 2007. Still, both 10-year and 30-year yields rose roughly six basis points during Thursday's session. While buybacks improve market liquidity and soothe short-term market pressures, they do not erase structural headwinds like elevated fiscal deficits, heavy debt issuance, and ongoing inflation risks.

In Canada, minutes from the Bank of Canada's (BoC) July meeting revealed a balanced posture among policymakers. Officials view the economy as continuing its adjustment to recent external shocks, maintaining expectations for a gradual recovery in growth. However, they expressed concern that medium-term inflation expectations could begin edging higher.

Deliberations highlighted the coexistence of upside risks to inflation alongside downside risks to economic growth. Key sources of uncertainty include oil price trajectories and trade friction with the United States. Furthermore, the BoC acknowledged that the recent growth acceleration could prove transitory, warning that potential new U.S. tariffs remain a key risk for the economic outlook. Bulls Could Regain Control at Deep RSI Levels (La opción más natural y fiel a tu idea)._1

Bulls Could Regain Control at Deep RSI Levels (La opción más natural y fiel a tu idea)._1

Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, USDCAD experienced a strong downside push after touching its local peak at 1.4252 in late June. This sharp movement brought price down toward 1.3553 on May 1, serving as a reminder that market price action unfolds in expansion and pullback cycles. Within this current correction, price could extend down toward its ascending trendline, where local support sits nearby at 1.3726. Should price display a bullish rejection off this technical confluence, buyers could step in to regain control, targeting an expansion toward the 1.4027 resistance level—an area that aligns closely with the 0.50 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone.

Turning to the oscillators, the RSI has dropped into deep oversold territory at the 24 level, marking its lowest reading since May 1. These depressed RSI levels point to an overextended selloff, creating conditions where buyers could reassert control from current support. Meanwhile, the MACD shows a bearish histogram with signal lines dipped into negative territory, supporting the strategy of waiting for price to test support and confirm a bullish reaction before seeking long setups.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.3726

Target price: 1.4020

Stop loss: 1.3520

Validity: Aug 31, 2026 15:00:00

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Bulls Could Regain Control at Deep RSI Levels (La opción más natural y fiel a tu idea).

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