Bullish Momentum May Extend Again to Test Double Top Level

Forex

Economic

Summary:

Price is currently attempting to close above the 200-period moving average; if this materializes alongside a break above the 100-period average, bullish momentum could accelerate higher.

BUY USDCHF

EXP

PENDING

0.80750

Entry Price

0.82000

0.80150

0.81094 +0.00016 +0.02%

Pips

PENDING

0.80150

Exit Price

0.80750

Entry Price

0.82000

In Switzerland, July inflation delivered another downside surprise. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) slipped 0.1% month-over-month, missing market expectations that called for a flat reading. The main drag on price growth came from the transportation sector, where costs fell 0.4% on the month compared to the 0.6% increase expected by consensus.

Looking at individual components, domestic prices rose 0.5% year-over-year, while imported goods prices held steady compared to the previous year. This trajectory highlights easing pressures from imported energy costs, which had previously fueled the inflation pickup seen in earlier months following Middle East geopolitical tensions.

The Swiss National Bank's (SNB) latest outlook places average third-quarter inflation at 0.7% year-over-year. However, recent data suggests a milder path, with quarterly inflation tracking near 0.5%—roughly 0.2 percentage points below official forecasts. Declining fuel prices have been a key driver behind this slowdown, and if this trend holds, inflation could keep running below central bank projections.

On the geopolitical stage, U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated Monday that Iran will not be permitted to obtain a nuclear weapon as a 60-day memorandum of understanding expires without an agreement. Meanwhile, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran would escalate tensions across the strait and the wider region if diplomacy with Washington breaks down.

Data published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the headline Producer Price Index (PPI) remained unchanged in July, following a 0.1% decline in June. On an annual basis, producer inflation slowed to 4.7% from 5.5% previously. Meanwhile, core PPI rose 0.2% month-over-month, decelerating from the 0.4% recorded in the prior period, while its annual rate dropped to 4.2% from 4.7%.

These figures build upon Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which also lined up closely with market expectations. The combination of cooler inflation prints has prompted investors to dial back expectations for an upcoming rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed)—a trend that initially gathered steam after July's disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in roughly a 32% probability of a rate hike in September, down sharply from 55% a week ago. This shift in expectations has driven a more pronounced drop in short-term U.S. Treasury yields, whereas the decline across longer maturities has been more restrained as elevated energy prices keep inflation risks tilted to the upside. Bullish Momentum May Extend Again to Test Double Top Level_1

Bullish Momentum May Extend Again to Test Double Top Level_1

Technical Analysis

USDCHF has entered a consolidation phase following a strong upward impulse, establishing support around 0.8074, where price has bounced higher on several recent occasions. Holding this boundary could offer buying opportunities toward 0.8208—the high reached on June 29 that now acts as local resistance. Meanwhile, the 100 and 200-period moving averages sit at 0.8118 and 0.8102, respectively. Price is currently attempting to close above the 200-period moving average; if this materializes alongside a break above the 100-period average, bullish momentum could accelerate higher.

Turning to the oscillators, the RSI recently touched 39, approaching oversold territory while printing a slight bullish divergence relative to its previous low, signaling that buyers are attempting to regain control quickly. Meanwhile, the MACD shows a bearish histogram that has lost nearly all its depth as it approaches a bullish crossover, while the signal lines recently tested the neutral line; a quick return into positive territory would confirm upside as the path of least resistance.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.8075

Target price: 0.8200

Stop loss: 0.8015

Validity: Aug 28, 2026 15:00:00

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Bullish Momentum May Extend Again to Test Double Top Level

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