Bullish Momentum Intact, Profit-Taking Risk Eyed

Commodity

Summary:

Market expectations for Fed rate cuts remain a structural tailwind for bullion. However, the accumulation of short-term long profits raises the probability of a technical retracement.

BUY XAUUSD

EXP

TRADING

4190.36

Entry Price

4290.00

4150.00

4219.77 +12.60 +0.30%

0.0

Pips

Flat

4150.00

Exit Price

4190.36

Entry Price

4290.00

Fundamentals

The market's focus is now squarely on next week's FOMC meeting and the incoming data slate. With a string of softening macro prints, the implied probability of a Fed cut has been repriced higher, dragging both the DXY and real 10-yr UST yields lower and thereby providing a structural tail-wind for gold. However, investors remain cautious amid the tug-of-war between rate-cut expectations and safe-haven demand, frequently taking profit after short-term gains and leaving gold prices whipsawing within a tight range.

ETF inflows and the continued bid from official-sector buyers (notably EM central banks) still form the medium-term demand floor, but fast-money positioning is hyper-sensitive to scheduled macro catalysts (NFP, PCE) as well as headline-driven geopol risk. Any print or headline that deviates from consensus can trigger an outsized volatility spike.

Moreover, global-rate complex and sovereign-bond flow dynamics are exerting cross-asset gravitational pull on precious-metal valuations. In the Asian session, a tail-less, exceptionally high bid-to-cover ratio at the 10-yr JGB reopening compressed the benchmark yield by around 4 bp. This regional duration richening, convolved with a softening DXY, is re-pricing the cross-currency carry of gold and amplifying physical uptake in yen terms. With the Fed in blackout, the market is warehousing delta risk into tomorrow's claims and core PCE releases, opting for a "tactical sideline" posture that is powering rapid risk-off/risk-on whipsaws between safe-haven bullion and cyclical beta.

At the macro level, the dominant fundamental narrative today is that dovish policy repricing supplies cyclical tailwinds, yet event-driven headline risk and systematic profit-taking are jointly imposing an asymmetric ceiling that frustrates the emergence of a sustained directional extension.

Technical Analysis

From the daily chart, price action has completed a textbook symmetrical-triangle breakout. The clearance of the 4245 structural high validates the pattern and projects the next measured-move objective to 4300.

Immediate short-term resistance is now the 4200–4241 band. A high-conviction, volume-confirmed breakout followed by a daily close above 4241 activates the 4300 extension. Support is watched at 4175–4160. Violation on a closing basis would open a mean-reversion probe toward the 4130–4100 liquidity pocket.

Technically, the simple-moving-average architecture remains in perfect bullish order, underpinning trend persistence. RSI is holding in the upper-neutral band, evidencing positive momentum divergence without extreme overbought conditions.

A thin-volume, news-driven spike into the 4241–4300 corridor would flag a bull-trap and elevate the probability of an intraday bullish-to-bearish reversal (technical give-back).

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 4190.00

Target Price: 4290.00

Stop Loss: 4150.00

Valid Until: December 18, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 4175.05/4163.82

Resistance Levels: 4264.66/4300.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Tank

Commodity

Forex

Summary:

Silver prices have pulled back, ending the two-week rally. But the outlook remains firm as traders increasingly expect a rate cut at Wednesday's FOMC meeting.

SELL XAGUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

57.439

Entry Price

50.000

60.000

57.844 +0.744 +1.30%

18.0

Pips

Profit

50.000

57.259

Exit Price

57.439

Entry Price

60.000

Fundamentals

The metals complex has been rallying for several consecutive months, but silver's advance has far outpaced the broader space. The key driver: silver is no longer valued merely as a precious metal, but as an industrial necessity. Macro and micro fundamentals have converged in a way that is unique to the white metal.

Rate-cut expectations are lifting precious-metal prices. After weeks of uncertainty, the market is once again positioned for easing. Lower rates undermine the U.S. dollar and reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals.

In 2025 global solar installations hit a record high, pushing silver's industrial demand to levels that have driven exchange inventories to decade lows. Photovoltaic demand has exploded over the past five years; incremental demand from newer industries remains comparatively modest. The combination of inelastic supply and elastic demand growth underpins the silver bull market.

Financial flows now dominate the marginal-demand equation. Expectations of a secular decline in fiat-money confidence, sticky inflation, and abundant liquidity are the primary re-rating catalysts. Unlike gold, silver's industrial offtake cannot be substituted easily, and mine supply cannot be ramped quickly. While gold serves as the core hedge, accelerating momentum typically channels hot money into silver, which offers higher beta. Once the macro narrative turns constructive, speculative appetite expands.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is an 89% probability that the FOMC will lower the federal-funds target by 25 bps to 3.50%-3.75% at its December meeting. U.S. labor-market conditions appear to be deteriorating further, entrenching the dovish narrative. The ADP employment report showed 32,000 job losses in November, versus consensus for a 5,000 gain, pressuring the US dollar.

Technical Analysis

On the 1-hour chart, Bollinger Bands are diverging downward and the moving-average ribbon is fanning out bearishly. Price is riding the lower band while the MACD has printed a "death cross" and bullish momentum is fading. This bearish divergence suggests further downside. RSI at 33 has slipped into oversold territory. Immediate support sits at the psychological 57 level and the EMA200 at 55.2.

On the daily, the Bands are still flaring upward and the MAs remain in bullish formation, so the macro up-trend is intact. Yet a Doji Star followed by a large bearish candle makes a retracement toward the EMA12 highly probable. A decisive break below that moving average would flip the trend. RSI reads 68 but its peaks are descending, hinting waning momentum and a potential turning point.

Therefore, traders are recommended to look for shorts on strength.

Silver Breaches $58, Where's the Next Support?_1

Silver Breaches $58, Where's the Next Support?_2

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 57.9

Target Price: 50

Stop Loss: 60

Support: 55/53/50

Resistance Levels: 59/60/65

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Forex

Economic

Summary:

The recent support level at 1.3940, which was also touched on October 8th, forms the shoulders of the pattern.

BUY USDCAD

EXP

TRADING

1.39602

Entry Price

1.40600

1.39000

1.39494 -0.00075 -0.05%

0.0

Pips

Flat

1.39000

Exit Price

1.39602

Entry Price

1.40600

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is set to be heavily influenced by November labor market data, scheduled for release on Friday. The consensus forecast anticipates the Canadian Unemployment Rate will tick higher, reaching 7.0% from the 6.9% rate recorded in October. Meanwhile, the overall size of the labor force is expected to remain generally stable.

The latest third-quarter Labor Productivity figures offered a slightly favorable signal for the Canadian Dollar earlier this week. Productivity increased by 0.9% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), significantly improving from the -1.0% contraction in the preceding quarter and comfortably surpassing the 0.4% forecast. Attention is now firmly fixed on Friday's labor market release, which is considered crucial ahead of the Bank of Canada's (BoC) interest rate decision on December 10th.

The latest U.S. economic data presented a conflicting view of the economy's health. The ISM Services PMI edged up to 52.6 in November from 52.4, surpassing the 52.1 expectation and signaling sustained expansion in the service sector. Conversely, the ADP Employment Change report showed a surprising fall of 32,000 in private sector payrolls in November, drastically missing forecasts for a 5,000 increase. The revised October figure was also downgraded to a lower gain of 47,000. These cuts confirm that private businesses shed 32,000 jobs in November, signaling a clear deceleration from the previous month’s gains.

Amidst the softer labor data, political commentary continues to fuel speculation of a rapid rate-cutting cycle. U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday that he would announce his nominee for the next Fed Chair in early 2026, confirming his statement from Sunday: "I know who I’m going to choose, yes. We will be announcing it." Further adding to the dovish speculation is an unconfirmed report suggesting that former White House Economic Advisor, Kevin Hassett, has emerged as the favored candidate, viewed as an ally who supports the President's call for faster and deeper rate reductions.

Market participants are currently pricing in an approximately 88% probability of a 25 basis point (bp) rate reduction at the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Despite the dovish outlook, U.S. Treasury yields remain firm, with the 10-year Treasury yield sitting at 4.086%, while U.S. real yields hold stable at 1.856%. Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern Signals Bullish Reversal_1

Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern Signals Bullish Reversal_1

Technical Analysis

The USDCAD pair appears to be charting an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IHS) pattern, a classic bullish reversal formation. The recent support level at 1.3940, which was also touched on October 8th, forms the shoulders of the pattern. The local low of 1.3888, reached on October 29th, constitutes the head. Price action has already reacted strongly upward upon reaching this level. If this pattern confirms, we could anticipate a bullish recovery targeting the 1.4063 resistance zone, which represents the most significant short-term hurdle.

Further supporting the bullish case, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached the 26 level, entering clear oversold territory. This extreme reading is likely to attract buyers to initiate long positions from this zone. The 100-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) are closely aligned at 1.4032 and 1.4027, respectively. Their proximity to the local resistance suggests they will act as a price magnet toward those levels during a recovery. Conversely, a strong downward break below the pattern's neckline would invalidate the IHS setup and open the path for a more pronounced decline.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.3960

Target price: 1.4060

Stop loss: 1.3900

Validity: Dec 12, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Forex

Economic

Summary:

This quick reclaiming of the level suggests that a renewed upward move may be underway from this zone.

BUY USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.80017

Entry Price

0.80250

0.79850

0.80275 -0.00085 -0.11%

23.3

Pips

Profit

0.79850

0.80250

Exit Price

0.80017

Entry Price

0.80250

The latest data from the U.S. presented a conflicting view of the economy. The ISM Services PMI edged up slightly to 52.6 in November from 52.4, surpassing the 52.1 expectation and signaling sustained expansion in the crucial service sector. Conversely, the ADP Employment Change report showed that private sector payrolls surprisingly fell by 32,000 in November, drastically missing forecasts for a 5,000 increase. The October figure was also revised to a lower gain of 47,000. These data points confirm that private businesses cut 32,000 jobs in November, missing the estimate for a 10,000 increase and signaling a deceleration from October's revised 49,000 gain.

Amidst the softer labor data, political commentary continues to fuel rate-cut speculation. U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday that he would announce his nominee for the next Fed Chair in early 2026, confirming his Sunday comment: "I know who I’m going to choose, yes. We will be announcing it." Adding fuel to the dovish speculation is an unconfirmed report suggesting that former White House Economic Advisor, Kevin Hassett, is the favored candidate. Hassett is seen as an ally who supports President Trump's call for faster and deeper rate reductions to stimulate the economy.

Market participants are currently pricing in an approximately 88% probability of a 25 basis point (bp) rate reduction at the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. U.S. Treasury yields remain firm, with the 10-year Treasury yield sitting at 4.086%, while real yields hold stable at 1.856%.

In Switzerland, the latest inflation figures for November arrived mixed. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.2% month-over-month (MoM), which aligned with expectations and followed a 0.3% decrease in the prior month. However, the annual rate fell to 0% from 0.1%, landing below the 0.1% forecast.

These mixed inflation readings reinforce expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will maintain its policy rate unchanged in December. Recent commentary from Chairman Martin Schlegel indicated that the threshold for returning to negative interest rates remains "high," although the SNB is prepared to cut if conditions necessitate it. Board member Petra Tschudin also noted that inflation is expected to increase slightly in the coming quarters. Possible Bullish Correction Upon Rapidly Recovering Support_1

Possible Bullish Correction Upon Rapidly Recovering Support_1

Technical Analysis

The USD/CHF pair has rapidly recovered to the 0.8000 psychological level, a point where the price initiated a strong bullish recovery on December 1st. This quick reclaiming of the level suggests that a renewed upward move may be underway from this zone. The bullish case is supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which reached the 27 level , clearly signaling oversold conditions. This extreme reading is expected to attract buyers, with the initial objective being the bearish trendline resistance, near the $0.8025$ level.

The 100-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) on the 1-hour chart are located at $0.8031$ and $0.8049$, respectively. Notably, the 100-period MA aligns closely with the bearish trendline and the $0.618$ Fibonacci retracement level. This confluence zone suggests a high probability that the current corrective move will be drawn toward these levels, where renewed selling pressure could reassert itself.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.8001

Target price: 0.8025

Stop loss: 0.7985

Validity: Dec 12, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Summary:

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock warned that persistent inflation may necessitate another tightening of monetary policy. The Australian dollar surged sharply on Wednesday.

BUY AUDUSD

EXP

PENDING

0.65350

Entry Price

0.68000

0.64400

0.66206 +0.00115 +0.17%

Pips

PENDING

0.64400

Exit Price

0.65350

Entry Price

0.68000

Fundamentals

The AUDUSD extended its gains on Wednesday, hitting its highest level since late October and approaching the 0.6600 mark. The market's initial reaction to disappointing Australian economic growth data proved short-lived, as the likelihood of further monetary policy easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia diminished.

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock testified before the Senate Economic Legislation Committee that the bank remains highly vigilant about inflation pressures rising again and is prepared to act if price increases “persist longer than expected.” She noted that upcoming data releases in the coming months will be crucial for determining whether demand pressures are easing, adding that policymakers may still need to re-tighten monetary policy if signs of inflation resurgence emerge.

When questioned about past budget and inflation forecast errors, Bullock acknowledged that the Reserve Bank of Australia “has not yet succeeded” in bringing inflation back to target levels in a sustainable manner and must continue working toward this goal. She emphasized that the Board must “keep striving to achieve this.”

She noted that with the national debt projected to exceed A$1 trillion and the deficit expected to reach A$42 billion, declining public and private savings—if investment remains unchanged—could “exert upward pressure on the neutral interest rate.”

However, she added that such an outcome is possible, though it depends on both domestic and international factors. She emphasized that while the Reserve Bank of Australia can respond to domestic dynamics, we cannot control global factors.

Market Watch: The prevailing market view is that interest rate cuts are unlikely for an extended period. However, if upcoming data comes in better than expected, the possibility of an earlier rate hike cannot be ruled out.

Market Reprices Australian Interest Rate Outlook, Boosting Bullish Sentiment for the Australian Dollar_1

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the AUDUSD break above 0.6579 further confirms that the pullback from 0.6706 may have ended at 0.6420. The uptrend from the 2025 low of 0.5913 may be resuming and could retest the 0.6706 high. The key question is whether the upward momentum can sustain itself to that level, or if it will weaken as it approaches that level.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 0.6535

Target Price: 0.6800

Stop Loss: 0.6440

Valid Until: December 20, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 0.6549, 0.6514, 0.6468

Resistance: 0.6597, 0.6617, 0.6707

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Summary:

The direction of asset allocation may be shifting, posing challenges to gold's upward momentum.

BUY XAUUSD

EXP

TRADING

4216.39

Entry Price

4346.00

4170.00

4219.77 +12.60 +0.30%

0.0

Pips

Flat

4170.00

Exit Price

4216.39

Entry Price

4346.00

Fundamentals

In today's trading, gold prices fell to US$4,194, down 0.59%, retreating from recent highs.

Gold's upward momentum may face challenges if market sentiment improves next year and asset allocation shifts back toward risk assets.

Although current gold futures positions exceed long-term averages, they remain well below this year's peak levels, potentially signaling a cooling of market optimism following the strong rally at the beginning of the year. However, with inflation persisting despite the ongoing rate-cutting cycle, investors may still increase their allocation to gold.

Central banks' demand for gold is more structural in nature, as the U.S. fiscal deficit has been expanding and emerging market central banks hold relatively low proportions of gold in their foreign exchange reserves.

Market Is Choosing Direction, Watch for Key Levels to Break_1

Technical Analysis

During Wednesday's European session, gold prices hovered near the lower end of their range. Despite mixed market sentiment, prices held above yesterday's low of US$4,163. Overall strength in equity markets was seen as a key factor weighing on the precious metal.

The current intraday high of US$4,230 has become a direct resistance level for bullish momentum. A break above this level would signal an early indication of further upward movement. The next resistance level stands at US$4,246; a breach of this threshold would mark the continuation of last week's rally and target the sell-off level at US$4,346.

On the other hand, should gold prices break below the US$4,182 threshold, the downward trend may continue. If yesterday's low of US$4,163 is breached, prices could test the US$4,100 level before ultimately falling to the converging support zone at US$4,075-US$4,073. This support area is formed by the 200 SMA in the 4H timeframe and the upward trendline established since late October.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 4205

Target Price: 4346

Stop Loss: 4170

Valid Until: December 20, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 4180, 4165, 4154

Resistance: 4220, 4228, 4239

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The Pound Sterling gained against the US Dollar amid rising speculation that White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett could succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair, prompting a weaker Dollar and renewed bullish momentum for GBP/USD.

BUY GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.33001

Entry Price

1.35000

1.31500

1.33428 +0.00157 +0.12%

55.8

Pips

Profit

1.31500

1.33559

Exit Price

1.33001

Entry Price

1.35000

The Pound Sterling (GBP) surged 0.5% on Wednesday to approach 1.3280 against the US Dollar (USD) during European trading hours, as the Greenback came under pressure following growing speculation over the next Federal Reserve (Fed) chair. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the currency against six major peers, slumped to a fresh monthly low near 99.00, reflecting the market’s unease over potential changes in US monetary policy leadership.

Investor attention has sharply shifted to the US White House, where President Donald Trump confirmed on Tuesday that he has narrowed his options for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s successor to a single candidate, with an official announcement expected in early 2026. Speaking to reporters at a White House event, Trump referenced White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett as a potential nominee.

Markets are interpreting the potential appointment of Hassett as bearish for the US Dollar. Hassett has publicly advocated for lower interest rates on multiple occasions, a stance that contrasts with the current hawkish tone at the Fed under Powell. Investors are pricing in the possibility of a shift toward more accommodative US monetary policy, weighing heavily on the Dollar and supporting risk-sensitive assets, including the Pound.

Techncal Analysis

From a technical standpoint, GBP/USD has shown a pronounced recovery after weeks of consolidation and downward pressure. The currency pair recently breached a strong resistance trend line, a level that had been tested multiple times in prior sessions without success. This breakout followed a double bottom formation, providing an initial bullish signal.

Intraday, GBP/USD leveraged support from the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50) while simultaneously adhering to a bullish corrective trend line on a short-term basis. These technical factors fueled renewed momentum, allowing the pair to recover from a key support test near 1.3195. Complementing the bullish scenario, relative strength indicators have emerged with positive signals, further reinforcing the potential for continued gains.

On the daily chart, GBP/USD maintains a robust bullish structure, having surpassed the previous week’s high. This reinforces market confidence that the Pound could extend its rally in the near term. Analysts highlight that the ongoing Dollar weakness, driven by Fed succession uncertainty, could catalyze additional upside pressure for GBP/USD.

The long position appears justified based on both fundamental and technical factors. Key target levels for the pair include 1.337 as the initial take-profit, followed by 1.350 for more extended gains, contingent on the persistence of bullish momentum and a lack of USD recovery.