Bullish Momentum Eases but Trend Holds; Consolidation to Underpin Next Leg Up

Summary:

Gold traded sideways at elevated levels over the weekend. Stronger US jobless claims data dented expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts, slowing gold’s ascent. Meanwhile, receding fears of US military action against Iran sapped safe-haven demand, capping prices. Still, gold is poised for a weekly gain of over 2%, having hit a fresh all-time high intraweek, with the medium-term uptrend remaining intact.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4603.88

Entry Price

4782.00

4539.00

5019.71 +43.74 +0.88%

648.8

Pips

Loss

4539.00

4538.83

Exit Price

4603.88

Entry Price

4782.00

Fundamentals

Gold traded in a consolidative range during Friday’s session. A drop in US initial jobless claims pointed to lingering labor market resilience, cooling bets on an imminent Fed rate cut. This diluted gold’s appeal as a non-interest-bearing asset, curbing further upside.

A marginal retreat in risk aversion also weighed on prices, as concerns over US strikes on Iran eased sharply, narrowing risk premia. That said, gold retained a robust weekly performance, touching an all-time high earlier in the week and on track for a >2% gain. In contrast, silver significantly outperformed gold with an around 15% weekly surge, driven by industrial and speculative demand, even as the Trump administration delayed additional tariffs on critical minerals.

Gold edged lower on Thursday, snapping a three-day streak of marginal record highs (peaking at around $4,630, $4,634 and $4,643). The sentiment shift was closely tied to President Trump’s comments on Iran and his relationship with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump struck a dovish tone, ruling out hasty military action against Iran and downplaying rumors of dismissing Powell before his term ends in May, which cooled short-term market sentiment.

While the short-term uptrend has paused, the core drivers supporting precious metals remain unchanged. Expectations for a global monetary policy pivot, lingering geopolitical uncertainties, and the long-term outlook for lower real interest rates continue to underpin gold. Against this backdrop, gold is likely to enter a phase of consolidation to build momentum for a subsequent trend rally, rather than reversing course.

Bullish Momentum Eases but Trend Holds; Consolidation to Underpin Next Leg Up_1

Technical Analysis

Gold’s price swings were limited on Friday. After a brief dip to $4,581, prices held above $4,600. However, overbought daily indicators (plus RSI bearish divergence) keep downside risks intact.

Initial key support lies at $4,580 (the consolidation range’s secondary floor), followed by the range bottom at $4,564. A break below this level could trigger a sharp selloff.

Nonetheless, gold’s broader uptrend remains unbroken. For a downside reversal, a head-and-shoulders pattern would need to form on the 4-hour chart, whereas current price action resembles a periodic harami pattern. Therefore, the strategy recommendation is to buy on dips amid base-building.

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 4600

Target Price: 4782

Stop Loss: 4539

Valid Until: 13 Feb, 2026, 23:55:00

Support: 4581/4550/4500/4458

Resistance Levels: 4643/4687/4700/4720

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