Bullish Breakout Opens the Way for a More Extended Upside Move

Forex

Economic

Summary:

For this reason, a temporary pullback toward the previously identified area of interest would provide a healthier setup for the bullish structure to develop further.

BUY EURCHF

EXP

PENDING

0.92050

Entry Price

0.93250

0.91600

0.92443 +0.00108 +0.12%

Pips

PENDING

0.91600

Exit Price

0.92050

Entry Price

0.93250

Swiss National Bank (SNB) President Martin Schlegel stated that the policy rate remains the central bank's primary monetary policy instrument during a speech titled “Transmission and Implementation of Monetary Policy in Switzerland,” delivered at a conference in Zurich on Thursday.

Schlegel also highlighted that the SNB has successfully achieved its price stability objective throughout the current century. He explained that the central bank's monetary policy strategy has demonstrated its effectiveness across a wide range of economic conditions. Additionally, he emphasized that the Swiss franc continues to maintain relatively strong safe-haven characteristics compared with other currencies, reinforcing its position during periods of market uncertainty.

Eurozone headline inflation increased to 4.0% year-on-year in October, compared with 3.8% in September, largely driven by rising energy costs. Meanwhile, core inflation remained unchanged at 2.5%, indicating that the latest increase in overall price pressures has been primarily concentrated in the energy component, while underlying inflationary pressures have remained relatively stable.

The European Central Bank (ECB) kept its deposit rate unchanged at 2.50% in October, following a cumulative 50 basis points of increases earlier this year. The decision came as higher energy costs pushed Eurozone inflation further above the central bank's 2% target. Headline inflation reached 4.0% year-on-year in October, while core inflation remained stable at 2.5%, suggesting that the recent acceleration in inflation has not yet translated into broader price pressures across the economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% in December, according to a Reuters poll published on Thursday. All 71 economists surveyed anticipate an increase next month. Among them, 46 expect the deposit rate to peak at 2.75%, while the remaining 25 foresee another increase, potentially during the first quarter of 2027.

Economists have also revised their inflation projections higher compared with the previous month and now expect Eurozone inflation to remain at approximately twice the ECB's 2% target at least through the second quarter of 2027. This suggests that monetary policy could remain restrictive for longer as the central bank continues to address persistent inflationary pressures. Bullish Breakout Opens the Way for a More Extended Upside Move_1

Bullish Breakout Opens the Way for a More Extended Upside Move_1

Technical Analysis

EURCHF has broken above its descending trendline, establishing a stronger bullish structure while holding firmly above the 100-period moving average, currently located at 0.9206. Meanwhile, the 200-period moving average stands at 0.9269 and represents the next relevant resistance level. If the pair manages to break above this area, the bullish momentum could extend toward 0.9327, where an important volume zone from mid-October is located. This area could attract additional buying interest and provide a potential upside target. However, a more favorable entry would be a retest of the former descending trendline, now aligned with the local support area around 0.9206, allowing the market to confirm the breakout before attempting another upward move.

Regarding the oscillators, the RSI is currently positioned around 65 and approaching overbought territory relatively quickly, suggesting that there is limited room for an immediate continuation without some relief in buying pressure. For this reason, a temporary pullback toward the previously identified area of interest would provide a healthier setup for the bullish structure to develop further. Meanwhile, the MACD displays a bullish histogram that has lost most of its previous depth, although both signal lines remain firmly positioned within positive territory. This indicates that despite the reduction in momentum, the broader directional bias remains positive, with the path of least resistance still pointing to the upside.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.9205

Target price: 0.9325

Stop loss: 0.9160

Validity: Nov 25, 2026 15:00:00

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Bullish Breakout Opens the Way for a More Extended Upside Move

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