BTCUSDT：The Low Box has Broken Through, and the Short-Term Bullish Idea Remains BULLISH

Summary:

BTCUSDT Walked out of the Previous Low Box Shock Range, Chose the Direction of the Bullish Rise, Short-Term Should Maintain the Bullish Idea, Pullback to Continue to Do Long.

BUY BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

20402.4

Entry Price

21600.0

19400.0

38139.1 +621.6 +1.65%

460.6

Pips

Profit

19400.0

20863.0

Exit Price

20402.4

Entry Price

21600.0

Fundamental Plane

Recently, a Series of US Economic Data has Performed Poorly, Economic Weakness has Raised Expectations that the Fed Will Slow the Pace of Interest Rate Hikes in the Future.The Dollar Retreated Markedly from its Highs, Showing Signs of Turning, Market Sentiment Risk Appetite Rose, and Risky Assets such as Cryptocurrencies Rebounded En Masse. As the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada Slow Down the Pace of Interest Rate Hikes, it may Encourage More Central Banks to Join the Ranks and Further Support Non-US Assets.

In Addition, Although the Cryptocurrency Market Sentiment is Weak and Trading is still not very Active, the Report of Cryptocurrency Company Coinshares Shows that There was a Small Inflow of Funds in the Crypto Market Last Week, and the Trading Volume Increased by 77% from the Previous Week, of which the Main Force of Bitcoin Crypto Market Trading, with a Net Inflow of $13 Million Last Week and a Cumulative Inflow of $310 Million so far this Year, Indicates that Investors' Trading Activities are Recovering and Confidence is Showing Signs of Recovery.

BTCUSDT：The Low Box has Broken Through, and the Short-Term Bullish Idea Remains BULLISH_1

Technical Plane

BTCUSDT：The Low Box has Broken Through, and the Short-Term Bullish Idea Remains BULLISH_2

From the 4-Hour Chart, After Nearly a Month, BTCUSDT Finally Got Rid of the Previous Low Sideways Shock Range, and Quickly Moved Higher, the Short-Term Trend Turned More, and has Now Completed the Confirmation of the Upper Support Level of the Shock Range, after the Short-Term Adjustment, there is still the Possibility of Further Upside.

The Operation is Mainly Low, You Can Try to Go Long when the Price Pulls Back to Around 20400, the Target is Set near the Upper Pressure Level of 21700, and the Stop Loss is Set below 20000.

Trading Advice

Direction Of The Transaction: Long

Entry Point: 20400

Target Price: 21600

Stop Loss: 19400

Support: 20400/20000

Resistance: 21000/21700

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

Gold May Fall to 1623.00

Jason

Summary:

Given the market's current aggressive expectations, the Fed's statement on slowing rate hikes may be carefully worded and less than the market expects, which could be bearish for gold.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1656.97

Entry Price

1633.92

1669.50

2043.18 +2.23 +0.10%

125.3

Pips

Loss

1633.92

1669.61

Exit Price

1656.97

Entry Price

1669.50

Fundamentals

Gold rose 0.87% on Tuesday. The JOLTs Job Openings unexpectedly moved higher yesterday, which made the market expectations of interest rate hikes heat up, supporting the dollar to the upside, but only to recover the previous decline, and did not continue to put downward pressure on gold. With the recent release of important U.S. data, the expectations for a rate hike that had previously been "suppressed" are gradually heating up. Before the Fed Interest Rate Decision, market expectations diverged significantly. Meanwhile, the entire financial market is currently waiting for the Fed's policy meeting, as what the Fed says at this meeting is getting more attention than what it does.

The 75-basis point rate hike at this meeting is basically fixed. And the market is more concerned about whether the Fed will continue to stick to its stance of aggressive rate hikes or will be moderate. Given the current aggressive market expectations, once the Fed confirms that it is starting to slow down rate hikes, its wording is likely to be quite careful, which could disappoint the market. This is because the Fed will inevitably become less aggressive in terms of the pace of rate hikes as further rate hikes move into restrictive policy territory, and the Fed has never disguised it. However, this will probably make the market think that this is a signal to stop raising rates, or even to start lowering rates (after all, the market is used to "jumping the gun"). Hence, it is very difficult for the Fed to reduce the rate hike for the first time, and a slight adjustment in policy can easily be misinterpreted as a "policy shift". This is not what the Fed likes to see. This may also be bearish for gold.

Overall, the Fed's tone may change following the policy meeting, focusing on the idea that "it's not time to slow down rate hikes but can start planning to slow them down". The dollar's gains may be blocked, but not gone, which depends on the instant change in market expectations. In other words, the dollar trend after the Interest Rate Decision may be more complicated.

Technical Analysis

In the 4H chart, gold is currently in the ascending channel and triangle range inside, temporarily blocked by the historical trend in the 1679.99 - 1660.27 oscillation range bottom, while the 200 SMA is also near this line, the strong resistance for the short term. Strong support is 1633.92 in the short term. The focus needs to be on the Fibonacci Retracement of 1623.00, which has supported several recent lows in gold; if the gold drops below the line, it will start a new round of declines while refreshing new lows. XAUUSD: Gold May Fall to 1623.00_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 1656.97

Target price: 1633.92

Stop loss: 1669.5

Support: 1649.39/1643.71/1639.12/1633.92

Resistance: 1656.87/1660.27/1666.34/1672.10

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Multiple Positive Blessings, Oil Prices Remain BULLISH

Winkelmann

Russia-Ukraine Conflict Commodity

Summary:

Demand Growth Expectations are Optimistic, Geopolitical Risks are Rising, Crude Oil Inventory Data is Declining, and Multiple Positives Jointly Support the Recovery of Oil Prices.

BUY BRENT

Close Time

CLOSED

93.500

Entry Price

97.700

91.000

81.403 -0.027 -0.03%

250.0

Pips

Loss

91.000

Exit Price

93.500

Entry Price

97.700

Fundamental Plane

Last Weekend, Due to the Attack of Ukrainian Drones on The Russian Black Sea Fleet in Crimea, Russia Withdrew from the Agreement on the Export of Grain to the Black Sea Promoted by the United Nations, and the Situation in Russia and Ukraine Continued to Escalate. As the EU Tightens Sanctions Against Russia, the Oil Market Could See Serious Supply Disruptions. According to the Wall Street Journal, Saudi Arabia Issued A Warning that Iran Is About to Launch an Attack on Targets in Saudi Arabia, and Geopolitical Risks in the Middle East Provide Support for Oil Prices.

In Addition, Opec Released The World Petroleum Outlook 2022, Saying that the Global Economic Recovery is Stronger than Previously Expected. This, Combined with the Global Prioritization of Energy Security over the Energy Transition, will Drive Oil Demand Growth and Raise the Previous Forecast for 2023 by 1.4 Million B/D, Which is A Potential Positive for Oil Prices.

In the Short Term, Market Expectations for the Fed's Rate Hike to Decelerate from December are Increasing. the Dollar Struggled a Bit, Sentiment Appetite Warmed Up, and Crude Oil Prices for Risk-Sensitive Commodities also Picked Up. Last Week, U.S. Api Crude Oil Inventories Unexpectedly Plunged by 6.5 Million Barrels, and the Eia Crude Oil Inventory Data to be Released Within the Day is Expected to Further Push Up Oil Prices.

Technical Plane

BRENT: Multiple Positive Blessings, Oil Prices Remain BULLISH_1

From the 4-Hour Chart, Brent Continued the Shock Recovery Trend. Prices Previously Consolidated Around 91.5 for a Long Time, then Broke Through the High and Completed the Retracement, Short-Term by the Upward Trend Line Support, There is Room for Further Upside, the Overall Maintenance of the Bullish Tone. If There is a Pullback in the Short-Term, the Dip Can Still Do Long, the Nearest Support Below is Located near 93.5.

Trading Advice

Direction Of The Transaction: Long

Entry Point: 93.5

Target Price: 97.7

Stop Loss: 91.0

Support: 91.5/93.5

Resistance: 96.3/98.0

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

High Consolidation Goes Down as Topping Signs Become More Prominent

Winkelmann

Forex Central Bank

Summary:

The market speculation about the rising possibility of the Fed slowing down the pace of interest rate hikes in the future; if this expectation is confirmed, it will further depress the US dollar, and the USDCAD faces the continued risk of declining from its highs.

SELL USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.37000

Entry Price

1.35000

1.38700

1.35636 -0.00085 -0.06%

25.5

Pips

Profit

1.35000

1.36745

Exit Price

1.37000

Entry Price

1.38700

Fundamental

Currently, the market has digested the Fed's expectation of a 75 basis point rate hike in November. As a rare dovish voice has emerged within the Fed, some expect the Federal Reserve will signal a slower pace of tightening after the meeting to assess the economic impact of the raised interest rates. Furthermore, an increasing number of financial data indicators have declined, which implies a heightened risk of recession in the US economy and suggests that the Fed's series of austerity measures have achieved initial success.

Recently, the RBA and the Bank of Canada have both slowed the pace of rate hikes, which gives a reference to other central banks slowing down their rate hikes. As we have seen, the recent rise in the US dollar has become noticeably weaker, and its powerful upward trend may be getting closer to its end as it approaches the peak of the Fed rate hike expected by the market. Although, the market fluctuations will become more intense the closer we reach the dollar's peak.

With market sentiment broadly buoyed, plus the escalating situation in Russia and Ukraine, the Risk-sensitive commodity prices have generally rebounded and rallied, supporting the commodity currency CAD in the short term. With the Fed resolution approaching, the market fluctuations are likely to increase, and there is the risk of short-term detrended price oscillators. If the Fed resolution does release the signals to slow the rate hikes in the future or any hints to confirm the Fed's not-so-tough stance, it will further stimulate the financial markets and extend the USD's decline against other currencies.

Technical Analysis

USDCAD: High Consolidation Goes Down as Topping Signs Become More Prominent_1

From the daily chart, the USDCAD consolidation at high levels continued for over a month, and the indicator RSI has been falling from the overbought area. The trend has signs of reversal, and if it effectively breaks through 1.3500, it will open a new downward trend.

USDCAD: High Consolidation Goes Down as Topping Signs Become More Prominent_2

According to the 4H chart, the USDCAD has been swinging lower since the highs, with a short-term bias towards the short side. The market may fluctuate drastically before and after the Fed resolution is announced, and there is a possibility of repeated pulling, so patiently wait for the shorting opportunity after the total adjustment is over.

You can try to go short when the price rallies to near 1.3700; the target price is set at the support of 1.3500, and the stop loss is above 1.3850.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: short

Entry point: 1.3700

Target price: 1.3500

Stop loss: 1.3870

Support: 1.3500/1.3570

Resistance: 1.3830/1.3700

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Breakthrough Brewing, Retracement Could Be Long

King Ten

Commodity

Summary:

The short-term breakout of WTI through the previous oscillation range may continue the trend. However, the better cost performance trade is to go long the Brent/WTI crude oil spreads.

BUY WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

88.600

Entry Price

92.600

84.800

76.512 -0.077 -0.10%

24.8

Pips

Profit

84.800

88.848

Exit Price

88.600

Entry Price

92.600

Fundamental

The API data revealed that US crude oil inventories plunged by about 6.5 million barrels in the week of 28th October. The petrol stocks declined by about 2.6 million barrels, and the distillate stocks increased by about 870,000 barrels.

On 1st November, Interfax reported that in October, Russia's crude oil production (excluding condensate) was well below its monthly production quota at 9.9 million barrels per day. In November, Russia's oil production quota will be reduced to 10.5 million barrels per day from 11 million barrels per day, said Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak on Tuesday.

The U.S. Energy Security Envoy said that the U.S. needs to buyback 200 million barrels of petroleum to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), overlaid with high geopolitical risks and a plunge in U.S. API crude inventories, the general short-term view is supportive of international oil prices, which in turn will boost overall market sentiment in the crude oil sector from the cost side. In addition, the Brent/WTI crude oil spread has narrowed to the narrowest level in a fortnight, but with the end of the US oil replenishment, we will focus on trading opportunities for a wide spread in the later part of the year to short WTI and long Brent oil.

Technical Analysis

According to the 1-hour level chart, the current price has already broken through the previous shoulder position, and it has formed an inverted image, so the radicals should wait for the retracement to go long with small positions. WTI: Breakthrough Brewing, Retracement Could Be Long_1

WTI: Breakthrough Brewing, Retracement Could Be Long_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: long

Entry price: 88.600

Target price: 92.600

Stop loss: 84.800

Support: 88.000, 84.800

Resistance: 89.200, 92.800

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Dollar Seems to Have Last Heat, Ready to Go Long on Pullbacks

King Ten

Summary:

Short positions are concerned that Fed Chairman Powell may release signals about slowing rate hikes. However, it may be difficult to expect more dovish noises from the FOMC resolution this Thursday.

BUY USDX

Close Time

CLOSED

111.280

Entry Price

113.800

109.000

102.744 -0.009 0.00%

64.5

Pips

Profit

109.000

111.925

Exit Price

111.280

Entry Price

113.800

Fundamentals

Recently, Nick Timiraos, a reporter for the Wall Street Journal, known as the "Fedwire," wrote that the Fed might consider hinting to narrow the rate hike in December.

However, on Oct. 30, Timiraos tweeted again, suggesting that U.S. consumers' savings levels remain strong and that this abundance of cash could mean higher interest rates for longer. On Sunday morning local time, on a TV show, Timiraos even issued an even louder hawkish warning - while the risk of doing too much is a recession, the risk of not doing enough is that inflation stays high and a larger recession will follow.

Overall, it is difficult for inflation to go down in the short term and for interest rate hikes to slow down during the year. This Thursday (Nov. 3) the Fed will announce its interest rate resolution and it may be difficult to expect more dovish noises.

Technical Analysis

From the daily chart, the US dollar index is in the bottom of the wave 3, and so on the retracement of sufficient accumulation. Technically there is an uptrend to start, but the more to the end the longer it takes to accumulate, and the greater the depth of retracement. It is appropriate to go long on lows after retracement. USDX: Dollar Seems to Have Last Heat, Ready to Go Long on Pullbacks_1

USDX: Dollar Seems to Have Last Heat, Ready to Go Long on Pullbacks_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry point: 111.28

Target point: 113.80

Stop loss point: 109.00

Support: 109.60, 108.20

Resistance: 113.20, 115.00

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

The Prices Will Witness an Oversold Rebound as Bears Take Profit

Eva Chen

Summary:

The nickel metal market opened higher in early trading, while the bears weakened as the market became more cautious.

SELL NICKEL

EXP

EXPIRED

24575.000

Entry Price

21908.000

26400.000

17067.025 +238.000 +1.41%

Pips

EXPIRED

21908.000

23942.475

Exit Price

24575.000

Entry Price

26400.000

Fundamentals

Nickel opened higher in early trading, with the primary market driving the rally. Based on the current spot price, the production profit margin of China precursor sulfate has been reduced to a negative value. In theory, this could discourage them from buying briquettes and ease the pressure of stock outflow from the exchange. However, such spot profit margin measurement does not always provide a reliable indicator as some producers' raw material purchase and sales prices are not based on spot prices. In addition, nickel is the largest single-cost component for precursor manufacturers, accounting for more than 50% on average, depending on battery composition.

It is reported that nickel products have entered the Chinese market. The first batch of abrasive products has been shipped to China, which has helped to increase the supply of raw materials for precursor manufacturers, thus seeing a decrease in tenders for briquettes, further easing the pressure on the outflow of shares from the exchange.

In the short term, these developments will reduce the bears of nickel prices. As inventories on the exchanges continue to fall, investors will remain wary of nickel bears, although some may temporarily take profits.

NICKEL: The Prices Will Witness an Oversold Rebound as Bears Take Profit_1

Technical Analysis

The FOMC will announce its latest interest rate resolution on Wednesday, and it is widely expected to announce a 75-basis-point interest rate hike to bring the federal funds rate to 4.00%. The Fed's rate hike could put further upward pressure on commodity prices.

As nickel prices opened higher today, the sentiment in the market fluctuated to a large extent. The price is expected to rise further in the long-term structural adjustment at the bottom of the U-shaped pattern. The bulls first tested the previous high of the U-shaped pattern at 23139, then followed by a 50% Fibonacci retracement at 23301 from 25672 to 20882, and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 23847. However, the end of this round of bullish momentum is expected to be limited to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 23826. It is recommended to pay attention to the bullish trend and go short at the highs.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 24575

Target price 21908

Stop loss: 26400

Deadline: 2022-11-15 20:00:00

Support: 22821, 22362

Resistance: 23253, 23847

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Thomas

Analyst

I am good at analyzing and interpreting the political and economic situation in Southeast Asia to find investment opportunities.

Ranking

Articles

Win Rate

0.00%

P/L Ratio

1.26

Focus on

ETH-USDT, BTC-USDT, USDCNH

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BTCUSDT：The Low Box has Broken Through, and the Short-Term Bullish Idea Remains BULLISH

Fundamental Plane

Technical Plane

Trading Advice

Gold May Fall to 1623.00

Multiple Positive Blessings, Oil Prices Remain BULLISH

Fundamental Plane

Technical Plane

Trading Advice

High Consolidation Goes Down as Topping Signs Become More Prominent

Fundamental

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Breakthrough Brewing, Retracement Could Be Long

Fundamental

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Dollar Seems to Have Last Heat, Ready to Go Long on Pullbacks

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

The Prices Will Witness an Oversold Rebound as Bears Take Profit

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Risk Disclosure