Bearish Correction Looms as EURUSD Rejects Structural Resistance at 1.1829

Forex

Economic

Summary:

While the MACD signal lines are currently trending toward the neutral threshold, a decisive crossover into negative territory would provide the final technical confirmation

SELL EURUSD

EXP

PENDING

1.18290

Entry Price

1.16250

1.19150

1.17390 -0.00039 -0.03%

Pips

PENDING

1.16250

Exit Price

1.18290

Entry Price

1.19150

In Europe, the latest German Producer Price Index (PPI) data revealed a substantial 2.5% monthly surge in March. This represents the strongest reading since August 2022, effectively confirming burgeoning upside risks to inflation catalyzed by the ongoing hostilities involving Iran. These figures follow a trend of robust wholesale price action and elevated consumer inflation prints across several EU member states reported last week. Consequently, systemic pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to implement interest rate hikes in the coming months has intensified significantly.

Against this backdrop, ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel recently emphasized that the upcoming April policy decision remains heavily contingent upon evolving developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Highlighting a persistent lack of "sufficient institutional clarity" regarding the geopolitical landscape, Nagel underscored that the ECB intends to maintain "full optionality" in its upcoming deliberations. He further clarified that there is no predetermined commitment regarding interest rate trajectories, reiterating the bank’s primary and unwavering mandate to ensure long-term price stability amidst external shocks.

On the geopolitical front, the high-stakes, two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran is rapidly approaching its expiration this Wednesday without a finalized framework agreement in place. Over the weekend, tensions reached a fever pitch as Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, demanding an immediate termination of the U.S. maritime blockade that has prevented the navigation of Iranian-flagged vessels. Simultaneously, the U.S. Navy seized an Iranian ship that had reportedly ignored prior warnings to return to its port of origin, further complicating the diplomatic off-ramp.

In Washington, Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh is prepared to testify before lawmakers during his confirmation hearing this Tuesday. According to his prepared opening remarks obtained by Reuters, Warsh will emphasize a steadfast commitment to ensuring that the "conduct of monetary policy remains strictly independent" from political influence.

Meanwhile, Fed officials have formally entered their "blackout period" in preparation for the April 28–29 monetary policy meeting. While market participants broadly expect the central bank to maintain the current interest rate range, expectations for year-end easing have been recalibrated; markets had previously priced in approximately 14 basis points of relaxation toward the close of 2026, a projection that is now under scrutiny. This follows a cooling but resilient U.S. economic landscape where Initial Jobless Claims outperformed expectations at 207,000, though Industrial Production recorded a sharp 0.5% contraction in March, led by declines in the automotive and utility sectors. Bearish Correction Looms as EURUSD Rejects Structural Resistance at 1.1829_1

Bearish Correction Looms as EURUSD Rejects Structural Resistance at 1.1829_1

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD has executed a powerful bullish impulse, ascending from the 1.1410 floor established on March 13 to a local peak of 1.1851 on April 17. However, the pair encountered significant resistance at the 1.1829 handle, where it suffered a decisive bearish rejection. This suggests that the 1.1829–1.1851 zone is currently functioning as a barrier that bulls are struggling to overcome.

Given this rejection, the path of least resistance now appears to favor a corrective downward move. Our primary downside objective is situated at the 1.1619 support floor. This target carries high technical confluence as it aligns almost perfectly with the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement level and sits just beneath the 100 and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs), currently tracking at 1.1647 and 1.1601, respectively. A mean-reversion move toward this high-interest zone is a highly probable scenario in the near term.

Our analysis of momentum oscillators provides further validation for a corrective bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently struck the 80 level, moving deep into extreme overbought territory. Such levels typically precede technical exhaustion and invite sell-side participation.

Simultaneously, the MACD is already printing a bearish histogram that is actively seeking to gain negative depth. While the signal lines are currently trending toward the neutral threshold, a decisive crossover into negative territory would provide the final technical confirmation required for a more pronounced downward expansion toward the 1.1619 handle.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.1829

Target price: 1.1625

Stop loss: 1.1915

Validity: Apr 30, 2026 15:00:00

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Bearish Correction Looms as EURUSD Rejects Structural Resistance at 1.1829

Technical Analysis

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