AUD/USD under pressure

Forex

Economic

Summary:

As of now, AUD/USD trades around 0.6610–0.6620. Despite recent Aussie strength, a mix of firm domestic Aussie inflation and hawkish bias from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) which is expected to hold rates at 3.60% through 2026 may limit AUD gains...

SELL AUDUSD

EXP

PENDING

0.66100

Entry Price

0.65400

0.66500

0.66404 +0.00313 +0.47%

Pips

PENDING

0.65400

Exit Price

0.66100

Entry Price

0.66500

Overview

AUD/USD briefly rose above 0.6600, driven by commodity strength and some optimism about global risk sentiment. But the backdrop is turning ambiguous. Recent Australian data show household spending surged by 1.3% in October the largest rise in nearly two years which pushes up inflation risk and could force the RBA to keep monetary policy tighter for longer. Markets now expect the RBA to maintain the cash rate at 3.60% through 2026 rather than cut.

On the US side, the dollar (USD) had weakened recently due to dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed), but that could reverse if upcoming data surprises to the upside or if risk sentiment shifts giving USD a rebound potential, which would weigh on AUD/USD.

This backdrop limited upside for AUD, possible USD bounce, and sticky inflation increases the risk that the recent AUD strength is unsustainable.

Market sentiment

Sentiment seems to be re-assessing the Aussie rally. On one hand, investors had been supporting AUD via risk-on flows and commodity tailwinds. On the other, rising domestic inflation and hawkish RBA expectations have injected caution. Some traders may now view recent highs as a short-term peak rather than the start of a strong uptrend.

Globally, the USD remains vulnerable, but with markets on edge ahead of major US inflation data, any surprises might spark a USD rebound. If that happens, risk assets including AUD could be hit. The mixed sentiment around rate expectations and global risk makes AUD/USD more prone to reversal than conviction buying.

Technical analysis

On M15, AUD/USD’s recent climb toward and just above 0.6600 likely pushed price near the upper band of a 20-period Bollinger channel, suggesting overextension. If price fails to sustain above the mid-band (likely near 0.6580–0.6590) and begins to show hesitation (small candles, long upper wicks), that often signals a mean-reversion move downward.

Given the tougher macro outlook for AUD and potential USD strength, the pair may re-test support zones near 0.6560–0.6540 (lower Bollinger band / prior congestion). A breakdown below those could open deeper levels (0.6510–0.6480) if risk sentiment deteriorates.

Ichimoku on M15 would likely reflect a stretched up-move: price could be far above Tenkan-sen/Kijun-sen, with lagging span warning of weak support below setting up a context where a “pullback to equilibrium” is plausible.

If we overlay a momentum oscillator (e.g. stochastic or RSI) on M15, it's reasonable to expect overbought conditions from the recent rally increasing the odds of a short-term bearish correction.

Trade idea

Entry: 0.661

Take Profit: 0.6550–0.6540

Stop Loss: 0.6645–0.6650

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Gerik

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin is trading around $92,400–$92,500, having rebounded from recent dips below $85,000. With renewed institutional optimism (e.g. long-term bullish forecasts) and improving technical structure...

BUY BTC-USDT

EXP

PENDING

92500.0

Entry Price

96000.0

89500.0

90515.2 -2453.7 -2.64%

Pips

PENDING

89500.0

Exit Price

92500.0

Entry Price

96000.0

Overview

Bitcoin recently took a heavy hit, falling as low as the mid-$80,000 range amid a broad crypto sell-off and macroeconomic uncertainty. But during the last 48–72 hours, BTC has recovered sharply reclaiming the $90,000 region, and now stabilizing in the low $90Ks. The rebound seems supported by renewed investment flows, possibly including institutional interest, and by broader dollar weakness and softer bond yields which tend to lift risk assets like crypto. At the same time, recent commentary from major financial institutions projecting long-term price potential for Bitcoin provides a macro narrative that may lure longer-term buyers.

Market sentiment

Investor sentiment in crypto appears cautiously optimistic. After the sharp drawdown, many market participants seem to view the recent dip as a wash-out, possibly offering a buying opportunity rather than the start of a deeper crash. Some large-scale forecasts suggest substantial upside over the next 6–12 months if certain macro and sector conditions hold.

The rebound from $84,000+ to ~$92,500 in short order has returned BTC to modest positive territory for the year, which may revive confidence among both retail and institutional holders.

Technical view

Bitcoin rebounds near-term bullish bias remains intact_1

On recent price action, Bitcoin’s rebound off the lows suggests liquidity-seeking behavior and a potential short-term bottom formation. The bounce back above $90,000 and stabilizing near $92,400 suggests demand is returning. If we were to chart BTC on a shorter timeframe like M15 or H1, one might expect a recovery wave with momentum backing further upside especially if price breaks above recent intraday resistance around $93,000–$94,000. Given volatility, this could lead to a test of $95,000–$96,000 in the near term. The wider macro-fundamental backdrop (lower yields, risk-on sentiment) supports such a move.

Trade idea

Entry: $92,500–$92,600 BUY BTC/USD

Take Profit (near-term): $96,000–$97,000

Stop Loss: $89,500–$90,000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Forex

Economic

Summary:

Adding pressure for a pullback, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached the 70 level, indicating overbought conditions.

SELL EURUSD

EXP

TRADING

1.16700

Entry Price

1.15220

1.17100

1.16517 +0.00072 +0.06%

0.0

Pips

Flat

1.15220

Exit Price

1.16700

Entry Price

1.17100

Recent U.S. economic data revealed that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell below economists' estimates for the week ending November 29th. Initial jobless claims came in at 191,000, comfortably lower than the 220,000 forecast and representing a decrease from last week’s figures, which were revised slightly higher from 216,000 to 218,000.

Meanwhile, continuing claims for the week ending November 22nd were recorded at 1.939 million, a slight drop from the prior week’s 1.943 million. Separately, the Challenger Job Report disclosed that employers announced 71,321 job cuts in November. While this marked a 24% increase compared to the figures from the previous year, it was a notable 53% decrease from the elevated number announced in October.

Despite the recent improvement in initial claims, market participants still price in more than an 85% probability of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s December 9-10 meeting, a sentiment largely sustained by Wednesday’s disappointing ADP employment change data.

Trilateral negotiations between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine aimed at achieving peace continue without clear progress. Russian President Vladimir Putin commented that his meeting with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff was "very useful." In recent hours, however, Russian attacks have resulted in five fatalities in the Donetsk and Kherson regions. Several Ukrainian representatives are scheduled to meet with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Washington this Thursday.

In the Eurozone, data released by Eurostat revealed that Retail Sales stagnated in October, following an upwardly revised 0.1% increase in September, and missed the market expectation for further 0.1% growth. On a year-over-year basis, however, sales increased at a rate of 1.5%, surpassing the 1.4% forecast and exceeding the 1.0% reading from September.

The Euro has recently received support from strong final figures in the HCOB Eurozone Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) released on Wednesday. Furthermore, ECB President Christine Lagarde delivered positive commentary regarding the Eurozone economy, assessing that resilient household spending and a strong labor market are supporting the region's economy, and that core inflation remains consistent. These comments suggest the ECB is likely to maintain stable interest rates following its December 18th meeting. Oversold RSI Open Selling Opportunities at Resistance_1

Oversold RSI Open Selling Opportunities at Resistance_1

Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair is currently exhibiting a bearish reaction after reaching the 1.1670 resistance zone, a level that previously triggered a sharp move to the downside on October 28th. If these conditions persist, and we observe a strong rejection once more, a downward move could ensue, targeting the ascending trendline support located near 1.1522. This zone is critical, as the sustained lack of new lower lows is essential for maintaining the longer-term bullish trend.

Adding pressure for a pullback, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached the 70 level, indicating overbought conditions. This will alert bears to potential shorting opportunities from the current resistance. The 100-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) are closely clustered at 1.1588 and 1.1583, respectively. A decisive close below these MAs would likely act as a magnet, accelerating the price action toward the downside. Conversely, an upward break above the 1.1670 resistance level would invalidate the bearish setup, potentially opening the path for a more pronounced rally.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.1670

Target price: 1.1522

Stop loss: 1.1710

Validity: Dec 16, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Forex

Summary:

GBP/USD is trading around 1.3350–1.3345, supported by a broad dollar weakening trend and strength in GBP from positive UK data. The pair is showing bullish structure on higher timeframes and early signs of bullish momentum...

BUY GBPUSD

EXP

TRADING

1.33486

Entry Price

1.33850

1.33150

1.33502 +0.00231 +0.17%

0.0

Pips

Flat

1.33150

Exit Price

1.33486

Entry Price

1.33850

Overview

On 4 December, GBP/USD continues to benefit from a softer USD. The weak‐dollar environment is reinforced by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates soon, which reduces USD yield appeal and pushes money toward higher-yield or more stable‐currency alternatives like GBP. At the same time, GBP is supported by improved market sentiment toward UK assets after recently strong business activity data and a stable macro backdrop in the UK. As a result, GBP/USD has recovered from earlier dips and is now hovering near the upper end of recent ranges around 1.3345–1.3355. This context provides a reasonable fundamental backing for a bullish stance, rather than relying purely on technical bounce.

Market sentiment

Investor sentiment today appears to favor currencies other than USD, as dollar‐denominated assets lose support amid rate-cut expectations and uncertainty about US economic strength. Meanwhile, GBP benefits from a mixture of safe-haven rotation away from USD and renewed interest in sterling-denominated assets, given stable UK economic signals and less aggressive near-term rate-cut expectations for the Bank of England relative to peers. Market flows so far have shown buyers stepping in on dips notably around 1.3300–1.3320 which suggests confidence that GBP/USD may re-test recent highs, rather than collapse under volatility.

Technical analysis

GBP/USD push higher on dollar softness and renewed pound demand_1

On the M15 chart, GBP/USD has broken above the mid-band of the Bollinger channel and is now approaching the upper band, indicating short-term bullish momentum and potential for further upside. The expansion of the Bollinger bands suggests increasing volatility and room for price movement upward. Ichimoku (9,26,52) confirms the bullish tilt: price is well above both Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, both pointing upward; the Kumo ahead is rising and widening, signaling structural bullishness. This combination usually suggests that upward moves have strength and may continue. The Stochastic (5,3,3) recently crossed bullish from lower/mid area, supporting a continuation upward rather than representing an overbought reversal right now. The confluence of these three indicators on M15 suggests that GBP/USD has a decent chance to push toward near-term resistance again.

Trade idea

Entry: 1.3345 BUY GBP/USD

Take Profit: 1.3385

Stop Loss: 1.3315

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Forex

Summary:

USD/CHF is trading tightly around 0.8005–0.8010, hovering near multi-year lows as the US dollar continues to weaken. Markets maintain strong conviction that the Fed will cut rates in December, while geopolitical uncertainty in Europe is driving renewed safe-haven flows into the Swiss franc...

SELL USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.80048

Entry Price

0.79650

0.80350

0.80346 -0.00014 -0.02%

30.2

Pips

Loss

0.79650

0.80350

Exit Price

0.80048

Entry Price

0.80350

Overview

During today’s session, USD/CHF remains anchored near the 0.8005 region, a level that reflects both structural USD weakness and persistent CHF demand. US macro data this week has reinforced dovish expectations: softer manufacturing indicators, cooling labour-market signals, and increasingly cautious commentary from Fed officials have strengthened the market’s belief that a December rate cut is now the base case. Treasury yields remain subdued, limiting any possibility of a USD rebound. At the same time, Switzerland continues to benefit from risk-averse flows as geopolitical tensions rise across Europe, particularly following escalated rhetoric from Russian officials regarding EU actions on frozen assets. The franc’s reputation as a crisis stabiliser draws steady inflows, further pressuring USD/CHF. All of this leaves the pair unable to reclaim the 0.8030–0.8050 zone despite intraday attempts, suggesting that macro forces remain firmly skewed toward CHF strength.

Market sentiment

Investor psychology today is defined by a quiet but persistent drift away from USD-denominated assets. Markets appear comfortable adding short-USD exposure ahead of tomorrow’s US labour data, anticipating a print that reinforces the case for immediate Fed easing. Equity sentiment is mixed, with gains capped by geopolitical concerns, and safe-haven currencies such as CHF retain an advantage. The franc’s strength is also supported by Switzerland’s stable inflation trajectory and the SNB’s cautious stance on imported price pressures. Investors view CHF as a preferred shelter as long as global headlines remain unstable. The absence of any strong USD-supportive catalyst in recent days has created a sentiment environment where even modest risk aversion leads to immediate USD/CHF downside. Short-term positioning shows traders fading every incremental USD bounce, a pattern evident in the pair’s repeated inability to break above intraday resistance.

Technical analysis

Dollar–Franc slides toward multi-year lows as USD weakens on firm rate-cut expectations_1

On the M15 timeframe, USD/CHF exhibits a clean bearish structure. Price is hugging the lower half of the Bollinger channel, with the mid-band near 0.8018 acting as consistent dynamic resistance. Each attempt to reclaim that mid-band has been rejected with small-bodied candles, indicating fading buyer strength. The lower Bollinger band around 0.7980 remains exposed and is likely to be tested if momentum continues. Ichimoku confirms this negative bias: price sits firmly below both the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, which are now aligned downward in a bearish configuration. The forward Kumo is thin and declining, indicating that upward corrections lack structural support. The Tenkan-sen has flattened while still below the Kijun-sen, typically signalling a continuation phase rather than a reversal. Stochastic (5,3,3) has completed a bearish crossover after briefly touching the mid-zone, reinforcing the view that sellers are regaining control. The oscillator has room to extend lower, giving space for a continuation move rather than an overextended decline. Together, these indicators point toward renewed downside pressure with limited obstacles until the next support zone.

Trade idea

Entry: 0.8008

Take Profit: 0.7965

Stop Loss: 0.8035

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The New Zealand Dollar climbed back toward five-month highs as markets reassess Fed easing prospects, while the RBNZ’s policy stance and leadership shift provide a supportive backdrop.

BUY NZDUSD

EXP

TRADING

0.57651

Entry Price

0.59900

0.56500

0.57792 +0.00176 +0.31%

0.0

Pips

Flat

0.56500

Exit Price

0.57651

Entry Price

0.59900

The New Zealand Dollar strengthened in early European trading on Thursday, stabilizing above the mid-0.5700s and briefly advancing toward the 0.5780 region—levels last seen nearly five months ago. The rebound reflects a broader recalibration in FX markets as traders weigh growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts against a structurally more resilient policy stance from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

The US Dollar attempted a modest comeback after the People’s Bank of China set the daily USD/CNY midpoint higher than markets anticipated, signaling Beijing’s unease with excessive yuan weakness. Typically, a stronger fixing would offer the Greenback some breathing room, but the reaction proved limited and short-lived. Markets remain firmly anchored to the evolving US macro narrative, where softening labor data continues to reinforce the case for earlier and deeper Fed rate cuts.

This week's ADP report—a widely tracked proxy for private-sector hiring—showed an unexpected contraction in November employment. This surprise decline has amplified concerns that the US labor market, long considered the backbone of the US economic resilience, may be losing momentum more rapidly than anticipated. For Fed officials, who meet next week, the data adds pressure to pivot toward easier monetary policy sooner rather than later.

Traders are now pricing a meaningful probability of a rate cut as early as next week, with several more expected throughout next year. From a market psychology standpoint, sentiment toward the US Dollar remains firmly capped by falling Treasury yields, a moderating inflation trajectory, and weakening labor indicators.

Domestically, the New Zealand Dollar enjoyed an additional boost following a significant leadership change at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Anna Breman, formerly the Deputy Governor of Sweden’s Riksbank, has taken the helm as RBNZ Governor, replacing Adrian Orr.

Breman inherits an institution that has already moved into a late-cycle pause after delivering a rate cut in November and signaling the end of its easing phase. This stance stands in contrast to the Federal Reserve, which appears increasingly poised to shift into a full easing cycle next year. That divergence remains structurally supportive for the New Zealand Dollar, particularly given New Zealand’s relatively firmer inflation outlook and a labor market that has not deteriorated as sharply as its US counterpart.

While New Zealand’s economic calendar offers little additional guidance this week, global markets will pivot sharply toward Friday’s long-delayed US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index—Washington’s preferred inflation gauge. Economists expect the report to show inflation cooling but still sticky above the Fed’s 2% target. A hotter-than-expected print could easily reignite US Dollar strength and challenge NZD/USD’s recent breakout, while a soft reading may accelerate bullish momentum.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, NZD/USD has staged a decisive breakout above its multi-week descending channel, signaling a notable shift in market structure from bearish to bullish. Price action has established a consistent rhythm of higher highs and higher lows, supported by a clean break above the 50-day EMA—a key indicator watched by momentum traders.

The pair is currently undergoing a retest of the former channel resistance, now flipped into support near 0.5770–0.5780. A successful confirmation of this level would likely embolden buyers and open the path toward the next major resistance zone around 0.5990—a region that also aligns with a psychological round-number barrier and a prior supply zone visible on the daily chart.

Momentum indicators remain constructive, suggesting the market could sustain upward pressure as long as price holds above 0.5730. However, the upcoming US PCE release represents a potential volatility catalyst that could either validate the breakout or trigger a corrective pullback.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY NZDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.57650

STOP LOSS: 0.5650

TAKE PROFIT: 0.5990

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

USD/JPY slid to two-week lows as dovish Fed expectations, soft US data, and political uncertainty around future Fed leadership outweighed support from the Bank of Japan’s tightening signals.

SELL USDJPY

EXP

TRADING

154.800

Entry Price

151.500

156.500

155.182 +0.074 +0.05%

0.0

Pips

Flat

151.500

Exit Price

154.800

Entry Price

156.500

USD/JPY extended its decline on Thursday, sinking to fresh two-week lows as renewed expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, weaker US data, and political speculation weighing on the dollar overshadowed early support from the Bank of Japan.

The pair’s early Asian-session rebound stalled at 155.50, a level that has repeatedly capped upside attempts this week. The failure to break higher triggered renewed selling pressure during the European session, pushing USD/JPY through Monday’s low of 154.65 and briefly touching the 154.50 region—a level last seen two weeks ago.

The move reflects a broader shift in sentiment: the market has gradually unwound dollar-long positions, with investors increasingly convinced that the Federal Reserve will begin easing as early as next week. Even cautious remarks from the Bank of Japan were not enough to reverse the trend.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda offered a mild lift to the dollar earlier in the day, signalling that the BOJ remains committed to tightening policy in the coming months. Ueda reiterated that Japan is transitioning away from its ultra-loose monetary stance, though he admitted uncertainty regarding how far interest rates might eventually rise. Markets viewed his comments as supportive of gradual yen strength, but not forceful enough to materially shift the near-term policy divergence narrative.

What truly weighed on the dollar, however, was renewed pressure on the Federal Reserve’s credibility and trajectory. ADP employment data, released Wednesday, showed an unexpected contraction in private payrolls for November—adding to signs that the US labour market is beginning to cool more rapidly than anticipated. The sudden deterioration increased expectations that the Fed will deliver not just one cut, but potentially signal a broader easing cycle heading into Q1.

Traders are now watching Thursday’s US Jobless Claims, which could reinforce the growing case for easier policy. But the data may only serve as a prelude to the week’s main event: the long-delayed US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for September, scheduled for release Friday. With inflation softening and labour market conditions weakening, a dovish shift from the Fed appears increasingly likely.

Adding another layer of uncertainty, speculation surfaced in Washington that Kevin Hassett, former White House economic adviser under Donald Trump, may be under consideration to replace Jerome Powell when the Fed Chair’s term expires in May. According to a Financial Times report, Hassett would be expected to pursue a significantly more accommodative policy agenda aligned with Trump’s preference for low rates and cheap borrowing conditions.

That report rattled fixed-income markets—already sensitive to political interference in monetary policy—and intensified bearish pressure on the US Dollar. Bond investors expressed concern that a shift toward politically motivated easing could weaken the dollar’s structural support at a time when fiscal risks remain elevated.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY is showing clear signs of a deeper bearish correction after repeated failures to sustain gains above the 155.50–156.00 resistance band. Momentum has shifted firmly toward the downside, with the H4 chart forming a succession of lower highs, indicating fading bullish pressure.

A decisive break below 154.50 would likely accelerate downside momentum, opening the door toward 152.80, which aligns with a significant Fibonacci and structural support zone. A deeper extension could target the 151.50 region—an area where buyers previously defended aggressively following April’s BOJ-related volatility.

For now, the bearish outlook remains intact as long as the pair trades below 156.50, a level that would need to be reclaimed to neutralize downside risk and restore bullish momentum.